Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@anonymous234 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I KNEW IT. LOUD PEOPLE ARE FUCKING KILLING US.
That doesn't mean you should shout. In fact, it means you shouldn't.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@anonymous234 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I KNEW IT. LOUD PEOPLE ARE FUCKING KILLING US.
That doesn't mean you should shout. In fact, it means you shouldn't.
Huh? Couldn't hear you, too busy wiping @anonymous234's spit off my face
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@izzion Whisper mode.
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@anonymous234 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.) Singing may release more virus than speaking, which could help explain the choir outbreaks. People’s behavior also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus.
I KNEW IT. LOUD PEOPLE ARE FUCKING KILLING US.
I've been calling to deport them for years, but nobody listened to me.
This kind of explains why the US has been hit so hard.
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@Mason_Wheeler said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@magnusmaster That doesn't surprise me. I've lived in LA, I've visited NYC on various different occasions, but despite having a lower population than either one, Buenos Aires just felt more full to me, packed with people everywhere I went.
The population density of the city proper (13,680/km^2) is indeed higher than LA (3,124/km^2) and even NYC (10,715/km^2).
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@hungrier said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Mason_Wheeler said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@magnusmaster That doesn't surprise me. I've lived in LA, I've visited NYC on various different occasions, but despite having a lower population than either one, Buenos Aires just felt more full to me, packed with people everywhere I went.
The population density of the city proper (13,680/km^2) is indeed higher than LA (3,124/km^2) and even NYC (10,715/km^2).
Hmm, TIL.
Though, when I refer to NYC's density I try to be careful and say it is the densest (in more ways than one ) city in the US.
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@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
densest (in more ways than one )
I'd make a comment about your mayor, but this isn't the Garage.
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
densest (in more ways than one )
I'd make a comment about your mayor, but this isn't the Garage.
I'm pretty sure that is considered a fact even by most people in NYC.
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@Karla
One of the great paradoxes of English: the densest people have the most empty air between their ears
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Why is your troll-face less wrinkly? Is that an artifact of ’s age?
Hey! I might resemble that remark.
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Did we have this study already?
Seems the side-effects rather outweigh the benefits because it's still not proven to be an effective cure...
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Took a walk downtown today, everything was full, no more obvious signs of lockdown besides some masks. Which is good, I guess.
But I’m starting to feel the masks were a bad idea. Supposedly we should have gone from “keep distance” to “keep distance and wear masks”, but it seems like nobody is keeping their distance anymore. And then there was this one guy who was merrily walking through the supermarket without a mask at all, and I’m wondering “why did they let you in?!”
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@JBert with so many people testing HCQ right now, it's very likely someone ends up with p<0.05 by pure chance every week. Also, I heard from one wise cartoonist that the studies which found positive effects (of which there are also many, for the same reason) tested HCQ together with zinc, as this is what's believed to actually work. The studies debunking HCQ's positive effects almost always test it in isolation.
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@error_bot !xkcd significant
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@anonymous234 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.) Singing may release more virus than speaking, which could help explain the choir outbreaks. People’s behavior also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus.
I KNEW IT. LOUD PEOPLE ARE FUCKING KILLING US.
I've been calling to deport them for years, but nobody listened to me.
This kind of explains why the US has been hit so hard.
Especially New York!
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@error_bot !xkcd significant
I wanted to link that but I figured I'm using @error_bot too much lately and it might annoy some people.
It's not my fault there's xkcd for everything!
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@JBert with so many people testing HCQ right now, it's very likely someone ends up with p<0.05 by pure chance every week. Also, I heard from one wise cartoonist that the studies which found positive effects (of which there are also many, for the same reason) tested HCQ together with zinc, as this is what's believed to actually work. The studies debunking HCQ's positive effects almost always test it in isolation.
And/or the studies debunking HCQ/Zpak are only giving it to people who are already intubated or on the cusp of intubation, while the studies showing effectiveness are generally giving people the drugs as soon as they get hospitalized or have symptoms severe enough to merit testing.
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@izzion basically - lies, damned lies, and statistics.
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@boomzilla Well, it stands to reason - I mean if our current antibody tests have problems with specificity there's no reason why our body's antibodies couldn't be similarly onfused".
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Why is your troll-face less wrinkly? Is that an artifact of ’s age?
I don't think he's much older than I am. Though I'm better than most people at avoiding sun.
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@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@anonymous234 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Individual patients’ characteristics play a role as well. Some people shed far more virus, and for a longer period of time, than others, perhaps because of differences in their immune system or the distribution of virus receptors in their body. A 2019 study of healthy people showed some breathe out many more particles than others when they talk. (The volume at which they spoke explained some of the variation.) Singing may release more virus than speaking, which could help explain the choir outbreaks. People’s behavior also plays a role. Having many social contacts or not washing your hands makes you more likely to pass on the virus.
I KNEW IT. LOUD PEOPLE ARE FUCKING KILLING US.
I've been calling to deport them for years, but nobody listened to me.
This kind of explains why the US has been hit so hard.
Especially New York!
Fucking me. I am loud.
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@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I don't think he's much older than I am.
I don't know how old you are, but I'm older than I look. At least I think I look younger than my real age, mostly due to the fact that my hair is still more blond than gray. Most people my age are completely gray.
Though I'm better than most people at avoiding sun.
I used to be quite the sun worshiper, though carefully, for only a little while at a time, because I burned very quickly. Not so much these days, mostly because almost everything in my life revolves around a computer, which is an indoor activity.
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I don't think he's much older than I am.
I don't know how old you are, but I'm older than I look. At least I think I look younger than my real age, mostly due to the fact that my hair is still more blond than gray. Most people my age are completely gray.
Though I'm better than most people at avoiding sun.
I used to be quite the sun worshiper, though carefully, for only a little while at a time, because I burned very quickly. Not so much these days, mostly because almost everything in my life revolves around a computer, which is an indoor activity.
I'm 48 but most people think I'm about 10 years younger.
When the big kids were younger I've been asked several times if I was their sister. I'm also pretty sure I was mistaken for the oldest's girlfriend.
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@Karla I'm ... well, let's just say more than a decade older than you. Although, as I said, I don't think I look it. I have a lot of gray, but it's almost uniformly distributed through the darkish blond, so it doesn't show all that much, except in my beard.
I've always looked younger than I am. When I was in 6th grade, I was mistaken for a kindergartner. When I was younger, I hated that. Now, I don't mind so much.
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla I'm ... well, let's just say more than a decade older than you. Although, as I said, I don't think I look it. I have a lot of gray, but it's almost uniformly distributed through the darkish blond, so it doesn't show all that much, except in my beard.
I've always looked younger than I am. When I was in 6th grade, I was mistaken for a kindergartner. When I was younger, I hated that. Now, I don't mind so much.
Yeah, I hated it in school. My older girls have that problem as they are shorter than I am, so at 25 they are still getting mistaken for HS kids depending upon make up and clothing.
When women are younger they use makeup to look older, when older using makeup to look younger.
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
my life revolves around a computer, which is an indoor activity.
Okay, okay, if you insist:
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@Gurth said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Okay, okay, if you insist:
Well, I could theoretically take my work laptop outside, but that doesn't work so well with 2 external monitors, keyboard and mouse (and it's pretty much unusable without at least one external monitor). And non-work stuff is on my desktop, which also doesn't work so well outside. The computer room is hot enough it might as well be outside in the
summerit's still only spring; 🌡, but it's rather lacking in direct (and , which is definitely a good thing).
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If they’re that into technology life hacks, somebody should introduce them to the discs from inside a hard drive. Granted, also a little more difficult to get at, but what do you want? Everything?
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Gurth said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
INB4: that thread is
:arrows:
Years ago, we made Christmas ornaments out of the discs we had laying around.
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Someone I know is stuck in a country on the other side of the world (went there with family for 6 months, but now who knows how long it'll be...?).
They sent an email the other day asking the embassy which companies were still flying/planning to fly in the next future to France. The embassy response, apart from standard filler, was two words: "
Company X
." (yes, dot included)Well at least they won't spend too much time comparing flights...
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
They sent an email the other day asking the embassy which companies were still flying/planning to fly in the next future to France. The embassy response, apart from standard filler, was two words: "
Company X
." (yes, dot included)Reminds me of a story I read on the internet forever ago. In Polish higher education, there's an informal tradition that students who get very good grades often don't have to write the final exam - but due to how grading works here, it's always only a few people for each course. But the exemption from final exam isn't formalized at all and it's all up to the professor to decide.
So anyway, one time a few students who had A+ grades all semester wanted to capitalize on it. The professor didn't say anything about giving out exemptions, but didn't say anything about not giving them out - so they decided to test their luck and write him an email. It was a long winded email full of formalities and repeating what an honor it would be, how much they'd appreciate it.
The professor replied:
Dear students,
No.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Unexposed – as in living in complete isolation since last November, so they definitely couldn't encounter even a single particle – or that were not sick – which means they could have encountered a few particles here or there, which could have triggered the response without them ever becoming ill with it?
Edit: Hm, after scanning the article it looks like they've actually used old samples from before the virus first appeared, so they really couldn't have been exposed.
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Florida update, now 3 weeks after we started opening up:
Cases have risen slightly and stabilized, but that's because of vastly increased testing. % positive is still falling.
No numbers for the last week, but I expect them to be up with the previous week.
So no huge spike after reopening.
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So asymptomatic people don't seem to be that contagious after all.
Pull quote:
In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
They did a contact trace study of 455 people who were around asymptomatic but infected people and who developed COVID-19 like symptoms. Not one of the suspected cases was really COVID-19.
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Takeaway--the standard models suck and aren't accounting for lots of things. In ways that bias them high. Shockingly.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
They did a contact trace study of 455 people who were around asymptomatic but infected people and who developed COVID-19 like symptoms. Not one of the suspected cases was really COVID-19.
They studied 455 traced contacts of ONE asymptomatic patient and cite two studies supporting infection by asymptomatic carriers being relevant in the intro.
So I wouldn't bet too much on it....
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
So asymptomatic people don't seem to be that contagious after all.
Pull quote:
In summary, all the 455 contacts were excluded from SARS-CoV-2 infection and we conclude that the infectivity of some asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 carriers might be weak.
They did a contact trace study of 455 people who were around asymptomatic but infected people and who developed COVID-19 like symptoms. Not one of the suspected cases was really COVID-19.
Over here they're still assuming it transfers via fluid droplets expelled when sneezing, but also when talking. Apparently asymptomatic carriers are mainly risky if you spend a long while talking to them in a badly ventilated room.
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@Sumy But in a group of 455 contacts, if not a single person actually contracted it, then you've got one of two cases
- this particular person was an anomaly. By a huge margin.
- it's not as infectious (when asymptomatic) as believed.
- (bonus) there's significant innate immunity (so transmission occurred but didn't result in actual infection). That's also a possibility, and a good one for everyone (because it dramatically lowers the threshold for herd immunity.
And those earlier studies had issues as well--many used self-reports for asymptomatic-ness (turns out a lot of those weren't really asymptomatic) and they were low-N as well.
Basic sense says that someone with low viral load (correlated with being asymptomatic, but not 100%) is going to be less infectious than someone with high viral load. And if you're asymptomatic, then you're not coughing significantly, which reduces (but does not eliminate) droplet spread even at constant viral load.
Now sure, we've got lots of cases of diseases that spread before symptoms appear. So it wouldn't be a surprise if SARS-COV-2 was. But it should be reduced significantly (based on other patterns). And other SARS variants weren't transmissible while asymptomatic at all, so there's evidence pointing in the other direction.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Sumy But in a group of 455 contacts, if not a single person actually contracted it, then you've got one of two cases
- this particular person was an anomaly. By a huge margin.
That's not necessarily so unlikely, since "anomaly" refers here to the average contamination rate, but we have no idea what the variance is (and this kind of study is probably one of the elements that'll be used to try and pin that down...). I have no idea how those 455 contacts were identified but there are many ways a person could live and have many "contacts" without those being long or close enough to transmit the virus -- and next to them could live another person who only has 5 or 10 contacts, but close and long ones that transmit the virus.
(edit: even just that number of 455 makes me doubt they were all very close, I can't see how you can get that many contacts from a single person unless you are either in a very particular situation (e.g. sailors enclosed in the same ship) or count very loose contacts!)
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Sumy But in a group of 455 contacts, if not a single person actually contracted it, then you've got one of two cases
- this particular person was an anomaly. By a huge margin.
That's not necessarily so unlikely, since "anomaly" refers here to the average contamination rate, but we have no idea what the variance is (and this kind of study is probably one of the elements that'll be used to try and pin that down...). I have no idea how those 455 contacts were identified but there are many ways a person could live and have many "contacts" without those being long or close enough to transmit the virus -- and next to them could live another person who only has 5 or 10 contacts, but close and long ones that transmit the virus.
True. But huge variance means that locking everyone down is even less effective (unless you can hermetically seal everyone off until a perfect vaccine is developed).
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@Benjamin-Hall A high variance just says that locking some people (those with a naturally high number of contaminations, whatever causes it) and letting the rest loose would be very effective. But of course unless we know everything about the contamination pathways, there is no way to identify effectively that group...
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@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Years ago, we made Christmas ornaments out of the discs we had laying around.
It wasn't just you, that was kind of a fashion.
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
They sent an email the other day asking the embassy which companies were still flying/planning to fly in the next future to France. The embassy response, apart from standard filler, was two words: "
Company X
." (yes, dot included)Reminds me of a story I read on the internet forever ago. In Polish higher education, there's an informal tradition that students who get very good grades often don't have to write the final exam - but due to how grading works here, it's always only a few people for each course. But the exemption from final exam isn't formalized at all and it's all up to the professor to decide.
So anyway, one time a few students who had A+ grades all semester wanted to capitalize on it. The professor didn't say anything about giving out exemptions, but didn't say anything about not giving them out - so they decided to test their luck and write him an email. It was a long winded email full of formalities and repeating what an honor it would be, how much they'd appreciate it.
The professor replied:
Dear students,
No.
He should be promoted to Dean for his brevity.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall A high variance just says that locking some people (those with a naturally high number of contaminations, whatever causes it) and letting the rest loose would be very effective. But of course unless we know everything about the contamination pathways, there is no way to identify effectively that group...
That's the point. Since that's unknowable, the options come down to
- lock everyone down completely 100% until extinguished/perfect vaccine (not practical)
- take sensible precautions (few/no large enclosed gatherings, protecting elder-care as much as possible, masks on public transport) and generally open up, accepting that there will be non-zero fatalities for a while.