A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted
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I invested last year around November about £500 and pulled out at about £15000 / BTC. I've got about £6k in coinbase after the fall to 6K last week, then the short bullish run and I put a stop limit sell at about £8200 as I the price was surging and there is always a massive fall just after a surge. I've been mostly lucky so far.
One of the things that really annoys me is there are a lot of sites saying "There is this bearish signal bla bla bla", this probably works well with traditional stocks, currencies etc. But crypto isn't. I see this shite on sites like coindesk and they have been wrong almost everytime in the last few months.
The main thing to consider is market confidence as that causes people to buy in / sell out.
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@dcoder Wondering how he powers that thing. A 1080Ti consumes around 170 Watt when doing CAD (shader) work and around 250 Watt when running full-tilt.
This would mean 22 kW at medium and 32.5 kW at high load.
Over here, the usual connection to the mains has a maximum rating of 63A per phase (i.e. about 14.5 kW @230 V). Which means that this idiot has to play around with the connectors to a three-phase outlet...
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@godemperor said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
I invested last year around November
Of course you did. And of course you'd choose to bring that you on the thread specifically for discussing how crypto users are,as the title says, "fools"
You dumb cunt
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@lorne-kates I invested a 2 days worth of money and got a months worth's back. It didn't end up badly for me.
All I was pointing out is that like anything that is new (once upon a time the IT industry was like this, remember the dot com boom and bust), idiots will invest in anything that is cool. I invested knowing I would make a modest profit and did better due to the bullish trend towards september and got out when the writing was on the wall.
Investing in something known isn't foolish if you can afford to lose it. I could afford to invest and I made a lot back on my initial investment.
All I did was tell you my experience with investing, trading and getting out of the market. I had even admitted that I was lucky to get on the bandwagon when I did.
I wasn't be rude, I was just telling people here my experience of the crypto market. There is no need to be rude.
I hope you have a nice weekend :)
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@lucas1 Just to be clear.
I think Crypto is very risky and whenever I made any sort of investment I was using a well known exchange, I had only put relatively small amount of money in and I always had a "Stop Limit" this is a price I am willing to sell out on the exchange
i.e. as mentioned previously last week the GBP / BTC price got to about $8400 / BTC. I reinvested about a week and a half earlier and decided that I made about £1500-1600 overall, it would be better just to put a stop limit at 8400. I had made money and if in the next day or two the price plunged, I would pay a small fee (£8 in total) I would be still £1490 at up at least. The price did plunge to 7600 / BTC the next day and I was okay because I was sold out automatically at £8350 / BTC.
Our friend @Lorne-Kates doesn't seem to understand that anyone that is sensible with money (I have become much better over the years) mitigates risks.
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
Our friend @Lorne-Kates doesn't seem to understand that anyone that is sensible with money
Yeah but your brain is made of jell-o, it's hard to imagine you coming ahead in any pursuit that requires any sort of rational thought.
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@blakeyrat LOL, at the end of the day results matter.
I've been doing pretty well mate. I made £500 in £6000 with some well timed choices and keeping up with the market. I ignored the bullshit candle stick chart analysis that doesn't really apply to the market and got a feel of confidence from looking at many news articles.
I also bet on Trump and Brexit being victorious and I made a fair amount out of the 2014 world cup and the Cheltenham races since 2013 (mainly because I worked in the gambling industry and I get the odd recommendation). Apart from the horse racing, I kept up with the players / politicians / political sentiment to get an idea of what would be likely to happen and I gambled accordingly.
Future Trading and Gambling aren't much different, it is mainly the class of the people that do it that differs IMO.
You can call me an idiot all day long. I was just telling people on this thread my honest experience of the crypto market so far. I said I was lucky and I pulled most of my money out and put what I have made into the savings.
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
LOL, at the end of the day results matter.
You realize I also turned $50 into $4500 on Bitcoins, right? Because you're probably about to type something stupid, not knowing that.
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@blakeyrat Good for you. Well done. We both done well out of it. Happy days ;-)
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@lucas1 It's good we have people like Lucas around to single-handedly destroy the general American stereotype that British people are intelligent.
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@blakeyrat said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@lucas1 It's good we have people like Lucas around to single-handedly destroy the general American stereotype that British people are intelligent.
We Europeans didn't need @lucas1 for that, Brexit was evidence enough :)
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@blakeyrat It's good we have people like blakeyrat around to single-handedly destroy the general British stereotype that American people are ....
Oh wait that doesn't work, because you are proving the stereotype, by just saying "you are a dumbass". BTW, I haven't actually heard one single concrete criticism of what I have said so far in this thread, other than you think I am stupid.
I made my money, I got out when the going was good. I have a £1000 in GDAX but I am out of the BTC market until it tanks again when there is a possibility of money.
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BTW @blakeyrat here is a nice upbeat tune to make you feel better:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iRMwBoHK78
Love you lots Blakey (lots of kisses xxxx)
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
The main thing to consider is market confidence as that causes people to buy in / sell out.
Filed under: #greaterFool #ponziScheme #tulipBulbs
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@izzion I admit I am making money on the exchange are you saying I am foolish by having made money? Or are you saying I am exploiting those that are investing in the exchange?
I worked in the gambling industry for 4 years, I understand how similar markets to crypto work. I knew it was risky so I put a modest amount of money in. I don't understand why I am getting such a abuse? Is it Jealously ... what is it?
I've completely got out of Bitcoin at the moment and left only £1000 of the £6000 I had in Coinbase.
EDIT: The £1000 that is in there isn't in GBP at the moment and I pulled out at 8400 which was near the start of the week.
I don't understand people calling me a dumbass for making money on a craze and then pulling my cash out near the peak.
I think it is jealously or they just wanna bitch. Whatever makes you feel better :)
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@lorne-kates ... There is no need to be rude
YMBNH.
@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@blakeyrat ... I haven't actually heard one single concrete criticism ... other than you think I am stupid
YMBNH.
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@anotherusername I deserved that, I was being naive.
You make money on something by taking the sensible road and assuming you are going to lose cash and budget for the lost cash.
Apparently that makes you a fucking idiot.
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@lucas1 well, I mean... the two people who you were talking to...
I'm not sure whether @izzion thinks you're an idiot... more like he was just pointing out that all Ponzi schemes work that way -- those who get out early enough will make money, and those who get caught holding the bag at the end will lose big. I personally think if you want to take a risky gamble with some money that you could afford to lose anyway, there's nothing wrong with it. Betting money that they can't afford to lose is what makes people idiots... especially on high-risk ventures where it's basically only a question of when it will crash, not if.
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@dcoder said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
You probably thought you weren't gonna get stoned out of your mind today… Surprise!
From the article:
The Crypto Sanctum’s menu, viewed by WIRED, subtly noted that some of the condiments served were “infused.” But some attendees said they did not see the menu or understand its message. A few menu items explicitly stated that they contain cannabis—cocktails, cannabis-marinated olives, and sugar for coffee and tea—but others simply say “infused” without explaining what the infusion is.
So it wasn't someone spiking it, some idiot in charge of the menu actually thought this was a good idea. And managed to get it approved. (Or, I suppose, was just given the job to do with no oversight whatsoever.)
(also, cannabis in the sugar for coffee and tea?! Sheesh.)
[Edit: more specifically, the catering contract was given to a company that basically specialises in this. That just about breaks my WTF-meter, starting with the fact that a company like that actually exists.]
The menu invites attendees to “experience inspiring culinary arts highlighting the benefits of herbs.”
"Herbs". Right.
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@timebandit "Hackers used a homograph attack by registering a domain identical to binance.com, but spelled with Latin-lookalike Unicode characters. More particularly, hackers registered the bịnạnce.com domain —notice the tiny dots under the "i" and "a" characters."
Stupid Unicode has to infect everything
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@rhywden said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@dcoder Wondering how he powers that thing. A 1080Ti consumes around 170 Watt when doing CAD (shader) work and around 250 Watt when running full-tilt.
hmm.
This would mean 22 kW at medium and 32.5 kW at high load.
Okay.
TLDR: He must be able to sell every BTC he mines, consistently, for at least:
- $209.20 / BTC to pay for electricity
- $509.10 / BTC to pay for electricity + the hardware (over 5 years)
- $1662.55 / BTC to pay for electricity + hardware + replace a $50k/year salary
- $2354.62 / BTC to pay for electricity + hardware + replace a $100k/year salary
Assuming NOTHING goes wrong ever.
Numbers
So, let's take Ontario's power rates:
- Peak (12 hours per day on weekdays) - $0.0132 / hWh
- MidPeak (6 hours per day on weekdays) - $0.095 / kWh
- OffPeak (6 hours per day on weekdays, 24 hours per day on weekends and stat holidays) - $0.065 / kWh
So 1 weekday is (USE * 0.0132 * 12) + (USE * 0.095 * 6) + (USE * 0.065 * 6)
And 1 weekend is (USE * 0.065 * 24)The week would be 5Weekday + 2Weekend
LOW = ((22 * 0.0132 * 12) + (22 * 0.095 * 6) + (22 * 0.065 * 6)) * 5) + ((22 * 0.065 * 24) * 2)
HIGH = ((32.5 * 0.0132 * 12) + (32.5 * 0.095 * 6) + (32.5 * 0.065 * 6)) * 5) + ((32.5 * 0.065 * 24) * 2)LOW per week is $304.26CAD
HIGH per week is $348.08CADTimes 52 weeks per year. That's $15,821.52 - $23,372.7 PER YEAR.
(benefit of the doubt, there is 0.5 stat holiday per month, and the difference between mixed vs. offpeak is ~$13 - $20.., so knock off $78-$120 / year)
Grand total: $15,641.52 - $23,372.7 per year in electricity costs. CAD - USD in today's exchange...
LOW: $12279.95 USD
HIGH: $18137.10 USDThose 1080TI seem to be ~$1000USD each... so:
FIXED COST: $130,000USD
VARIABLE PER YEAR COST: $12,279.95 - $18,137.10According to a blog, a that graphic card, at high rate and using a certain algo, can earn up to 0.00182711 BTC / day. http://cryptomining-blog.com/tag/gtx-1080-ti-hashrate/
Let's look at BTC values over the past year in USD:
BTC Low $1,000
BTC High $19,000
BTC AVG $10kSo per day, that's $237.52 - $4,512.96 (yes, I know BTC won't be hitting $19k per day, or staying at that value, but we're looking at ranges...).
Outcome: $86,696.37 / year - $1,647,231.02 / year at worst/best... average of $866,963.70 / year
So the realistic scenario is:
- he's in the red $130k for hardware (minimum)
- he'll be maxing these fuckers out (we know that), so $18,137.10 / year in 24/7 electricity for the cards alone
- If those calculations are correct, and he can sell every coin he mines for average $10k each, netting $866,963.70 / year
Well, it looks like profit? Assuming, of course:
- There's no additional hardware expenses (cooling, rent for wherever he is, hardware failure / replacement)
- He doesn't burn the whole place down and die in a fire.
- He doesn't electrocute himself to death
- BTC maintains that $10k average
- He can sell every coin he makes
- The selling fee isn't too high
- He doesn't get hacked or lose the coins in some other way.
BTC will need to maintain at least $209.20 / coin to just pay for the electricity for the cards.
If he bought the cards outright, and assuming no other investment opportunities, and he wants the cards to be paid off over 5 years (lets say this is a 5 year plan)... I'm assuming $130k / 5 per year to cover the cost of the cards... then to at least break even, he'll need coins to be $509.10 each.
Given the above, and assuming he's loosing-- what's fair, $50k a year by this being his fulltime job and not working? Okay, rule of thumb is "make double your salary before quitting your job" to cover insurance, expenses, tax, etc. That's, uhh-- $100k.
Now he needs BTC to be $1662.55 to break even.
If he's as smart as he thinks he is, and could be doing an $80k/year salary... BTC value of $2354.62.
Over here, the usual connection to the mains has a maximum rating of 63A per phase (i.e. about 14.5 kW @230 V). Which means that this idiot has to play around with the connectors to a three-phase outlet...
Okay, so chances are he will die from electrocution before he makes a profit. Gotcha.
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@GodEmperor said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
I invested a 2 days worth of money ... idiots will invest in anything that is cool
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
I made £500 in £6000
And I made ~$10k in bonus-hustling online blackjack. 12 years ago. What's your point?
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@GodEmperor said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
because you are proving the stereotype, by just saying "you are a dumbass"
Yeah, Blakey! Be all right and proper and call Lucas by his distinguished British name of "stupid fucking cunt".
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@lucas1 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
I don't understand
You should just put that in your signature TBH IMO
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@lorne-kates If BTC stay at 10K for long enough, more people will start mining, and the difficulty will go up. There is a tendency of the difficulty to mine to match the electricity cost in the long run. The only reason he'll make a profit is because NVidia can't produce enough of these video cards.
When GPU mining gets unprofitable, I think there'll be a lot of cheap used second hand videocards for us.
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@anotherusername said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
Bitcoin is more sanitary, though... you know everywhere that it's been.
Uh. One does not imply the other. You know if it's more sanitary.
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@sockpuppet7 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
When GPU mining gets unprofitable, I think there'll be a lot of cheap used second hand videocards for us.
... which will be completely outdated and unable to keep up with any (then) recent games by the time that happens :(
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@ixvedeusi said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
... which will be completely outdated and unable to keep up with any (then) recent games by the time that happens
Whatever. My Radeon 5800 hasn't caused me any issues in anything I play
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@lorne-kates In the US you need to add the risk of the DEA raiding your place thinking it's a marijuana grow op.
EDIT: seriously though, a few fixed costs you missed:
- Electrical work to get enough independent circuits in one part of the house, probably at least $2500
- The PC motherboards to drive those cards-- the good news is that ASUS makes this thing for him ($180 x 10):
https://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16813119028&ignorebbr=1&nm_mc=KNC-GoogleAdwords-PC&cm_mmc=KNC-GoogleAdwords-PC--pla--Motherboards+-+Intel-_-N82E16813119028&gclid=CjwKCAjwypjVBRANEiwAJAxlIgzVikBRxTbLvauRX1fAUUC9dQlKyPPrBQrOFy8NJ0ImDaQ-jgBkWhoCgScQAvD_BwE&gclsrc=aw.ds
(Good jorb detecting links there, broken NodeBB regex. "Gee", moron open source developer says, "can you have two dashes in a row in a link!? My idiot mind is blown.")
- The CPU/memory to populate those motherboards. (Say $250 x 10)
- The risers needed to cable the motherboards to the GPUs (about $30/pop on Amazon so not too much $$$ here.)
EDIT EDIT: also those cards aren't going to last 5 years going full-tilt. The cards have a 3-year-warranty, so it's reasonable to assume 100% GPU coverage for 3 years though. (Barring time it takes to do RMAs.)
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@sockpuppet7 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@timebandit "Hackers used a homograph attack by registering a domain identical to binance.com, but spelled with Latin-lookalike Unicode characters. More particularly, hackers registered the bịnạnce.com domain —notice the tiny dots under the "i" and "a" characters."
Stupid Unicode has to infect everything
No, they registered xn--bnnce-k11b2l.com.
Maybe the users who clicked on the link should've paid more attention to where they ended up.
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@dcon said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@anotherusername said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
Bitcoin is more sanitary, though... you know everywhere that it's been.
Uh. One does not imply the other. You know if it's more sanitary.
Well, it's more sanitary because there's nothing physical to pick up germs... but facts are a
to my 
!
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@blakeyrat
And that also assumes that NVidia’s warranty doesn’t explicitly exclude cards used for mining (or have some implicit exclusion which can be stretched to cover).
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@izzion said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
@blakeyrat
And that also assumes that NVidia’s warranty doesn’t explicitly exclude cards used for mining (or have some implicit exclusion which can be stretched to cover).Well I'm not gonna actually read it, because that's boring.
That said, any company that offers a warranty should cover 24/7/365 usage as part of that. When Ford draws up a car warranty, they know a taxi company could be driving that car constantly, it's just part of the business.
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@blakeyrat
Yeah, I don't know either, I also would be far too bored trying to read their warranty.It would seem to me there could be legal grounds in there that using the cards for mining would be outside of the purpose they were intended for, and/or mining winds up operating them at higher sustained voltages then they're rated for, etc. But as to whether or not NVidia / AMD would/could exclude the cards from warranty service or give them a shorter warranty if they're used for mining, I don't know. Just figured it would be funny to drive-by troll a little :P
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@izzion said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
It would seem to me there could be legal grounds in there that using the cards for mining would be outside of the purpose they were intended for,
That'd be a hard sell in 2018 when people have been using them for mining for over 5 years.
@izzion said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
and/or mining winds up operating them at higher sustained voltages then they're rated for, etc.
Well I assumed Miner Joe there isn't overclocking the cards. That would void the warranty.
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@sockpuppet7 said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
If BTC stay at 10K for long enough, more people will start mining, and the difficulty will go up.
fersure. This is all "best case scenario". If literally anything goes wrong in the plan-- btc/day estimates go down, value plunges, electricity goes up, hardware blows out-- hell, even if he loses a couple days per year to power outages-- he's probably fucked.
edit plus all the startup costs and roadblocks Blakeyrat mentioned: https://what.thedailywtf.com/post/1320080
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@lorne-kates Just FYI you already can't mine bitcoin using GPUs.
As a general rule, any currency that has ASICs available can't be mined practically using GPUs. ASICs quickly push the difficulty far past what is profitable for GPUs.
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@blakeyrat said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
Well I assumed Miner Joe there isn't overclocking the cards. That would void the warranty.
The linked blog was only clocking stock. I wouldn't put it past Miner Joe to overclock because profit.
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Re: Warranty
"Warranted Product is intended for consumer end user purposes only, and is not intended for datacenter use and/or GPU cluster commercial deployments ("Enterprise Use"). Any use of Warranted Product for Enterprise Use shall void this warranty."
He might get away with RMAing one or two video cards. If he starts sending in dozens, I think they'll get suspicious.
Re: 3 year lifespan
If he's going to run this scam for 3 years instead of 5, it ups the minimum-price-per-BTC by ~$200.
To break even in a Perfect Scenario, BTC needs to stay average $2554.55 / coin.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g6iDZspbRMg
#CRAEFULGANG
#CRAEFULGANG
#CRAEFULGANG
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@ben_lubar Why anyone watches that guy I have no idea.
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@lucas1 I'm ok with most of his schtick until he does the thing where they put someone's photo in the little infobox and he yells at it. It's usually a kid but this time it was the annoying Bitcoin employee guy. That is so unfunny it takes all my willpower to not turn it off instantly. He does that like 5 times in this story. Ugh.
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@blakeyrat said in A fool and his not-really-money are soon parted:
(Good jorb detecting links there, broken NodeBB regex. "Gee", moron open source developer says, "can you have two dashes in a row in a link!? My idiot mind is blown.")
There's some excuse puzrin gave as to why it's broken... I think it amounted to "it's too hard to fix at this time".
The workaround is to escape the
_with a backslash:Funny why did it onebox my link but not yours...?
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@julianlam Maybe someone should write an actual, you know, formal grammar for when something is considered emphasis, or bold, or a link, or whatever and write a parser according to that, instead of things weirdly interacting with each other all the time.
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Oh, I'm not saying the bug is excusable, I'm just saying that's how it is (and the parsing itself is upstream from NodeBB).
We could try monkeypatching it, though.
