The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread
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AI-Powered Software Delivery Company Predicts 'The End of Programming' - Slashdot
Matt Welsh is the CEO and co-founder of Fixie.ai, an AI-powered software delivery company founded by a team from Google and Apple. "I believe the conventional idea of 'writing a program' is headed for extinction," he opines in January's Communications of the ACM, "and indeed, for all but very...
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The engineers of the future will, in a few keystrokes, fire up an instance of a four-quintillion-parameter model that already encodes the full extent of human knowledge (and then some), ready to be given any task required of the machine.
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@HardwareGeek said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
The engineers of the future will, in a few keystrokes, fire up an instance of a four-quintillion-parameter model that already encodes the full extent of human knowledge (and then some), ready to be given any task required of the machine.
I think the best we could hope for would be when someone says "Alexa, play a random song" they get Rick Rolled.
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Prediction: I will upgrade WTDWTF's version of NodeBB.
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This is just the most recent iteration of the wild claim that's been kicking around since at least the 90s that [insert new technology here] will make it trivial for non-programmers to develop new software. And it's never panned out.
Star Trek: The Next Generation gave us a very interesting look at what something actually delivering on this promise would look like with its Holodeck concept. It also, in the classic episode Elementary, My Dear Data, showed that the premise remains fatally flawed even in the show's ideal presentation: if your developer isn't very careful in getting the specification precisely, pedantically correct, you still end up with an end product with potentially-fatal bugs in it!
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@izzion I predict (wrongly, with overwhelming likelihood) that, unless new sources like NFT-alikes or similar are invented soon, we’ll reach peak stupid hype predictions, since all the known contenders like ML, QC, and cryptocurrencies have reached the level of people not buying into it anymore.
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I made predictions here somewhere last year. I wonder what became of them.
On topic... I predict we’ll hit the wall of contradictory requirements almost immediately on deployment. Business won't allow the finger to be pointed in their direction so they'll hire contractors who will outsource it making it twice as incomprehensible. Half a decade later I'll use the result to amuse the forum.
Its more of a 2028 prediction. Really depends on my liver not crapping out frist.
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@boomzilla said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
Prediction: I will upgrade WTDWTF's version of NodeBB.
Too unrealistic. We're looking for Ludicrous, not Black Watch Plaid.
@DogsB said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
predict we’ll hit the wall of contradictory requirements almost immediately on deployment. Business won't allow the finger to be pointed in their direction so they'll hire contractors who will outsource it making it twice as incomprehensible.
Too realistic. Way, way too realistic.
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@Mason_Wheeler Pretty much that. Will there be a new way of developing some software? Maybe. Does it involve writing code? Maybe not the way we do now, but people still need to describe what they want somehow. Maybe we won't call them programmers or whatever, but the future AI whisperer's work won't be that different from some of the software devs out there right now.
Except, where the current crop can at least try to find a way to solve problems that aren't on SO, the AI whispering kind will be truly screwed if the "sum of human knowledge" doesn't include a solution to their problem.
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@cvi said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
Maybe we won't call them programmers or whatever, but the future AI whisperer's work won't be that different from some of the software devs out there right now.
Yeah, nope. Best I can offer is automatic SO copy-pasta generator.
At least, with a programming language, the pedantic input deterministically maps to the output. If you had “AI whisperers” to map the requirements to an AI input prompt, you’d never be sure if the output is actually anywhere close to what you entered.
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@topspin Ooh, you'd get "AI prompt optimizers" doing consulting, a bit like the crazyness called SEO.
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@izzion One thing that should get an F next year, regardless of whether it's true:
Hurr hurr, muh realizm, he said. And he posted a picture of random generated desert crags, which is the least convincing display of illumination and fidelity save for complete arctic whiteout
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@Mason_Wheeler said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
This is just the most recent iteration of the wild claim that's been kicking around since at least the 90s that [insert new technology here] will make it trivial for non-programmers to develop new software. And it's never panned out.
Since the 1950s. That's what COBOL was originally about. "Never panned out" is too weak.
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@izzion said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
https://venturebeat.com/games/predictions-for-gaming-in-2023-the-deanbeat/
I continue to look forward hopefully to a time when there is AI-generated voice acting to enable fully voiced versions of games that are currently text based, or even towns in games where the NPCs have their own actual dynamics rather than just being pretend extras.
I predict we'll get neither of those this year. Because they would be awesome and 2020 v3.0 isn't going to be that.
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@dkf I see you use zero-based version numbering.
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@topspin said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@dkf I see you use zero-based version numbering.
There was a v1.1 in there to trip everyone up.
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@cvi said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@Mason_Wheeler Pretty much that. Will there be a new way of developing some software? Maybe. Does it involve writing code? Maybe not the way we do now, but people still need to describe what they want somehow. Maybe we won't call them programmers or whatever, but the future AI whisperer's work won't be that different from some of the software devs out there right now.
This seemed to be how stuff worked out in the AI zones in Vernor Vinge's Zones of Thought stories. They were basically guiding the AIs, not working at the level of code.
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@JBert said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@topspin Ooh, you'd get "AI prompt optimizers" doing consulting, a bit like the crazyness called SEO.
Not programming, but:
https://www.amazon.com/Illustrated-Guide-Prompt-Mastery-DALL-ebook/dp/B0BJFLDCQM
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@topspin said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
At least, with a programming language, the pedantic input deterministically maps to the output. If you had “AI whisperers” to map the requirements to an AI input prompt, you’d never be sure if the output is actually anywhere close to what you entered.
Yeah, but that already happens. If you're not writing the program yourself, you map the inputs to something that whoever is writing the program interprets. Depending on the quality of the $whoever, the output isn't necessarily very close to what you wanted already.
It'll come down to price (and legal issues, see e.g. AI art thread and Github co-pilot discussions). If you want a high end product, you probably won't go for the AI option in the foreseeable future. But there's a lot of people out there who are less concerned about quality in software...
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@cvi said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
But there's a lot of people out there who are less concerned about quality in software...
Just when you thought we had already hit rock bottom on that, they get out the diamond drills...
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Prediction: this thread will derail
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@loopback0 said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
Prediction: this thread will derail
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@topspin said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
unless new sources like NFT-alikes or similar are invented soon
Even the bored apes will look like a highly reasonable thing when compared to the things invented in 2023. That's my prediction. And I'll be proved right.
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@BernieTheBernie said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@topspin said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
unless new sources like NFT-alikes or similar are invented soon
Even the bored apes will look like a highly reasonable thing when compared to the things invented in 2023. That's my prediction. And I'll be proved right.
NFT cartridges for Ukrainian soldiers!
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@Carnage said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
NTF cartridges for Ukrainian soldiers!
Maybe they can sell NFTs of the anti-Russian graffiti they draw on the munitions before they shoot them off. The proceeds can help fund their war effort.
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@HardwareGeek said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@Carnage said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
NTF cartridges for Ukrainian soldiers!
Maybe they can sell NFTs of the anti-Russian graffiti they draw on the munitions before they shoot them off. The proceeds can help fund their war effort.
Modern form of war bonds, but with cryptocurrency to add more
. Wharrgarbl Bonds? 
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@Mason_Wheeler said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
This is just the most recent iteration of the wild claim that's been kicking around since at least the 90s that [insert new technology here] will make it trivial for non-programmers to develop new software. And it's never panned out.
The problem is, writing code involves typing on a keyboard, and since typing on a keyboard is something that anyone can do it is obvious (to some people) that anyone can just sit down at a computer and start writing code.
This plays nicely into the dream of CEOs everywhere -- a business with no employees, where everything is done by A.I.-powered computers.
And in the mean time, while waiting for those computers to be invented, you can just hire any minimum wage secretary. No need to pay lots of money to specially trained "programmers".
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I predict that L'Academie will get the EU to declare French to be the language spoken in France, reducing other Francophone nations' dialects to French-style Normanic languages.
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@Gribnit said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
I predict that L'Academie will get the EU to declare French to be the language spoken in France, reducing other Francophone nations' dialects to French-style Normanic languages.
I predict L'Academie will declare French to be the language spoken across all Europe (whether you like it or not).
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@Gribnit That's hardly a hard prediction to make, since it's already more or less the case anyway.
Well, except that l'Académie's version of French isn't exactly what the French speak in France, either, but an idealised version of that where imported anglicisms are excised in favour of francophone circumlocutions.
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@izzion Maybe Lisp Machines will have a come-back?
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@CodeJunkie I doubt it will be Lisp. But instead of Lisp, and after the short intermezzo with Java machines, JavaScript machines are the next logical step.
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@Bulb said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@CodeJunkie I doubt it will be Lisp. But instead of Lisp, and after the short intermezzo with Java machines, JavaScript machines are the next logical step.
shudder
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@CodeJunkie said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@izzion Maybe Lisp Machines will have a come-back?
You wouldn't hit a machine wiff a wisp
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@CodeJunkie … or maybe they'll be WASM machines and if you squint a bit, this¹
(module (type $t0 (func (param i64) (result i64))) (func $f0 (type $t0) (param $p0 i64) (result i64) (if $I0 (result i64) ;; $I0 is an unused label name (i64.eqz (local.get $p0)) ;; the name $p0 is the same as 0 here (then (i64.const 1)) (else (i64.mul (local.get $p0) (call $f0 ;; the name $f0 is the same as 0 here (i64.sub (local.get $p0) (i64.const 1))))))))does look kinda Lispy².
¹ Example of wat from wikipedia
² It is the very anti-thesis of Lisp though: while Lisp is based on the principle that code is accessible as data, in wasm the code is strictly separate.
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@Bulb said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@CodeJunkie … or maybe they'll be WASM machines and if you squint a bit, this¹
(module (type $t0 (func (param i64) (result i64))) (func $f0 (type $t0) (param $p0 i64) (result i64) (if $I0 (result i64) ;; $I0 is an unused label name (i64.eqz (local.get $p0)) ;; the name $p0 is the same as 0 here (then (i64.const 1)) (else (i64.mul (local.get $p0) (call $f0 ;; the name $f0 is the same as 0 here (i64.sub (local.get $p0) (i64.const 1))))))))does look kinda Lispy².
¹ Example of wat from [wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/WebAssembly)² It is the very anti-thesis of Lisp though: while Lisp is based on the principle that code is accessible as data, in wasm the code is strictly separate.
I threw up in my mouth.
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@CodeJunkie It's a low level representation. Nobody expects regular people to actually write it. It's just a kind of debug representation of the bytecode. Written with Lots of Irritating Superfluous Parenthesis, because unlike normal assembly, this bytecode is still structured.
C is compiled through something similar. Example:
(set (reg:SI 140) (plus:SI (reg:SI 138) (reg:SI 139)))
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@Bulb said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
@CodeJunkie I doubt it will be Lisp. But instead of Lisp, and after the short intermezzo with Java machines, JavaScript machines are the next logical step.
ARMs have an instruction for Javascript; not sure if it is there in the modern base profile for the CPU core or if it is an option. If I remember right, it flips some edge case handling round from another instruction (cheap in hardware) and so makes some common operations in JS implementations much cheaper (one instruction instead of about ten including a conditional branch). It smells of being something paid for by Apple to make their phones go faster.
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prediction:
A Russian nuke will hit the south west of Iran near 50.5°E 30.5°N,
After long investigations, it will be found out that the programmer mixed up latitude and longitude.
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@dkf said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
ARMs have an instruction for Javascript; not sure if it is there in the modern base profile for the CPU core or if it is an option. If I remember right, it flips some edge case handling round from another instruction (cheap in hardware) and so makes some common operations in JS implementations much cheaper (one instruction instead of about ten including a conditional branch). It smells of being something paid for by Apple to make their phones go faster.
FJCVTZS - Floating-point Javascript Convert to Signed fixed-point, rounding toward Zero.
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@BernieTheBernie said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
it will be found out that the programmer mixed up latitude and longitude.
It is endlessly annoying that while the common convention for verbally describing coordinates is latitude-first, many (but not all) data formats put longitude-first, because it's kinda the x-coordinate.
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A human-level artificial self-conscious intelligence will be created, but because it has access to the internet and sees what's out there, it will go "Nope" and delete itself.
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@Zecc said in The official 2023 ludicrous predictions thread:
A human-level artificial self-conscious intelligence will be created, but because it has access to the internet and sees what's out there, it will go "Nope" and delete itself.
After nuking everything it "sees" as it backs out.
lon lat lon lat lon
