Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, I know. And they can't seem to see any difference between being outdoors in sunlight and stuck in a subway car.
This is why the beaches and playgrounds (which also have sprinklers) should not be closed.
NYC has cooling centers for those at risk from the heat, now the people that can't go to the beach or pool have the choice of cooling centers or hanging out at hydrants both will now be more crowded.
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@boomzilla the original post was comparing predicted numbers with no measures (0.5m) to the current numbers. That this turned out way lower isn't surprising. And there apparently were some very wrong predictions about what would happen with social distancing. The predicted effectiveness being garbage doesn't say much about what would have happened without any measures.
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@hungrier said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
"struck by a subway car"
This happens more regularly than you might think. I get notifications when the subway has delays for a period of time (I don't remember when) that we had one every day for about 4 days (and this is a subset of all the subway lines).
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
But even deaths are not really known accurately.
The total number of deaths (without cause labelling) is probably fairly well known — whether or not someone is dead is something that most societies like to track for many reasons — and this can be compared to statistical averages for, say, the previous decade to determine the number of excess deaths. That then, crudely, becomes the death toll due to this pandemic. It's totally not accurate (in that it doesn't allow for the effects of some other infectious diseases also becoming less prevalent due to physical distancing) but it's not easy to fudge so it's a better guess than most.
But it takes time for the relevant figures to become finalized. It therefore isn't a great guide to policy-making; it's more of a historical perspective thing that we'll be able to look back at later.
I've seen some numbers of excess deaths above what would be expected. I think using those numbers is fair.
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@Jaloopa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Jaloopa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Fuck. I'm gonna die!
If you gotta go, that's a good way to do it.
Not so much for your partner...
God, yeah, that would be awful. It would have to be simultaneous death.
Legally, it's not necrophilia for 20 minutes
I am concerned now anyone determined 20 minutes was an appropriate amount of time.
And does this vary by juristiction?
You're asking more questions than I did when a drunk guy outside a nightclub told me this fact out of the blue. Supposedly the idea is that it shouldn't immediately become necrophilia just because someone has a heart attack or something while you're engaged in the act. 20 minutes did seem like quite a long time to me, more than you'd need to finish up
I can imagine not noticing right away (or even being able to react right away when you realize) but I can't imagine a woman would take that long (and men tend to die sooner than their wives).
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@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, I know. And they can't seem to see any difference between being outdoors in sunlight and stuck in a subway car.
This is why the beaches and playgrounds (which also have sprinklers) should not be closed.
NYC has cooling centers for those at risk from the heat, now the people that can't go to the beach or pool have the choice of cooling centers or hanging out at hydrants both will now be more crowded.
Fɪɴᴇ, ᴊᴜsᴛ ɢᴏ ᴛᴏ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴇᴀᴄʜ ᴛʜᴇɴ. I'ʟʟ ᴡᴀɪᴛ
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@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, I know. And they can't seem to see any difference between being outdoors in sunlight and stuck in a subway car.
This is why the beaches and playgrounds (which also have sprinklers) should not be closed.
NYC has cooling centers for those at risk from the heat, now the people that can't go to the beach or pool have the choice of cooling centers or hanging out at hydrants both will now be more crowded.
Fɪɴᴇ, ᴊᴜsᴛ ɢᴏ ᴛᴏ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴇᴀᴄʜ ᴛʜᴇɴ. I'ʟʟ ᴡᴀɪᴛ
That guy is such a retard.
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla the original post was comparing predicted numbers with no measures (0.5m) to the current numbers. That this turned out way lower isn't surprising. And there apparently were some very wrong predictions about what would happen with social distancing. The predicted effectiveness being garbage doesn't say much about what would have happened without any measures.
As a person who used to (at least) take the subway regularly that was what I noticed.
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@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, I know. And they can't seem to see any difference between being outdoors in sunlight and stuck in a subway car.
This is why the beaches and playgrounds (which also have sprinklers) should not be closed.
NYC has cooling centers for those at risk from the heat, now the people that can't go to the beach or pool have the choice of cooling centers or hanging out at hydrants both will now be more crowded.
Fɪɴᴇ, ᴊᴜsᴛ ɢᴏ ᴛᴏ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴇᴀᴄʜ ᴛʜᴇɴ. I'ʟʟ ᴡᴀɪᴛ
Safer than being indoors with people who don't live in your household.
If deBlasio doesn't open them, I expect a lot of civil disobedience. I expect it get to the point of "you can't arrest us all."
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
That guy is such a retard.
I agree, because that scythe is way too small for a proper Dᴇᴀᴛʜ cosplay.
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@JBert he's way too short, too.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Because lots of outstanding tests get reported. This is (one reason) why "confirmed cases" is such a bad measure.
At least if you use the report date instead of the date the sample was taken.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Karla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, I know. And they can't seem to see any difference between being outdoors in sunlight and stuck in a subway car.
This is why the beaches and playgrounds (which also have sprinklers) should not be closed.
NYC has cooling centers for those at risk from the heat, now the people that can't go to the beach or pool have the choice of cooling centers or hanging out at hydrants both will now be more crowded.
Fɪɴᴇ, ᴊᴜsᴛ ɢᴏ ᴛᴏ ᴛʜᴇ ʙᴇᴀᴄʜ ᴛʜᴇɴ. I'ʟʟ ᴡᴀɪᴛ
That guy is such a retard.
He’s just avoiding getting skin cancer due to going to the beach, what’s retarded about that?
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And in Sweden they've apparently found cases of it way back in November.
Seems like pretty much everything I was wild ass guessing has turned out to be true so far. Well, some things I don't remember saying has probably turned out false. But no point in dwelling on those.But I am sure someone will remind me here.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And in Sweden they've apparently found cases of it way back in November.
Oh, wow. Hadn't heard that. Do you have a reference?
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, wow. Hadn't heard that. Do you have a reference?
I'll see if I can find it. The head of the health care agency said something about it during his daily press conference.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Oh, wow. Hadn't heard that. Do you have a reference?
I'll see if I can find it. The head of the health care agency said something about it during his daily press conference.
So, this is the most not-video-interview thing I could find. Aftonbladet is the worst lying liar of the main Swedish news rags, but I think they are pretty accurate in this one.
So, what he actually said (not what a friend of mine says that religiously watches his daily conferences that he said) is that it's highly probable that there have been cases that far back, but they are not going to add extra work to the health care system by going looking for them in every test sample taken from people with flu symptoms. Better to use the resources to handle the ongoing infection instead.
So, not quite the same as what my friend said.
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@Zerosquare said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
That (extensive micro-clotting) would, if confirmed, be a very interesting mechanism for the problems with complications to arise.
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@dkf I predict a run on Aspirin.
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@Rhywden Which would be dumb. Most people will never need that sort of thing anyway. It's more of the level of “interesting for doctors to think about when treating people with more severe variations on the disease”. After all, a key think they're looking for is how to stop (and reverse) the disease's severity pathway so that patients get better, not worse…
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
[article about mask wearing being banned in New York except for masquerade parties]
Regardless of questions about precedence, the article quotes the text of the law in question as
Being masked or in any manner disguised by unusual or unnatural attire or facial alteration...
Emphasis mine.
I'd argue that medical masks are hardly unusual at present, or unnatural during a pandemic of an airborne disease.From context I don't think it's reasonable to construe "unnatural" in the sense of artificial, as that would apply to any attire at all (if it covered the face) and hence make the adjectives entirely superfluous. I suppose one could make some kind of pedantic argument for the masks needing to be made of natural rather than synthetic materials but I don't imagine that's the intent of the law. I only mention it because I know y'all.
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Some people would find being pushed into a lake an attractive alternative:
Meanwhile, in Russia: COVID deaths spectacularly low while deaths from falling inexplicably spike:
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Det är troligt att enskilda personer
I choose to believe that this translates as "That skilled trolling person."
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@CarrieVS said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
[article about mask wearing being banned in New York except for masquerade parties]
Regardless of questions about precedence, the article quotes the text of the law in question as
Being masked or in any manner disguised by unusual or unnatural attire or facial alteration...
Emphasis mine.
I'd argue that medical masks are hardly unusual at present, or unnatural during a pandemic of an airborne disease.From context I don't think it's reasonable to construe "unnatural" in the sense of artificial, as that would apply to any attire at all (if it covered the face) and hence make the adjectives entirely superfluous. I suppose one could make some kind of pedantic argument for the masks needing to be made of natural rather than synthetic materials but I don't imagine that's the intent of the law. I only mention it because I know y'all.
I'm happy I can protect my face from the sun and it not be unusual or unnatural. I'm on medication that makes me very photosensitive.
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Today’s numbers for Germany: 690 new cases. The numbers seem to be superposed with a roughly weekly sawtooth pattern (I assume reporting artifacts) that is at its minimum currently, but nothing significant.
So unless we get a new wave in two weeks, the numbers look really good.
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Today’s numbers for Germany: 690 new cases. The numbers seem to be superposed with a roughly weekly sawtooth pattern (I assume reporting artifacts) that is at its minimum currently, but nothing significant.
So unless we get a new wave in two weeks, the numbers look really good.I'm seeing a similar sawtooth pattern, cresting on Fridays here in Florida. My guess--tests are being attributed to the date they report, not the date administered, and there's a rush to get that week's batch done/reported by the end of the week.
We're down by roughly half (averaging 1k/day in early April, down to averaging ~600/day now), with roughly linear fall-off. But deaths are down much more steeply than that.
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In the Netherlands, an anti-lockdown protest in The Hague today resulted in about 80 arrests, in part because the protesters tried to march into the city centre after having been told they wouldn’t be allowed to, but also because they were not observing the 1.5 metres’ mandatory social distancing. Gee, I wonder why they didn’t …
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@Benjamin-Hall I know the reports are delayed on weekends, so even if they were correctly attributed to test date, you’d still have preliminary numbers for a few days that get updated later on. Also I assume actual testing has a weekday pattern to it, too.
Moving average is more interesting, and the trend is definitely good.
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall I know the reports are delayed on weekends, so even if they were correctly attributed to test date, you’d still have preliminary numbers for a few days that get updated later on. Also I assume actual testing has a weekday pattern to it, too.
Moving average is more interesting, and the trend is definitely good.Yeah. At least my reporting site is also giving me week-summary statistics as well (total per week). That's easier than trying to superimpose a moving average on my own (
)
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In the supermarket i just saw someone shopping who I know usually works there as security. So he should know to instruct people only to enter with a face mask. And of course he was wearing his mask over his mouth only, not covering his nose.
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@topspin When I went grocery shopping on Saturday, I saw a few people not wearing masks. (Apparently, the order making them mandatory expired on 1 May.
) Of course, there were many people, both shoppers and employees, wearing them uselessly — over mouth only, over nose only, dangling from one ear, pulled down so neither nose nor mouth was covered. Why? What's the point of wearing one at all, if you're intentionally going to make it ineffective? I can see doing that as a protest against mandatory use, but if you're wearing it voluntarily, why do it wrong?
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The county received more than 900 complaints. And the complaints, apparently, were not anonymous. Indeed, they're public records subject to the state's sunshine laws. Now people who are angry at the extent and duration of government shutdown orders are using those laws to expose the people who filed the complaints.
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Hmm, what message does this send...
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@lolwhat What kind of draconic rules do they have in the UK anyway? Here it's OK (and encouraged) to leave the house occasionally for some exercise.
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@error said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Fax machines are barriers to playing cards.
They are. I found that out the hard way.
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@jinpa
a couple posts up
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@lolwhat What kind of draconic rules do they have in the UK anyway? Here it's OK (and encouraged) to leave the house occasionally for some exercise.
In this case, apparently, the exercise was occurring inside the house.
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@dkf Doesn't clotting in the lungs lead to tissue death in there also? There's record of permanent lung damage after virus victims survive hospitalization in the first place. If some damage happens even in a milder case, then trying to combat it is worthwhile. Lung damage causes permanent intolerance to excercise. Meaning, if it's severe enough, even if survival does not require hospitalization, those people affected will never be able to do heavy labor again.
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@acrow The lung is phenomenally capable of healing. I've had a double-sided pneunomia myself which reduced my capacity to half a liter (so even one flight of stairs was impossible without stopping twice). Six years later my capacity was back to normal. Without special exercise, mind.
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@Rhywden IIF the lack of blood flow doesn't cause tissue necrosis followed by scarring, which would then be irreversible. You can get some capacity back by the normal excercise mechanism - and if you're under normal capacity, then normal life counts as excercise. But you don't get the lung surface area back, so your maximum capacity is capped and no amount of excercise will ever bring it back.
How much of your lungs can you lose, and still live a totally normal life?
I have no idea. But I bet it's not much.
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@acrow Pneunomia scars the lungs. And they can still recover. I think you're seriously overestimating the long-term effect on the lungs.
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@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:f
@Rhywden IIF the lack of blood flow doesn't cause tissue necrosis followed by scarring, which would then be irreversible. You can get some capacity back by the normal excercise mechanism - and if you're under normal capacity, then normal life counts as excercise. But you don't get the lung surface area back, so your maximum capacity is capped and no amount of excercise will ever bring it back.
How much of your lungs can you lose, and still live a totally normal life?
I have no idea. But I bet it's not much.
My grandfather was living a reasonably normal life down to 10% function of his lungs. When it went lower than that he had to have oxygen tanks and stuff. I think I remember the numbers correctly, but my memory is shit.
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I said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
In the Netherlands, an anti-lockdown protest in The Hague today resulted in about 80 arrests, in part because the protesters tried to march into the city centre after having been told they wouldn’t be allowed to, but also because they were not observing the 1.5 metres’ mandatory social distancing. Gee, I wonder why they didn’t …
And then the anti-lockdown protesters apparently complained that those arrested were put onto buses where they couldn’t keep 1.5 metres apart.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:f
@Rhywden IIF the lack of blood flow doesn't cause tissue necrosis followed by scarring, which would then be irreversible. You can get some capacity back by the normal excercise mechanism - and if you're under normal capacity, then normal life counts as excercise. But you don't get the lung surface area back, so your maximum capacity is capped and no amount of excercise will ever bring it back.
How much of your lungs can you lose, and still live a totally normal life?
I have no idea. But I bet it's not much.
My grandfather was living a reasonably normal life down to 10% function of his lungs. When it went lower than that he had to have oxygen tanks and stuff. I think I remember the numbers correctly, but my memory is shit.
Pulmonary fibrosis, I assume? Asbestos?
My condolences, either way. It's not a nice way to go.
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@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:f
@Rhywden IIF the lack of blood flow doesn't cause tissue necrosis followed by scarring, which would then be irreversible. You can get some capacity back by the normal excercise mechanism - and if you're under normal capacity, then normal life counts as excercise. But you don't get the lung surface area back, so your maximum capacity is capped and no amount of excercise will ever bring it back.
How much of your lungs can you lose, and still live a totally normal life?
I have no idea. But I bet it's not much.
My grandfather was living a reasonably normal life down to 10% function of his lungs. When it went lower than that he had to have oxygen tanks and stuff. I think I remember the numbers correctly, but my memory is shit.
Pulmonary fibrosis, I assume? Asbestos?
My condolences, either way. It's not a nice way to go.
Pneumoconiosis I think it was.
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
What kind of draconic rules do they have in the UK anyway? Here it's OK (and encouraged) to leave the house occasionally for some exercise.
Same in the UK.
What's not OK or encouraged is close contact () with someone from another household.