😈 The Evil Ideas thread
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What?
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Some big trust not paying enough to the right persons to get through with fake expertises is seldom but not exactly rare.
Did you even RTFA? That's not what happened here. VW AG built a bunch of diesel vehicles that had all the necessary emissions controls. But they also put in a software controller that only enabled the emissions controls when the vehicle was undergoing emissions testing. As a result, the vehicles would appear to pass test when submitted to emissions tests, but were actually putting out up to 40 times the legal limits when on the road.
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Admittedly, I read only the headlines and the subtitles. Didn't sound interesting enough to read the rest as well.
I've read about software recognizing test cycles about 15 years ago, so this isn't new either.
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The only new part is just how deeply this is going to bite VW in the ass.
The interesting thing will be whether their diesels sold in the EU have the same issue. If they do, it'll kill them: even with a lower per-vehicle compensation level, they'll have sold a lot more than in the US.
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The interesting thing will be whether their diesels sold in the EU have the same issue.
Diesel cars: Is it time to switch to a cleaner fuel?
With some diesel cars emitting up to 20 times the legal limits on harmful pollutants, is it time to move to a cleaner fuel?
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Hmm, I wonder which (NOx) limit they're talking about? There are several, and they're in the process of becoming much tighter. Plus there's also the particulates limit, which is an issue with diesel engines. (Petroleum engines have other limits that matter, though NOx limits pretty much apply to both.)
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Plus there's also the particulates limit, which is an issue with diesel engines.
Yeah but this seems to be about NOx. VW can't exactly fudge particulate though - they fit particulate filters and you can't exactly configure a physical filter to work better under test conditions vs road conditions.
55% of VW's cars sold in Europe are diesel.
Hmm, I wonder which (NOx) limit they're talking about?
It's not clear - there are other studies using Euro 6 but I can't find the source of that table. As it came out this year, it might be safeish to assume it's Euro 6 too. If it's Euro 5, then 0.9x Euro 5 would still exceed Euro 6.It's Euro 6. 80mg/km
http://www.transportenvironment.org/sites/te/files/publications/2015 07 RDE position paper FINAL.pdf
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The interesting thing will be whether their diesels sold in the EU have the same issue.
I estimate a "yes" would be in the millibits range.
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It's Euro 6. 80mg/km
OK, that's the standard that's not yet in force and it's viciously tough. Euro 5 is the current one for new cars, but everyone's trying to get to Euro 6 right now. (I was looking into this a few months ago.)
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Is Euro 6 not for cars registered from this month?
IIRC VW (I've not checked the others) already have TDi engines which meet Euro 6, like the 2.0 used in the Passat.
Or claim to have, anyway.
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http://www.volkswagenag.com/content/vwcorp/info_center/en/news/2015/09/Ad_hoc_US.html
Discrepancies relate to vehicles with Type EA 189 engines, involving some eleven million vehicles worldwide. A noticeable deviation between bench test results and actual road use was established solely for this type of engine.
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Is Euro 6 not for cars registered from this month?
Shit, yes. I knew it came in sometime in the autumn, but forgot it was September.
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The interesting thing will be whether their diesels sold in the EU have the same
issuefeature.Turns out, yes: http://www.focus.de/finanzen/boerse/volkswagen-abgas-skandal-dobrindt-2-8-millionen-vw-fahrzeuge-in-deutschland-manipuliert_id_4973064.html
Not very much, though: just a bagatelle of 2.8 million (admitted) cases in Germany.
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Not very much, though: just a bagatelle of 2.8 million (admitted) cases in Germany.
There's now a blurb down the page about a further 1 million vehicles in France.
Martin Winterkorn (CEO) resigned.
VW seems to be having stock price problems; down 35% since the start of the week. Uncertainty, maybe?
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Business as usual; every other year some federal-wide operating company does shit like this (read: is convicted of this). The main difference is that it is one of the really big ones this time. Something must have gone really wrong if they couldn't suppress the news.
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And in a year it will be forgotten.
Just look at BP.
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in a year it will be forgotten.
You're such an optimist. Unless you mean discoyear, short interpretation.
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Business as usual; every other year some federal-wide operating company does shit like this (read: is convicted of this). The main difference is that it is one of the really big ones this time. Something must have gone really wrong if they couldn't suppress the news.
It's because it was too good a story to pass up. If it had been an ordinary fraud story (also known as a "dog bites man story") it would still have been reported...but in the proverbial two-inch article on page 18 of the business section. That's what business image management usually arranges with the news media.
But this was something new: software-enabled automobile testing fraud. It's too good a story for news agencies to bury the way they usually do, and also too good for the government not to make points with a suggestion of a "massive" fine.
Yet I'm sure this will pay out pretty much as usual: the US$18 billion fine will somehow wind up being negotiated to $20 million, which will be a huge lesson for a company that made a net profit of $10.6 billion last year. And, as soon as the novelty wears off, the story will be back to page 18 of the business section.
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Yet I'm sure this will pay out pretty much as usual: the US$18 billion fine will somehow wind up being negotiated to $20 million, which will be a huge lesson for a company that made a net profit of $10.6 billion last year.
The class-action lawsuits will be incoming though, such as the people who will be seeking compensation for the loss in resale value of their vehicles due to the engines being much dirtier than previously believed (which has tax implications, and possibly also able-to-be-run-at-all implications). Paying those people off will be very expensive, as there are a lot of them. Why? Because the same engines were sold into the EU market, by the millions. That $20M would probably come to less than a dollar for each affected customer: would you settle for that when it had probably cost you 5–10 thousand?
This is all aside from the fact that this is obviously a deliberate feature. Having a sensor to detect when the engine is being run with the hood open and running in a different mode in that case is just not going to be believed by anyone as an accident. It would just beggar belief. Someone senior had to know, to actively approve of doing this in the knowledge that it was acting directly against the intent of regulation.
This is worse than the Deepwater Horizon affair. That was reckless lack of care. This smells like conspiracy, and is the sort of thing that can attract criminal charges against senior corporate directors.
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@dkf said:
criminal charges against senior corporate directors
A pawn sacrifice won't do. Must be a knight or bishop this time.
Filed under: As usual, the king will be unaffected.
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the people who will be seeking compensation for the loss in resale value of their vehicles due to the engines being much dirtier than previously believed (which has tax implications, and possibly also able-to-be-run-at-all implications)
Lots of German customers. If all of those suddenly aren't allowed to drive their cars into the city centres anymore, but have to park well outside due to environment zones...
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Having a sensor to detect when the engine is being run with the hood open and running in a different mode in that case is just not going to be believed by anyone as an accident.
Well all of the sensors would be in place. The bonnet sensor for the alarm would cover the bonnet being open, the ABS sensors would cover which wheels were turning etc.
I'm not sure the resale value hit will be that bad long term, because most people won't care in a year's time.
I'm more interested at this point about the difference between a real world test of a TDi engine which doesn't do this and a stationary test like an emissions test. Especially considering the amount of kit they've added into a car for these real world tests.
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Especially considering the amount of kit they've added into a car for these real world tests.
I was going to say it looks like the software guys at VW should have added running with an open rear hatch to their list of criteria indicating a test in progress. But after looking at the picture more closely, it looks like the test guys thought of that, too.
Clever.
Link to a page discussing it.
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I was going to say it looks like the software guys at VW should have added running with an open rear hatch to their list of criteria indicating a test in progress.
Except that it indicates a bunch of other stuff too, such as someone moving a ladder around.
It's stupid, but it does happen relatively commonly.
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Except that it indicates a bunch of other stuff too, such as someone moving a ladder around
Oh, sure, but VW could just put a little blurb in the manual, "Important: Running with the tailgate open will reduce the performance of your vehicle."
But look how it is now. Above, there were remarks ( @dkf ) to the effect that now the people are going to suffer reduced value because their car is a polluter. That's not going to be it at all: EPA is going to make VW recall and reprogram all those vehicles--so wave bye-bye to all that wonderful performance you paid for.
All because the software guys didn't think to turn on the pollution controls if the tailgate was open.
(Not saying fraud is good, just saying that if they'd thought of one more tweak, we might never have known...)
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Most of these VW models are FWD - it doesn't need to care if the tailgate is open or the bonnet is.
Front wheels moving and rear wheels stationary would suffice.
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EPA is going to make VW recall and reprogram all those vehicles
The EPA will do no such thing.
OK, that's a disagreement on a technicality. The EPA can only make that order for the USA. If it was just a problem in the USA, this would be just a very expensive problem for VW; half a million vehicles, god knows how much compensation each and quite possibly some criminal fraud charges to deal with.However… the same engine was sold in much larger numbers in the EU, their home market. It wouldn't surprise me if it was at least an order of magnitude more. That is why VW is really in trouble. The fallout from this is going to be fascinating, given that I know I don't own any car manufacturer stocks. ;)
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This is worse than the Deepwater Horizon affair. That was reckless lack of care. This smells like conspiracy, and is the sort of thing that can attract criminal charges against senior corporate directors.
Of course, if this were a bank...
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This source has 2.8 million affected cars in Germany, 1 million in France.
2,8 Millionen VW-Autos in Deutschland manipuliert
Der Skandal um manipulierte Abgaswerte bei Volkswagen hat VW-Chef Martin Winterkorn den Job gekostet. Er trat am Mittwoch nach einer sechsstündigen Krisensitzung zurück. Der neue VW-Chef und damit Winterkorns Nachfolger ist Matthias Müller.
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That $20M would probably come to less than a dollar for each affected customer: would you settle for that when it had probably cost you 5–10 thousand?
I don't know how it works on your side of the pond, but here the affected customers don't have a say; only the lawyers do, and such settlements are common.
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I don't know how it works on your side of the pond, but here the affected customers don't have a say; only the lawyers do, and such settlements are common.
So the lawyers aren't encouraging plaintiffs to sue for restitution plus (reasonable) costs? That smacks of systematic abuse.
Back of an envelope calculation:
500k class members, $10k compensation each (ass-pull number), so $5B there.
I'd guess that the US part could be settled eventually (excluding criminal charges for individuals) for less than a year's earnings. VW earn a lot.As I said, the EU part is a whole 'nother ballgame. Just the pure compensatory part is likely to cripple VW for years, given the number of affected customers and the fact that there will not be a single class action in any case, and may kill the company (as who would be willing to bail them out?). Which would have bigger knock-on effects. The political impact is going to be interesting to watch.
http://news.sky.com/story/1559195/government-rejects-claims-on-emissions-curbs
Switzerland temporarily bans the sale of some Volkswagen diesel-engine models in the wake of the emissions-rigging scandal in the US.
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Implement the following userscript:
window.setInterval(function() { $.post("https://what.thedailywtf.com/search?q=how's the new forums coming"); }, 500);
It's a question worth asking over and over. Every 500 (of course) milliseconds.
Will it cooties?
Filed under: How's the new forums coming?
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@dkf said:
That $20M would probably come to less than a dollar for each affected customer: would you settle for that when it had probably cost you 5–10 thousand?
I don't know how it works on your side of the pond, but here the affected customers don't have a say; only the lawyers do, and such settlements are common.
Not entirely true. Affected customers can always opt out of a class action suit and pursue their own lawsuit.
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The fallout from this is going to be fascinating, given that I know I don't own any car manufacturer stocks.
Disasters are always much more interesting from a safe distance.
So the lawyers aren't encouraging plaintiffs to sue for restitution plus (reasonable) costs? That smacks of systematic abuse.
The civil suits are something else again, and your math may be in line, for those.
But we were talking about the environmental fines that would be issued by the US EPA. Theoretically, EPA could hit them for US$ 18 billion just in fines (because of the large number of cars, each of which is a separate violation). Plus the cost of corrective action. In practice, our agencies are ridiculously soft on fines: a slap on the wrist (and not a hard slap, either) is a common conclusion to such incidents.
$20 million, less than 0.1¢ on the dollar, would not be a surprise at all.
Of course, it could be more, but I'm a cynic and I'm betting on past wrist slaps and the $20 million.
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Deutsche Bank, JPMC, Wells Fargo, Citi, ...
An iconic German company employing tens of thousands. Maybe if they have more skeletons in the closet and everyone else is clean, but I think many more car companies have dirty hands on this one.
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may kill the company (as who would be willing to bail them out?).
German government would bail them out.
Besides they're too big and they sell too many. Most buyers of new diesel VWs won't care.Even Switzerland have only banned the unregistered Euro 5 not Euro 6 cars.
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@lolwhat said:
Deutsche Bank, JPMC, Wells Fargo, Citi, ...
An iconic German company employing tens of thousands. Maybe if they have more skeletons in the closet and everyone else is clean, but I think many more car companies have dirty hands on this one.
Make that millions. They've got about 600,000 direct employees and then there are the countless employees in companies dependent on VW - the parts have to come from somewhere, someone has to deliver them and so on.
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Except that it indicates a bunch of other stuff too, such as someone moving a ladder around.
Did you lose sight of the conversation here?
One reduced-performance trip because the tailgate is open isn't likely to suddenly make people realize the emission controls aren't working.
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This source has 2.8 million affected cars in Germany, 1 million in France.
Note that much like the FIFA thing, this is a case where a company was getting away with complete bullshit in Europe for years and years, and it took the US to finally do something about Europe's problems. (And probably VW only thought they could get away with it in the US was because it was so easy to trick/bribe moron Euro-governments.)
U S A! U S A! U S A!
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Maybe if they have more skeletons in the closet and everyone else is clean, but I think many more car companies have dirty hands on this one.
I read an article, I can't remember but I think it was in NYT? that said independent testing showed that the BMW 3-series was the only BMW car that legit met the standard. All other BMW diesel models did the same cheating VW was doing. It also mentioned Volvo, IIRC.
The problem here is that the EU set up a test that was extremely easy to game, and so these companies gamed it.
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I always thought it was mildly amusing that that "USA FUCK YEAH!" movie was a spoof of a British sci-fi series.
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Anyone who has ever driver behind a VW diesel car could have told you their emission level stats were complete and utter bullshit.
Fucking stinky-ass cars.
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It's a matter of car service station settings, too. They can set the motor for maximum cleanliness, maximum power, anything between them, or maximum carbon soot and poison output. (The latter is done by time and neglection, mostly.)
The average Diesel car here in Germany is cleaner than the average bus or truck by an order of magnitude. (Except for the "green buses" with special filters, temporary energy storage, etc.)
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The average Diesel car here in Germany is cleaner than the average bus or truck by an order of magnitude.
At least when you're testing it, eh?
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Even Switzerland have only banned the unregistered Euro 5 not Euro 6 cars.
But they'll be wanting to most carefully check whether the engines are actually meeting the Euro 6 regulations now, instead of just taking various manufacturers' word for it. Because regulators were caught napping a bit too much, they'll be very keen to show they are awake now.
