Setting Fire To Sleeping Strawmen (now with extra Toniiiiiiiiiight, you're right, you're right, you're right)
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They're also much less tolerant of heat -- an incandescent can sit there under a broiler for its entire service life with not a whit of objection, while a LED or CFL will lose its [s]brain[/s]ballast in a hurry under the same conditions.
But that just means that incandescents still have application areas where they're quite possibly the best choice. I'm fine with that. (What about if the ballast is in a cool zone but the LED is in a hot one? There's no particular reason that they have to be immediately adjacent…)
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that just means that incandescents still have application areas where they're quite possibly the best choice.
Yeah, a LED is unlikely to be a happy camper as an oven light.
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But that just means that incandescents still have application areas where they're quite possibly the best choice. I'm fine with that.
Indeed -- we'll still have incandescent oven lights for the foreseeable future.
What about if the ballast is in a cool zone but the LED is in a hot one? There's no particular reason that they have to be immediately adjacent…
This would be nice for fluorescents, actually -- but- residential luminaire designers haven't been paying attention to lighting, as LEDs are better off integrated into luminaires because you get better thermal control that way
- LEDs don't like oven-baking that much, either.
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@Buddy, please tell us where that graph came from.
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Thank you, @EvanED, for actually sourcing that data, since the graph posted by @Buddy states absolutely nothing like, "Data comes from the Vostok ice cores."
The vertical red line at the right end of @Buddy's graph isn't in the graph that @EvanED pointed out. I suppose it's from another data set. It'd be nice to know where. The slow-drip-of-data bullshit isn't appreciated.
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It's so hard keeping track of these threads when the title changes. I didn't look at the total post count, so I spent a minute going through replies thinking that this was the status thread.
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LEDs get less efficacious as they warm up, leading to more heating, thus more heat per Joule consumed...
It's a vicious cycle.That's the actual diode, not the driver (they don't have a ballast), thus they are unsuitable for hot locations and need rather a lot more heatsinking than one might expect of a "cool" lamp.
Most domestic LED fittings are pretty crap and will die young, usually due to poor thermal management but also due to "lowest bidder" manufacturing.
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Most domestic LED fittings are pretty crap and will die young, usually due to poor thermal management but also due to "lowest bidder" manufacturing.
But that's “young” relative to LEDs, whereas people really care about the lifetime relative to the other alternatives for that type of lighting. It's like running a race with your colleagues with a hungry bear bringing up the rear: you don't have to be the fastest, so long as you're faster than the slowest…
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>How could anyone possibly create a model that both accounts for historical climate and predicts our current and future climate after a discontinuity like that?
Yeah, my point is that clearly no one has. And that they're probably over emphasizing one thing about the system. And that we might not be able to really simulate something so large and chaotic and dynamic anyways.
Yes, but our best hope for being able to predict it would be if we could stay in the same loop we appear to have been in for the past half-million years. The system is now in a state that it has never been in before; if this were an experiment, now would be the perfect time to stop changing things and observe how the system reacts.
What I am saying is that for a person to look at the known data and decide to do everything in their power to limit or reduce carbon output is perfectly reasonable. For the record, it's not what I decided—but I realize that my love of rushing head-first into an unknown future is not shared by everyone, and if people in general decide that whatever carbon plans they come up with are worth it, I can go along with that too.
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The system is now in a state that it has never been in before
If you go into enough detail, that's probably always the case. Which is to say, I agree, but I'm not certain it's a crazy out of whack state. The theories that we are in such a state aren't very persuasive in the face of known uncertainty and observations of reality.
What I am saying is that for a person to look at the known data and decide to do everything in their power to limit or reduce carbon output is perfectly reasonable.
I don't have a problem with an individual doing this on his own. But the data do not reasonably support a forcible remake of our economy.
For the record, it's not what I decided—but I realize that my love of rushing head-first into an unknown future is not shared by everyone, and if people in general decide that whatever carbon plans they come up with are worth it, I can go along with that too.
It doesn't help much that many of the loudest advocates who have decided that the economy needs to be remade haven't made those decisions in their personal lives. None of that is scientific, of course, but it's some delicious irony to those of us who are accused of "denying science."
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Yeah, it's kind of a weird problem though, there's not just the “I'm just one person..” thing, but the idea that any fossil fuels you don't use are just going to go to someone else anyway, so what's the point of holding back if nobody else is going to?
I don't think air quality is really a good use case for capitalism. Assuming it gets to the point where the majority of people agree that a change is necessary, it's gonna call for more of a collective-bargaining “let's all stop doing this to each other” kind of approach.
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I don't think air quality is really a good use case for capitalism.
It's done better than non-capitalism societies.
Assuming it gets to the point where the majority of people agree that a change is necessary, it's gonna call for more of a collective-bargaining “let's all stop doing this to each other” kind of approach.
First, enough people have to be wealthy enough for that to happen. So far, only capitalism seems to support that level of wealth. But then we get into the form of government. Obviously, we have examples where representative democracy types of governments have cleaned up air quality.
I'm not aware of any authoritarian regimes that have done so. Perhaps China will get there. They've been tending towards capitalism, so people there are getting to the point where they have the luxury of worrying about stuff like that. I've always suspected that the liberalization of their economic system will improve their political situation, but that remains to be seen.
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But that's “young” relative to LEDs, whereas people really care about the lifetime relative to the other alternatives for that type of lighting. It's like running a race with your colleagues with a hungry bear bringing up the rear: you don't have to be the fastest, so long as you're faster than the slowest…
When the packaging says "70,000 hours" and it dies after 5000-10,000 hours, that's really rather young.Compare to a GLS tungsten which are generally rated at 3000 hours and 1/10th the price (if not less).
Though pretty much any LED claiming 70k hours or more is pretty much lying to begin with, as that's the usual diode manufacturer's quote for diode lifetime down to 50% brightness, not driver etc.
(50k hours is the usual "to 70%" figure for a bare diode under good conditions.)
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When the packaging says "70,000 hours" and it dies after 5000-10,000 hours, that's really rather young.
I've had a pair of Philips AmbientLED 12W bulbs running outside my garage for close to 15,000 hours over the past four years. Some LEDs are crap, but you can't hold that against the whole technology.
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Most domestic LED fittings are pretty crap and will die young, usually due to poor thermal management but also due to "lowest bidder" manufacturing.
@Jaime said:I've had a pair of Philips AmbientLED 12W bulbs running outside my garage for close to 15,000 hours over the past four years. Some LEDs are crap, but you can't hold that against the whole technology.
I said most, I did not say all. (Ignoring the fact that two lamps is two datapoints, not a trend)That said, Philips don't make domestic LED fittings anymore, and Samsung are stopping as well (except in South Korea), so good luck finding decent domestic LED retrofits in the future.
Buy 'em now while you still can...
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On the topic of sea levels, here's a little tidbit about some cypress logs under 60 (yes, sixty) feet of water:
http://m.livescience.com/37977-underwater-cypress-forest-discovered.html
Carbon dating puts the trees at ca. 52,000 years old.
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Philips don't make domestic LED fittings anymore
So the Philips LED fittings I bought a couple of months ago are figments of my shoulder aliens' imagination?
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LED fittings
What is an "LED fitting"? This sounds like some sort of British dialect weirdness to me.
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he's talking about lightbulbs.
that one confuses me to, why fittings => lightbulb?
no idea, but there you go.
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Philips LED
OK, maybe they've left some market or other, but they definitely seem to be around...I have no idea where @lightsoff is from.
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that one confuses me to, why fittings => lightbulb?
In my case, “fitting” is more accurate. The LEDs are an integral part of the overall device; I don't know if it is possible to replace just the “lightbulb” part (I've not tried to take the thing apart yet ;)).
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In my case, “fitting” is more accurate. The LEDs are an integral part of the overall device;
So, not something you screw into a socket in place of some other sort of light? It sounds like you're talking about a component or something, not a normal consumer sort of thing.
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there you have me.
technically the light part is just the LEDs
but in 'murica a lightbulb is the removable component that produces light, typically attached via screw fitting, but not always.
we do love to make overgeneralizations i guess.
Lightbulb:
Also Lightbulb:
Also Lightbulb
Moar lightbulbs:
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So, not something you screw into a socket in place of some other sort of light? It sounds like you're talking about a component or something, not a normal consumer sort of thing.
I'm talking about this sort of thing:
http://www.hofstein.de/images/produkte/i51/51018-56244-31-16-07.jpg
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I'm talking about this sort of thing:
Ah...all the stuff I've noticed like that has had sockets where you supply your own bulbs.
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a little from column a, a little form column b.
get that thing hot enough and it'll give out plenty of light!
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OK, maybe they've left some market or other, but they definitely seem to be around...I have no idea where @lightsoff is from.
I actually pay attention to the lighting industry news.
Philips:
Samsung:
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I actually pay attention to the lighting industry news.
But did you read it?
[July 1]...said it will merge its Lumileds LED components and car lighting divisions into a separate group that could eventually be sold off.
[Sep 23]...Philips Chief Executive Frans Van Houten said it was not clear whether the lighting business would be sold off to investors, or listed on the stock exchange,
So it seems that they're still there. Also:
LED lighting | null
Use energy saving LED light bulbs and experience long lasting, quality ilght. An LED bulb can last up to 22 years, eliminating the hassle of frequent bulb replacement.
I don't recall ever seeing Samsung bulbs.
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That looks more like a lighting fixture to me.
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It looks precisely like what I screwed to the wall in the kitchen to me.
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I came across this comic:
...and it reminded me of this exchange:
@Intercourse said:
There are a LOT of people involved and you cannot convince me that the overwhelming majority are doing so in order to provide:
Stable employment
It just is not going to happen.
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Not going to play this game. The level of confirmation bias in this thread is too high to ever break through.
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Philips to spin off LED lights business
Reuters | Breaking International News & Views
Samsung turns off lights on LEDs worldwide – except in South Korea
The official website of Dr. Tim Ball
