Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@HardwareGeek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I don't see heart disease anywhere on there,
Heart disease, cancer, auto accidents, old age are four major causes of death that are notably missing. It makes COVID-19 look scary, but it's hard to put it into perspective without the other 93% of deaths.
Yes, but it's quite nice to put it into perspective with other deaths that are handled as public danger. Seriously, people want to handle one of them by real war against citizens (as seen in another thread)!
So, obviously, as bad as the panic is, it can be worse.
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@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Which I don't expect the general populace to figure out.
Around here it has been part of the official communication about what are good masks and what not
I've been foiled by unexpected government competence!
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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2006372
A medical journal saying that masks are not effective outside a health-care setting.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Then taken annually and linearized (like they've done with most of the rest, since we don't collect data frequently enough to actually produce the smooth curves they're giving), you'd get something much less scary.
If that happens, you know you'll never see any graphs like that in the media. Because they don't fit the "scary story".
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@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I've been foiled by unexpected government competence!
: Nobody expects government competence!
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@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I've been foiled by unexpected government competence!
government so I'm sure it was accidental
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@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
government
Isn't that a null pointer?
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@Zerosquare said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
government
Isn't that a null pointer?
More like Schrödinger's pointer.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
A medical journal saying that masks are not effective outside a health-care setting.
In passing, without an argument, and than goes on to say that
More compelling is the possibility that wearing a mask may reduce the likelihood of transmission from asymptomatic and minimally symptomatic health care workers with Covid-19 to other providers and patients.
without analysing in detail either, but it contradicts the statement made in passing earlier nevertheless.
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@PleegWat
Perfect description of our not quite a government. As long as you don't look it might be a government.
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@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@acrow said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Which I don't expect the general populace to figure out.
Around here it has been part of the official communication about what are good masks and what not
Not around here. But loosely tied bandanas are also considered adequate, so...
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More Belgian numbers ...
Key: average deaths, (official) COVID-19 deaths and total deaths
A bit silly the graph doesn't retain it's dates, it's just 'interactive' to be interactive without actually making the graph better.
Anyhow. Total deaths has been above average since mid March until mid May. The total deaths indicates that Belgiums pessimistic COVID-death counting (including non-hospital deaths and deaths without positive test) is on-target.
Since mid May there actual is an under average number of deaths so it might turn out that the total average number of deaths over a longer time span (say 2020) is more flattened.Original (Dutch) article: https://www.vrt.be/vrtnws/nl/2020/06/02/oversterfte-stavaza/
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@Luhmann Last week our excess deaths count (actual deaths minus average deaths in the reference period) went negative. And they're still concerned because a number of causes of deaths (such as operations with a chance of the patient not surviving) are not active right now.
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@PleegWat Given the profile of people most likely to have been killed by the pandemic, a noticeable tail of reduced death rate is to be expected.
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It's still in Phase II testing but they're going to start mass producing so it's ready to go if it passes trials.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
It's still in Phase II testing but they're going to start mass producing so it's ready to go if it passes trials.
There's no way that could go wrong... That will make it highly incentivized to make sure "it works" no matter what.
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@dcon eh...I suspect they're getting paid either way by the USG.
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@boomzilla that’s an interesting gamble. If they suspect there’s at least a reasonable chance it will be effective and pass the tests, it’s probably a good idea.
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
that’s an interesting gamble.
Something about bold strategies and natural plant fibers.
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@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
It's still in Phase II testing but they're going to start mass producing so it's ready to go if it passes trials.
There's no way that could go wrong... That will make it highly incentivized to make sure "it works" no matter what.
"Past results are no prediction of future performance" and all that, but what is the proportion of drugs that don't pass Phase II (whatever that is, I'm not familiar with the drug-development process)? And the proportion of comparable drugs (vaccines, or maybe using similar molecules, or whatever "similar" might mean in this case...)?
If it's a small one, it's a reasonable gamble to assume that this one will go through.
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Phase II clinical programs continue to experience the lowest success rate of the four development phases, with
only 30.7% of developmental candidates advancing to Phase III.
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@Dragoon Sounds low. But as I said, maybe looking at similar drugs (again, I have no idea what "similar" would really mean here but I assume that someone who works in drugs development would likely know), the rate is higher?
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from a little further down:
So that brings it up to 43% on average. This paper doesn't go into it, but I would imagine that strong phase I data correlated well with strong phase II data, so that could bolster it further.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
It's still in Phase II testing but they're going to start mass producing so it's ready to go if it passes trials.
There's no way that could go wrong... That will make it highly incentivized to make sure "it works" no matter what.
"Past results are no prediction of future performance" and all that, but what is the proportion of drugs that don't pass Phase II (whatever that is, I'm not familiar with the drug-development process)? And the proportion of comparable drugs (vaccines, or maybe using similar molecules, or whatever "similar" might mean in this case...)?
If it's a small one, it's a reasonable gamble to assume that this one will go through.
Clinical development is a three-phase process. During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety.
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So that big "study" that said hydrochloroquinine caused heart problems? Turns out its data came from a shady source that can't validate any of it. And has strange data issues...
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
It's still in Phase II testing but they're going to start mass producing so it's ready to go if it passes trials.
There's no way that could go wrong... That will make it highly incentivized to make sure "it works" no matter what.
"Past results are no prediction of future performance" and all that, but what is the proportion of drugs that don't pass Phase II (whatever that is, I'm not familiar with the drug-development process)? And the proportion of comparable drugs (vaccines, or maybe using similar molecules, or whatever "similar" might mean in this case...)?
If it's a small one, it's a reasonable gamble to assume that this one will go through.
Clinical development is a three-phase process. During Phase I, small groups of people receive the trial vaccine. In Phase II, the clinical study is expanded and vaccine is given to people who have characteristics (such as age and physical health) similar to those for whom the new vaccine is intended. In Phase III, the vaccine is given to thousands of people and tested for efficacy and safety.
A good rule of thumb is that Phase 1 is about basic safety, Phase 2 is about whether the treatment actually works, and Phase 3 is about whether it works better than the existing alternatives. If they've done their homework right and haven't messed up safety, then the vaccine for COVID-19 will advance pretty rapidly; recruiting a patient cohort won't be hard and any worthwhile effect will be fairly gross. And there's no incumbent functioning treatment to displace.
But all too often the problem lies in transferring treatments from the test tube to the clinic precisely because we don't want to cause too much harm in the process. The reason for this is simple: napalm is very effective at killing virtually all diseases in vitro, but we still don't inject it…
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
napalmbleach is very effective at killing virtually all diseases in vitro, but we still don't inject it…FTFG
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
So that big "study" that said hydrochloroquinine caused heart problems? Turns out its data came from a shady source that can't validate any of it. And has strange data issues...
Pinging @Rhywden so he can tell us how this article is all wrong. And I'm only half-trolling - the other half really wants to know all the errors they made in listing all the errors.
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@Gąska I regret that I have but one upboat to give...
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Dragoon Sounds low. But as I said, maybe looking at similar drugs (again, I have no idea what "similar" would really mean here but I assume that someone who works in drugs development would likely know), the rate is higher?
If you take "similar" to mean vaccines against other corona viruses the success rate is 0%. And yes, they have tried developing these.
To be fair: Of course they haven't tried anywhere nearly as hard as for SARS-CoV-2.
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@Sumy and current efforts have the advantage of whatever knowledge came out of previous experiences, plus whatever other advances have happened in the mean time.
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Presented without comment:
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@lolwhat Ah. That's the trick to putting on our dog show! We're protesting! (the county told us we can't hold it until we go to Level 4)
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@lolwhat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Presented without comment:
Maybe it's an attempt to extinguish protest marches by having everybody fight to be one of the first 100, then the police only needs to sweep up the stragglers. Or declare the whole thing illegal because of the number of people and try to sweep up the lot.
Whether it helps to stop corona from spreading though...
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Or they're hoping that protesters will infect each other with Covid-19, thus solving the problem of protests automatically
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@Zerosquare I'm not seeing the problem there.
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Pinging @Rhywden so he can tell us how this article is all wrong.
He was "last online" a week ago, and his last post was a tirade on how the Garage was leaking and Redstate is horribly biased and some other stuff. Seems like he ragequit.
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@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Ah. That's the trick to putting on our dog show! We're protesting! (the county told us we can't hold it until we go to Level 4)
What does a Level 4 dog show look like?
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Ah. That's the trick to putting on our dog show! We're protesting! (the county told us we can't hold it until we go to Level 4)
What does a Level 4 dog show look like?
A bunch of people showing off their Level 4 dogs, obviously!
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@Mason_Wheeler said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Ah. That's the trick to putting on our dog show! We're protesting! (the county told us we can't hold it until we go to Level 4)
What does a Level 4 dog show look like?
A bunch of people showing off their Level 4 dogs, obviously!
What classes? It'd be better to have Level 5 dogs, because then they'd have Extra Attack or 3rd level spells. And those are game-changers (which is why level 5 starts Tier 2, ending the apprentice phase of the game).
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Ah. That's the trick to putting on our dog show! We're protesting! (the county told us we can't hold it until we go to Level 4)
What does a Level 4 dog show look like?
The last dog you have to beat is Cerberus
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Meanwhile in Colin Furze's work shed:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vZFDNR9V5Nc
As usual, be warned for loud noises and music. I couldn't stop myself sharing it for the pun in the title (which one of Colin's fans came up with).
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@hungrier said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
The last dog you have to beat is Cerberus
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@Carnage that's the Polish border.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I'd have thought more like this:
Germans do not drive British tanks. They like theirs to keep going, you see.