Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Makes sense, actually.
No, it doesn't.
Yes it does. Whether you're capable of understanding it is an entirely different question, however.
- Most people who go to church, go there at fixed hours. They've had made their routine decades ago and they aren't going to change it.
- More masses => more convenient hours => more people at the church overall.
So first you say that people who attend Mass have made their routines decades ago and aren't going to change it. Then you say that non-practicing Catholics are going to suddenly start going to church because it's more convenient. What do you think they are, Protestants or Mormons?
- There are many elder people who go to church multiple times a day because they don't have anything better to do. More masses means they meet even more people there than before, and they're the most vulnerable to the virus.
I know many religious older Catholics. I do know a few who attend Mass every day. I don't know any who attend Mass more than once a day. There are many elderly people who attend Mass multiple times a day? I'm skeptical of this. Except on weekends, most parishes only celebrate Mass once a day. I'm sure somewhere there are churches that do, but I have not come across them. Mostly they celebrate masses during the week because priests have to celebrate mass every day, and they're open to the handful of layman who wish to join them.
- They're still holding masses.
As they've been doing without fail for 2000 years. The anti-religious people cannot comprehend this, and desperately wish they would stop. The fashionable panic over this particular flu is just an excuse.
The virus is spreading a tiny bit slower, but it's spreading, and it's spreading toward the same asymptote. They delayed the exposures, but haven't reduced them.
This, of course, is true for most of the measures that have been taken in the world so far regarding the epidemic.
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@jinpa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
- Most people who go to church, go there at fixed hours. They've had made their routine decades ago and they aren't going to change it.
- More masses => more convenient hours => more people at the church overall.
So first you say that people who attend Mass have made their routines decades ago and aren't going to change it. Then you say that non-practicing Catholics are going to suddenly start going to church because it's more convenient. What do you think they are, Protestants or Mormons?
They're people who often have time to go to church but sometimes don't. Yes, the effect won't be large, but it will be definitely positive (as in greater than zero).
- There are many elder people who go to church multiple times a day because they don't have anything better to do. More masses means they meet even more people there than before, and they're the most vulnerable to the virus.
I know many religious older Catholics. I do know a few who attend Mass every day. I don't know any who attend Mass more than once a day. There are many elderly people who attend Mass multiple times a day? I'm skeptical of this.
Maybe Poland is different. Here in Wrocław, all buses and trams are filled with retirees from 6AM to 6PM non-stop, most of them going nowhere in particular.
Except on weekends, most parishes only celebrate Mass once a day.
So Poland is definitely different. My small parish (everyone's still on regular schedule because the more masses thing hasn't kicked in yet) has 2 masses Monday to Thursday, 1 mass Friday and Saturday, 7 masses on Sunday, plus additional seasonal liturgies depending on the time of year - currently that's Lent, and that means Way of the Cross every Friday 4 times a day and Bitter Lamentations once every Sunday. Bigger parishes have more liturgies, of course.
- They're still holding masses.
As they've been doing for 2000 years.
Imagine how many lives could be saved during Black Death, Spanish flu and other epidemics if they didn't.
The anti-religious people cannot comprehend this, and desperately wish they would stop. The fashionable panic over this particular flu is just an excuse.
I'm not anti-religious by any means. I believe religion is the one most important thing for a healthy society. I was just commenting on the idiocy of our episcopate's plan to fight the epidemic. I didn't invent that line of reasoning - it's literally how they try to sell this idea.
The virus is spreading a tiny bit slower, but it's spreading, and it's spreading toward the same asymptote. They delayed the exposures, but haven't reduced them.
This, of course, is true for most of the measures that have been taken in the world so far regarding the epidemic.
Although canceling big cultural events and other gatherings actually does vastly reduce the ability of the virus to spread - both in time and in numbers. So does closing up schools. There are many reasons why the latter might be a very bad idea, but none of those reasons are about health.
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@Rhywden and how do you know the thieves aren't cows? uh? uh?
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
The virus is spreading a tiny bit slower, but it's spreading, and it's spreading toward the same asymptote. They delayed the exposures, but haven't reduced them.
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@error like all bell curves, it's a gross oversimplification that doesn't take 149 of 150 factors into account. But yes - under assumption that the blue curve is under the dashed line (which is very very very much not true, and the global shortage of protective masks is just one symptome), it's better to spread it over time than have it piled up. How it translates to infection counts and deaths is another matter entirely.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
NL no more assemblies over 100 people, including sports events. Request to work at home if possible.
Schools staying open - closing them would cause significant impact to society, including forcing parents (who may work in important sectors - health care, ambulance, police, etc) to stay home.
A long time ago, it was enough for one parent to go to work. The other stayed home. But then something happened, and now most families need at least two people working to survive.
And schools can still be closed; kids 7yo+ can survive a few hours on their own. But think of the kindergartens, full of low-symptom
petri dishestoddlers who haven't learned to not lick each other yet.
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@error like all bell curves, it's a gross oversimplification that doesn't take 149 of 150 factors into account. But yes - under assumption that the blue curve is under the dashed line
That doesn’t even matter. What matters is that more of the blue line is under the curve, which is obviously true.
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@error Every time I see that picture, I wonder why the blue curve drops more slowly than the red curve.
I guess it's because there are more non-infected people around to catch it anew?
Also it seems like the infection goes away sooner in the red curve.
"Let's just all get through it in one go. Don't worry about Jim, he was a weakling anyway."
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
That doesn’t even matter. What matters is that more of the blue line is under the curve, which is obviously true.
Or rather (this is the same thing but said differently) "less of the blue area is over the line" (i.e. how much of the epidemic overflows the healthcare system and has serious societal consequences).
@Zecc said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Every time I see that picture, I wonder why the blue curve drops more slowly than the red curve.
I think it's because you're not changing the total number of people who get it, just how fast they get it. So it takes longer to contaminate all those people because they get sick one at a time. Well you're probably also reducing a bit the total number of cases, but in first approximation, maybe not that much, at least compared to the effect of slowing the propagation.
If you've watched the video (in the "not dumb videos" thread, I think?) posted recently about growth rate, it explains pretty well that reducing the transmission rate will switch from red to blue without really changing the fact that they're still both bell-shaped so the longer the uptick, the longer the tail as well.
Also it seems like the infection goes away sooner in the red curve.
"Let's just all get through it in one go. Don't worry about Jim, he was a weakling anyway."Yeah, I had exactly the same thought about Southern hemisphere countries somewhere up-thread (on in the garage one?). In the North we want to wait until flu is gone to free up healthcare capacity, but in the South they should want to get the epidemic right now before they also get the flu.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If you've watched the video (in the "not dumb videos" thread, I think?)
Indeed:
@PleegWat said in Random but Not Dumb Videos Thread:
Exponential growth and epidemics – 08:57
— 3Blue1BrownAs it happens it has one like and it's by me! Not even Tsauk. :)
Guess I need to watch it again.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
it explains pretty well that reducing the transmission rate will switch from red to blue without really changing the fact that they're still both bell-shaped so the longer the uptick, the longer the tail as well.
I don't see it. I don't see it mentioning the tail at all.
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Also, President Macaroon spoke yesterday evening and as expected (by me, at least), we're more or less following in the tracks of Italy with a couple of weeks' delay, which is perfectly consistent with the spread of the epidemic.
All schools, nurseries, universities etc. in France are going to be closed from Monday. I guess they didn't do it from today because one day doesn't really change that much and this way it leaves the weekend to organise things. One of the two parents can, simply upon request, declared themselves in sick leave and get sick pay etc. while they're taking care of the children.
Elderly (> 70) are asked to stay at home, go out only if needed, and to not get any visits (inb4: "what a good reason not to visit the in-laws!"). Businesses are encouraged to ask people to work from home, although as far as I've heard there are no actual measures planned, it's just "please do it".
Also, he said that businesses would get an automatic extension of the deadline to pay all the various taxes, employment or social security or VAT etc. It makes sense to me to basically use the state money as some sort of short-term loan on companies to avoid them getting under because of that, but I have no idea whether it will make any difference. I guess for e.g. hotels and restaurants, it might...
I'm still waiting for my employer to tell us what to do, I was half-expecting an email waiting in my inbox this morning, but nothing yet. It's a bit surprising given that in the past few weeks they have tended to react before the public authorities, but probably they need a bit of time to decide how to handle the school closure thing and how to try and link that with home-working (from their perspective, they'd rather have people working from home while taking care of children, if they can, rather than being on sick leave).
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@Zecc said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
it explains pretty well that reducing the transmission rate will switch from red to blue without really changing the fact that they're still both bell-shaped so the longer the uptick, the longer the tail as well.
I don't see it. I don't see it mentioning the tail at all.
Actually you're right, I extrapolated that myself from the fact that the shape of the logistic curve stays the same (it's still a logistic curve even if you slow down the transmission rate), but it shifts to the right. So if you work back from the CDF (the cumulative curve shown in the video) to the PDF (the "instantaneous" curve shown in the red/blue cartoon), slowing the rate will make the tail longer because it's still the same mathematical distribution.
Of course the whole thing assumes a perfect mathematical model, which isn't the truth, so I have no idea whether in reality the curve are symmetric and so on, but at least on this model, it explains why the long tail.
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@Zecc said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
As it happens it has one like and it's by me! Not even Tsauk. :)
Oops, an Error has occurred. :(
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I also doubt anybody has the faintest idea on how to do reasonable exams online.
In school, in mid august.
I'm dead serious. People are going to have to catch up school activities over the summer.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
All schools, nurseries, universities etc. in France are going to be closed from Monday. I guess they didn't do it from today because one day doesn't really change that much and this way it leaves the weekend to organise things. One of the two parents can, simply upon request, declared themselves in sick leave and get sick pay etc. while they're taking care of the children.
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Also, he said that businesses would get an automatic extension of the deadline to pay all the various taxes, employment or social security or VAT etc. It makes sense to me to basically use the state money as some sort of short-term loan on companies to avoid them getting under because of that, but I have no idea whether it will make any difference. I guess for e.g. hotels and restaurants, it might...
Wait, they're thinking ahead? Is this still France we're talking about?
(emphasis above is mine)
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@JBert Any excuse for the workers to demand extra rights. Sounds like perfectly normal France to me.
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@JBert Yeah, the announcement yesterday sounded astonishingly sane in that regard. They really seemed to have thought about negative effects and how they could mitigate them. Of course I'm pretty sure there'll be tons of downsides, predicted or not, that won't be compensated, but overall, it looks like they tried to predict all that.
On the whole, since the start of the crisis the government has made a strong PR effort to put health officials in charge (or at least make it seem so), which as far as I can see is working reasonably well to preemptively defuse any claim of political, well, politicking, like we're seeing in some other countries. And yesterday's announcement followed that, with the president repeatedly saying that he was following what science was telling him and to trust medical professionals and so on. Obviously it's partly just the PR strategy, but it seems to be working until now. The far-left opposition who's usually very quick to blame anything as "raw liberalism" and "dictature" (let's keep that outside of the garage please...) hasn't really said much, and the far-right who's usually screaming to close borders etc. did so, but that didn't attract much attention.
Also Macron was elected in part on a platform of pragmatism and is usually blamed for being too technocratic, so really the new measures pretty much fall into that pattern: a dispassionate cost-benefits analysis of things and purely financial measures where the state has the power to do so. I'm not saying it's perfect, nor that it will work, but at least it sounds like it has been thought-out, not improvised.
Also also, he was elected on a centrist platform and many people judge him to be center-right or even right rather than center, so these measures of social protection play well for him to try and shift his image back to the left. He also said that the "winter ceasefire" (a French thing where you're not allowed to evict people who e.g. don't pay rent between October and April -- again, please no garaging here...) would be extended this year, which will certainly play well with the left even if it's likely to have no real impact on anything (I guess).
Also also also, we have local elections (once every 6 years!) this Sunday, so anything that would make him (or his party) look bad would likely have a direct impact on that (and conversely, people thinking he's handling the crisis well could help his party). Which might explain why he's PR until now was to not involve politicians, if possible (avoid taking responsibility of an un-avoidable bad thing!), and why now he's stressing social measures that make him look fatherly and caring.
So yeah, reasonable announcements, with likely a huge dollop of PR/crisis management mixed in there.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I'm dead serious. People are going to have to catch up school activities over the summer.
I asked about a week ago why we wouldn't just delay exams in the eventuality of being closed; the answer back then was that it would screw over a ton of people (delaying graduations, not being admitted to things, funding, other admin stuff, and more admin stuff).
It did sound like extra work for admin, so there's that.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@JBert Any excuse for the workers to demand extra rights. Sounds like perfectly normal France to me.
Well, yes, I'm just surprised that politicians did all that before the French people went on strike and started burning old tires in the streets.
Then again, I guess manifestations might soon be limited to people keeping a 1m distance from each other so that will hamper things somewhat.
EDIT: And then there's remi's post - never attribute to proactive thinking what can be explained by PR
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I'm dead serious. People are going to have to catch up school activities over the summer.
I asked about a week ago why we wouldn't just delay exams in the eventuality of being closed; the answer back then was that it would screw over a ton of people (delaying graduations, not being admitted to things, funding, other admin stuff, and more admin stuff).
It did sound like extra work for admin, so there's that.
True, there is a certain amount of time involved also in checking exams and enrolling pupils.
Guess they could also just do the exams at the school at the normal time - Exams require the pupils staying >2m apart anyway.
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@mott555 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
The rumor mill is working full-time! It's flying around social media that our local schools have confirmed coronavirus cases among their students, and are shutting down. The people who actually work at the schools say it isn't true.
The entire state of Maryland shut down schools and several (though not all) neighboring school districts in Virginia have shut down. At about 8:30 last night our district announced that they'd been talking with the county health department and had decided that the risks were still low and they were going to remain open.
About 3 hours later the superintendent closed schools for today after it sounds like he got flooded with negative feedback. He said that he closed schools for today in order to let people calm down about it, basically.
Monday is already a staff work day to prep for distance learning options and other preparedness. I kind of doubt they'll be open on Tuesday, but we'll see.
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@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Then again, I guess manifestations might soon be limited to people keeping a 1m distance from each other so that will hamper things somewhat.Someone forwarded me a union's pamphlet, where they are, in a couple of lines, first asking for more safety measures to protect workers and... calling for an actual gathering in front of some building to protest!
EDIT: And then there's remi's post - never attribute to proactive thinking what can be explained by PR
Well I'm not going to complain when self-interest (presidential PR) aligns with public interest (sick pay etc.).
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Czech Republic status: The biggest hospital in my town, the one that's treating Kung Flu patients from the area, is currently dealing with an unspecified "cyberattack", and is essentially shut down for the moment. I'm guessing someone picked the best possible time to find out if any hot singles were in the area. Sigh.
In other news, a group of four heavily coughing Italians were found on a train traveling across the country, the conductor called the cops and the geniuses are in quarantine now. The train was allowed to continue its route with everyone other than these four on board after a few hours. These trains usually have an open layout, so now god knows how many other potentially infected people are running around Prague. The cops say they have the identities of everyone on board which is really reassuring
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@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
All schools, nurseries, universities etc. in France are going to be closed from Monday. I guess they didn't do it from today because one day doesn't really change that much and this way it leaves the weekend to organise things. One of the two parents can, simply upon request, declared themselves in sick leave and get sick pay etc. while they're taking care of the children.
@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Also, he said that businesses would get an automatic extension of the deadline to pay all the various taxes, employment or social security or VAT etc. It makes sense to me to basically use the state money as some sort of short-term loan on companies to avoid them getting under because of that, but I have no idea whether it will make any difference. I guess for e.g. hotels and restaurants, it might...
Wait, they're thinking ahead? (emphasis above is mine)
Is this still France we're talking about?
I think Italy is some sort of experiment where you had the chance to see what worked and what didn't, and the other states have the privilege of waiting and seeing.
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@blek The fun part is that it seems that the virus can survive for several days on plastic and stainless steel surfaces...
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@remi considering that we've been waiting for the next plague for a while now, I'd be surprised if there hasn't been plans prepared for quite a while now.
But your president seems to be doing well.
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@Carnage Well, there are countries which have passed effective laws and measures (see: Singapore). Others... not so much.
And still others still seem to be in the "If we ignore it it'll go away" phase.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage Well, there are countries which have passed effective laws and measures (see: Singapore). Others... not so much.
And still others still seem to be in the "If we ignore it it'll go away" phase.
Yeah, Sweden is still in the latter segment.
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@blek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
the best possible time to find out if any hot singles were in the area.
everybody knows you should do those only after the death numbers have shot up
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@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@blek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
the best possible time to find out if any hot singles were in the area.
everybody knows you should do those only after the death numbers have shot up
It's best to let their temperature drop a bit too, just in case.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage Well, there are countries which have passed effective laws and measures (see: Singapore). Others... not so much.
And still others still seem to be in the "If we ignore it it'll go away" phase.
Loudly slamming the front door shut has been known to be very effective. Doesn't matter that you've left all the windows wide open and the assassin is already lurking in the closet under the stairs, waiting until you've gone asleep.
</sarcasm>
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
My church has now officially cancelled all public worship
My church in California, where I was planning to see friends when I'm there this weekend, has cancelled public worship for the next month or so. They will be streaming services online at all the usual times. (Ordinarily, they only stream one of them.) I don't know if they are going to stream them live, or record the first one and replay it for the two later services.
Last I heard, my church in Texas has not yet decided to cancel public services (there haven't been any cases of COVID-19 in my city, yet, at least not that I've heard about), but if they do, I'll be one of the people in the building anyway, helping to produce the content for the stream.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Well. My church has now officially cancelled all public worship and other public meetings world wide. Yesterday they only said to suspend the large ones (multi congregation ones).
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@boomzilla
Even though the article was written by someone from the field, I don't think it should receive too much attention. Comparisons to the Spanish flu are just too problematic: Influenza is not a coronavirus, the available data on the 1918 flu epidemic is not very trustworthy due to WW I and lack of diagnostic methods and post-war scenarios from a century ago are hardly comparable to a modern scenario.The only real takeaway is that UV light and warmth is usually bad for viruses, which we already knew.
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@dfdub I think you're ignoring how often it's the secondary infections that kill people and it also helps explain why these things (flus, colds, etc) tend to be more prevalent in seasons when we're cooped up inside.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@dfdub I think you're ignoring how often it's the secondary infections that kill people and it also helps explain why these things (flus, colds, etc) tend to be more prevalent in seasons when we're cooped up inside.
Then I'm doomed. Because it's also the peak of the allergy season--just going outside today for a couple minutes left me feeling it. Stupid oak trees.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And the longer it waits, the warmer it gets (which might inhibit the spread).
Apparently true. The critical temperature for that sort of thing is about 25°C (77°F) so things will improve rapidly in the southern US as the season progresses.
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And the longer it waits, the warmer it gets (which might inhibit the spread).
Apparently true. The critical temperature for that sort of thing is about 25°C (77°F) so things will improve rapidly in the southern US as the season progresses.
It's been over that for a while now here.
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@dkf said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And the longer it waits, the warmer it gets (which might inhibit the spread).
Apparently true. The critical temperature for that sort of thing is about 25°C (77°F) so things will improve rapidly in the southern US as the season progresses.
As much as I want to believe that, I'm doubtful. Singapore is well above that and has a large number of cases, not all imported.
It might be slowing down the virus, but clearly not to the point where there is no more epidemic. I mean, every little helps and if it slows it down, that's a good thing, but I don't think we can count on that to not propagate as soon as it becomes slightly hot.
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@remi as I understand, there are two effects. First, it inhibits transmission by reducing dwell times on surfaces. Second, human immune systems are at their worst when it's cold and dry. So it reduces the spread and reduces the lethality/severity, both of which are good.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Singapore is well above that and has a large number of cases, not all imported.
Singapore also has a lot of air conditioning.
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And now Hamburg's schools are semi-closed for the next two weeks as well. "Semi-closed" because regular schools will offer supervision for children below 14 years of age if their parents don't have any other way of caring for them (e.g. because they're both working). Also, the "big" exams will still happen - just with lower numbers of pupils per room. But no regular lectures.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
it also helps explain why these things (flus, colds, etc) tend to be more prevalent in seasons when we're cooped up inside
The weather also plays a more direct role in that, since the immune system works better when you're not freezing and since the virus survives better in wet, cold conditions.
And yeah, of course, when you're in confined spaces with other individuals and no UV light all day, transmission becomes easier.
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
They're people who often have time to go to church but sometimes don't. Yes, the effect won't be large, but it will be definitely positive (as in greater than zero).
Wouldn't "people who might go to church if they had the time but don't really want to catch the coronavirus" probably have a substantially larger effect?
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Iran’s coronavirus burial pits are so vast they’re visible from space
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According to expert analysis, video testimony and official statements, the graves were dug to accommodate the rising number of virus victims.
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“so vast they're visible from space” does not mean that much when a decent ground imaging satellite has resolution around tenth of metre (see also https://what-if.xkcd.com/32/).
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@Bulb said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
“so vast they're visible from space” does not mean that much when a decent ground imaging satellite has resolution around tenth of metre (see also https://what-if.xkcd.com/32/).
My usual interpretation of that is what an astronaut on the ISS can see with the naked eye. I can't imagine that bar being met for something less than a kilometre across.
Coronavirus and the Sun: a Lesson from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic
