Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@dfdub said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I bought a 12-pack of toiletpaper when I moved into this apartment, and I've still got 4 rolls left of them.
You obviously don't own a cat.
Nope. Allergic to the critters.
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Our facility manager just cordoned off the playground in front of my house.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Just to be safe I bought one sixpack of toiletpaper on Sunday
I suspect part of the empty aisles is due to that: toilet paper isn't something you buy every week so if everyone thinks at the same time "mmm, I don't have much left, better by one pack now", this is enough to create an unusual spike in demand. Add to that the fact that toilet paper is a very bulky item so it's likely that there are actually very few packs on a shelf at any given time (compared to other products), so a smaller spike in demand is enough to trigger a penury.
(the bulky part doesn't apply to many other items, but the buying now an item that is usually bought every now and then applies to many other products -- which is indirectly corroborated by the fact that I haven't heard much of a penury of items that people do buy every time such as milk, bacon, eggs or bread. Although I'm on the fence wrt to flour and pasta... it's an everyday item but otoh at least for me, I don't buy a pack every week either, so maybe the idea still works?)
Of course, once you've said that, you see assholes like the one mentioned by @topspin, and the whole argument above becomes irrelevant.
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@remi Eggs were completely out. I wouldn't be surprised if that's a supply problem - they don't keep all that long - but the entire baking products aisle was rather empty.
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Just to be safe I bought one sixpack of toiletpaper on Sunday
I suspect part of the empty aisles is due to that: toilet paper isn't something you buy every week so if everyone thinks at the same time "mmm, I don't have much left, better by one pack now", this is enough to create an unusual spike in demand. Add to that the fact that toilet paper is a very bulky item so it's likely that there are actually very few packs on a shelf at any given time (compared to other products), so a smaller spike in demand is enough to trigger a penury.
(the bulky part doesn't apply to many other items, but the buying now an item that is usually bought every now and then applies to many other products -- which is indirectly corroborated by the fact that I haven't heard much of a penury of items that people do buy every time such as milk, bacon, eggs or bread. Although I'm on the fence wrt to flour and pasta... it's an everyday item but otoh at least for me, I don't buy a pack every week either, so maybe the idea still works?)
Of course, once you've said that, you see assholes like the one mentioned by @topspin, and the whole argument above becomes irrelevant.
Bread, rice and pasta is sold out in the large food stores here, as well as toilet paper.
Why you'd buy fresh bread in bulk I don't quite understand. It goes bad pretty fast, and takes up massive amounts of freezer space for rather small amounts of sustenance. Hard bread sure, but that isn't what people are cleaning out the shelves of.
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@Carnage Well I guess I was just trying to put a positive spin on that, saying that it's not people being stupid but just all reacting the same way at the same time. But unfortunately, that theory (people not being stupid) isn't supported by facts... (not that it's really news, but still...)
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@remi My sister mentioned stores being out of Milk. Maybe eggs too, don't remember. My local supermarket has had less stock on eggs than typical, but it wasn't completely out. Pasta + tomato sauce/canned tomatoes have been out / limited for a few days now (though, the asian-style noodles haven't sold out). Toiletpaper's been gone too, but that seems to be a constant. Smaller stock of other canned foods, but didn't ever see it completely sold out. Also heard other places being sold out of frozen/ready-made pizzas; here they seem untouched.
Potatoes were mostly gone yesterday. A few days ago all vegetables were sold out (small store with little space, but still, ). There's still less stock on vegetables than typically, but clearly supply isn't the problem. Chips were being sold out too at least in one shelf (there were still some Doritos ...), the shelf on the other side was largely untouched.
Rice wasn't sold out, but it's also well hidden in my local store.
Seems to be rather random. I'm wondering if you could conduct a social experiment where you decide on some highly visible (but silly item), and just buy a bunch of it to make the shelf look empty. See if you can start an avalanche.
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@remi @topspin It Is also true that, due to the high probability that lots of idiots live in your area, it is arguably good strategy to buy stuff in bulk yourself because, if you don't, then chances are that you'll run out before the items are restocked. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage Yeah. I have a few rolls left in my home, part of one pack I bought some time ago. I figure if I can't buy more toilet paper by the time I start running out, the world's having bad enough problems that toilet paper isn't going to be top priority anyway.
By then, there should be leaves on the trees. Well, unless you're down-under...
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage Yeah. I have a few rolls left in my home, part of one pack I bought some time ago. I figure if I can't buy more toilet paper by the time I start running out, the world's having bad enough problems that toilet paper isn't going to be top priority anyway.
Obligatory "3 seashells" reference:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n7nFEnFtvCM
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@remi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Just to be safe I bought one sixpack of toiletpaper on Sunday
I suspect part of the empty aisles is due to that: toilet paper isn't something you buy every week so if everyone thinks at the same time "mmm, I don't have much left, better by one pack now", this is enough to create an unusual spike in demand. Add to that the fact that toilet paper is a very bulky item so it's likely that there are actually very few packs on a shelf at any given time (compared to other products), so a smaller spike in demand is enough to trigger a penury.
(the bulky part doesn't apply to many other items, but the buying now an item that is usually bought every now and then applies to many other products -- which is indirectly corroborated by the fact that I haven't heard much of a penury of items that people do buy every time such as milk, bacon, eggs or bread. Although I'm on the fence wrt to flour and pasta... it's an everyday item but otoh at least for me, I don't buy a pack every week either, so maybe the idea still works?)
Of course, once you've said that, you see assholes like the one mentioned by @topspin, and the whole argument above becomes irrelevant.
In Hong Kong, we got toilet paper running out from shops for about 2 weeks, then see "wall built with toilet paper" on supermarkets.
When your supply don't keep up with the sudden demand, all toilet papers are gone.
When people done with restocking toilet paper, you see toilet paper walls built because noone is now buying them.
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So I've mostly been ignoring this thing because I'm at ~150% workload and I simply need to ignore 90% of everything to get stuff done. Finally came up for breath and ran out for a quick grocery trip, and the shelves are bare.
They've been flying infected people into our hospitals for something like 6 weeks now and we have nothing going on, I'm not sure why the locals are panicking.
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@mott555 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I'm not sure why the locals are panicking.
The funny thing about that is that it's not a big deal until it is, and this stuff can be sneaky about spreading. And of course, precautions and panic and over reaction may actually work to prevent it from getting there, which could make you wonder why everyone panicked to begin with.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
How much do people shit?
I shit so much I need to be careful with my technique so I don't clog the toilet every other day. But even I don't use more that one roll every couple weeks.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@remi @topspin It Is also true that, due to the high probability that lots of idiots live in your area, it is arguably good strategy to buy stuff in bulk yourself because, if you don't, then chances are that you'll run out before the items are restocked. Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
Real-life example of the prisoner's dilemma. If everyone cooperates (=doesn't stockpile), everyone will get a share and all is well. If one (or a few) person don't cooperate (=stockpiles), they will benefit a lot, and hurt a lot everyone else. If no-one cooperates (=everyone rushes to the stores now!!!), everyone loses a lot (no-one has enough, queues, angry people...).
I hope that economists who build models where humans are "rational actors" are taking notes, because we might be seeing one of the biggest and clearest rebuttal of those models.
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@Dragoon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
A person is smart.
As shown up-thread, not even that.
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@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I don't remember who, but someone on this forum said they preferred when diseases hit the wealthy western nations because then there would be a cure and coping medical treatments.
He's being proven right. Not that it's surprising.Correlation etc.
How so? It seems readily apparent that we spend more money on curing diseases that actually affect us.
Labs all around the world were hard at work even before the virus left China. That we're only getting results now that the virus spread to western countries is basically a coincident - it just so happens that both the development of cure and the global spread take about the same amount of time.
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@Gąska nah, everybody knew from the start that this was going to be a probable pandemic. On the other hand, Ebola is, AFAIK, incurable and not much is ever done about it.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Gąska nah, everybody knew from the start that this was going to be a probable pandemic. On the other hand, Ebola is, AFAIK, incurable and not much is ever done about it.
https://www.cdc.gov/vhf/ebola/prevention/index.html
The U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approved the Ebola vaccine rVSV-ZEBOV (tradename “Ervebo”) on December 19, 2019. The rVSV-ZEBOV vaccine is a single dose vaccine regimen that has been found to be safe and protective against only the Zaire ebolavirus species of ebolavirus. This is the first FDA approval of a vaccine for Ebola.
Another investigational vaccine was developed and introduced under a research protocol in 2019 to combat an Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo. This vaccine leverages two different vaccine components (Ad26.ZEBOV and MVA-BN-Filo) and requires two doses with an initial dose followed by a second “booster” dose 56 days later. The second vaccine is also designed to protect against only the Zaire ebolavirus species of Ebola.
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@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember.
AKA, what you knew was wrong when you said, "Ebola is, AFAIK, incurable and not much is ever done about it."
Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
And some possible treatments (also piling onto your Ebola ignorance):
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
Which, if we have to do the stringent distancing at least until then, will cause something like total economic/societal collapse. Or just won't happen. Especially if those efforts are mostly successful at keeping the apparent death toll low-ish. Basically a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
Which, if we have to do the stringent distancing at least until then, will cause something like total economic/societal collapse. Or just won't happen. Especially if those efforts are mostly successful at keeping the apparent death toll low-ish. Basically a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
I believe that when the economy starts creaking worryingly all quarantines are gone and society starts moving again.
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@boomzilla I went by what Wikipedia says on the issue:
There is no cure or specific treatment for the Ebola virus disease that is currently approved for market, although various experimental treatments are being developed. For past and current Ebola epidemics, treatment has been primarily supportive in nature. As of August 2019, two experimental treatments known as REGN-EB3 and mAb-114 were found to be 90% effective.
And, looking into it now:
Ebola vaccines are a number of vaccines to prevent Ebola that are either approved or in development. The first vaccine to be approved in the United States was rVSV-ZEBOV in December 2019. It had been used extensively in 2018-19 under a compassionate use protocol.
So basically my info is out of date by a few months. Sue me?
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
Which, if we have to do the stringent distancing at least until then, will cause something like total economic/societal collapse. Or just won't happen. Especially if those efforts are mostly successful at keeping the apparent death toll low-ish. Basically a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
I believe that when the economy starts creaking worryingly all quarantines are gone and society starts moving again.
But with lasting damage done. And if then the death-toll spikes, we go back under quarantine...and up and down the yo-yo goes.
Best case--it blows over pretty quick (ie Iran/Italy were strong outliers). Probability: small.
Worst case--yo-yo back and forth so we get both the global recession++ AND the high death toll. Probability: incalculable. But not zero.
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Why you'd buy fresh bread in bulk I don't quite understand. It goes bad pretty fast, and takes up massive amounts of freezer space for rather small amounts of sustenance. Hard bread sure, but that isn't what people are cleaning out the shelves of.
The real weird part is that flour was completely sold out - but the "ready-made bread baking mixtures" were still all there.
Y'know, the ones where you only have to add water and which keep for several months.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I understand that. But I'm not sanguine about people's willingness to be contained. Edit: at least in the long term. Or their ability, once the economy completely goes sideways. I'm saying that there may not be any good solutions. Death, death and collapse, collapse. Miracle. Those seem to be our options. But I'm a pessimist.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla yeah, December 2019. As in, right now. The Ebola outbreak was, like, eight years ago? Can't remember. Meanwhile, it looks like we'll have a vaccine for Covid-19 by either the end of this year or next year.
Which, if we have to do the stringent distancing at least until then, will cause something like total economic/societal collapse. Or just won't happen. Especially if those efforts are mostly successful at keeping the apparent death toll low-ish. Basically a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation.
I believe that when the economy starts creaking worryingly all quarantines are gone and society starts moving again.
But with lasting damage done. And if then the death-toll spikes, we go back under quarantine...and up and down the yo-yo goes.
Best case--it blows over pretty quick (ie Iran/Italy were strong outliers). Probability: small.
Worst case--yo-yo back and forth so we get both the global recession++ AND the high death toll. Probability: incalculable. But not zero.I think treatments will be available within a month or two that will help keep death toll down, and by then, the deaths will just be unavoidable either way so the quarantines will hurt more than they help. Also, farming will have to happen no matter if the tö death toll is in the 50% range, otherwise people will starve to death.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
So basically my info is out of date by a few months. Sue me?
Never go full :@levicki:. The problem wasn't with you not being up to date. It was the response after that where you got defensive that drew the negative response from me.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Why you'd buy fresh bread in bulk I don't quite understand. It goes bad pretty fast, and takes up massive amounts of freezer space for rather small amounts of sustenance. Hard bread sure, but that isn't what people are cleaning out the shelves of.
The real weird part is that flour was completely sold out - but the "ready-made bread baking mixtures" were still all there.
Y'know, the ones where you only have to add water and which keep for several months.
I went to the grocery store a couple of days ago. The only mixes they had were for cake. All flour and every other mix (bread, biscuit, muffin, pancake, cornbread, etc) was gone.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla I went by what Wikipedia says on the issue:
And somehow completely missed the "various experimental treatments are being developed" in the first sentence you quoted.
So basically my info is out of date by a few months. Sue me?
Is this your reaction to being shown very very wrong? Not something like "wow, I was so wrong, thank you for telling me the world sucks much less than I thought"? Why do you choose to be so negative?
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@boomzilla Seems that your guys wisened up a bit, then.
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@Rhywden I would not be willing to go that far.
What's interesting is that so far around here eggs and milk have been plentiful, though I have seen some people buying between 4 and 8 gallons of milk at once. I've heard about other places where those are all out.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
But with lasting damage done. And if then the death-toll spikes, we go back under quarantine...and up and down the yo-yo goes.
I'm pretty sure that's why we (NL) are not in full lockdown. Because full lockdown isn't sustainable for more than a few weeks. And worst-case, if a vaccine is less forthcoming than we're currently hoping for, we could be in this situation for literally a decade.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Why you'd buy fresh bread in bulk I don't quite understand. It goes bad pretty fast, and takes up massive amounts of freezer space for rather small amounts of sustenance. Hard bread sure, but that isn't what people are cleaning out the shelves of.
The real weird part is that flour was completely sold out - but the "ready-made bread baking mixtures" were still all there.
Because they're not buying things to eat - they're buying things that are traditionally stockpiled in times of panic. Their shopping list is just as irrational as their decision to stockpile in the first place.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
we could be in this situation for literally a decade.
Maybe this is the time to try to grow a real full beard then.
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
we could be in this situation for literally a decade.
Maybe this is the time to try to grow a real full beard then.
Did that over summer a few years ago. It's worked out well for me, since I'm not a very precise shaver.
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla I went by what Wikipedia says on the issue:
And somehow completely missed the "various experimental treatments are being developed" in the first sentence you quoted.
If the only software there is to do some task is at the alpha or beta stage, do you still take it seriously as a solution? Generally: no (it depends on how desperate you are). And when the fast-track solution comes up generally in a couple of years, six (I checked) years after the big outbreak seems awfully late.
So basically my info is out of date by a few months. Sue me?
Is this your reaction to being shown very very wrong? Not something like "wow, I was so wrong, thank you for telling me the world sucks much less than I thought"? Why do you choose to be so negative?
Because the first response wasn't exactly friendly, I suppose?
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@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@topspin said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Gąska said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I don't remember who, but someone on this forum said they preferred when diseases hit the wealthy western nations because then there would be a cure and coping medical treatments.
He's being proven right. Not that it's surprising.Correlation etc.
How so? It seems readily apparent that we spend more money on curing diseases that actually affect us.
Labs all around the world were hard at work even before the virus left China. That we're only getting results now that the virus spread to western countries is basically a coincident - it just so happens that both the development of cure and the global spread take about the same amount of time.
But "labs all around the world" wouldn't have been working on it without the prospective pandemic. At least not this much.
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As the COVID-19 pandemic ravages the world, digital transformation gurus and brand wealth managers are questioning if perhaps they should have done something more useful with their time on earth.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Deliverers! Deliverers! Deliverers!
I'm doing my part!
I started playing Death Stranding yesterday.
Filed under: It's weird. But good. But weird.
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@dcon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla I'm guessing it says something like no gangbangs with more than 2 people?
That's not a gangbang at all. At least, not one I want to participate in!
Filed under: No true gangbang
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Anyway, yesterday there were three deaths per hour in the city of Brescia, in Lombardy, counting 200 000 inhabitants. That's actually quite scary.
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I've got relatives in Boston. Well, they were on holiday in Aruba.
They're currently preparing for having to extend their "vacation" due to the fact that they missed the last plane.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
What's interesting is that so far around here eggs and milk have been plentiful,
I was just in the store this morning (pharmacy, yeah, other health things continue to exist still...) and our eggs were gone. One of the employees (overhead while passing by) said "I think we just got some in the back". Didn't look at milk. But the water and TP are gone. And almost all of the sports drinks. Some bread left, but not much. Most other things looked like fairly normal supplies.