Vacation Deniers
-
The biggest culprit in raising prices during that entire period was Goldman Sachs.
They couldn't have done it without there being lots of demand from the industrialising China and SE Asia. Plus North America and Europe, of course, but they've had plenty of demand for decades now. The reasons that prices have dropped a lot recently are twofold: massively increased North American production levels, and reduced demand in China due to something of an economic slowdown there. (China isn't in recession, because the industrialisation and demographic changes will keep things growing structurally, but it has slowed a lot.)
Found this and it's a terrible barrier to posting!
-
China isn't in recession, because
the industrialisation and demographic changes will keep things growing structurally, but it has slowed a lotthere have never been any reliable economic statistics, so who the hell knows.CTFY
-
Yeah, but it's relatively easy to get estimates about things like levels of imports and exports, and the shifts due to urbanisation are pretty easy to predict; it's happened in many other countries too.
It's a pretty reasonable guess that times are comparatively hard in China right now.
-
It's a pretty reasonable guess that times are comparatively hard in China right now.
They're definitely worse off than they were a few years ago. Some crazy stuff has gone on with some ridiculous decision making (like people sinking all their money into buying empty apartments), and I think it's starting to come back to haunt them.
-
it's relatively easy to get estimates about things like levels of imports and exports
Indeed. The Baltic Dry Index says a LOT about the world economy... and it reached its historic low a month ago.
-
The Baltic Dry Index
My brother works at a big shipping / export /import company in LA (the company is all over, but he's in LA). The dock strikes there have apparently had a huge impact on stuff going in and out that way. He works air freight and has been especially busy.
-
The BDI is a major LEI, it was headed downhill before the strikes, and it's a worldwide index anyway. So yeah, I'm sure some demand migrated to air freight... but since the strike is over, we'll have to see what happens.
-
I don't claim to follow it at all. I just thought it was an interesting data point.
