Polish electorial calculator
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With the new computerized system, there are now 0% invalid votes meaning that we can be absolutely certain that the incumbent won by a margin of eighteen billion to six.
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I seriously doubt 20% of voters are so stupid they can't even mark one and only one candidate.
I don't.
The people were told to mark each card with a single X - except one of the "cards" was actually a 12-or-so page booklet, with a page for each party. And I don't find it too unlikely that instead of reading the fucking cards, they just went ahead and crossed each one.
That would also explain the high PSL (a fairly low in popularity party) score - they were on the first page of the booklet...
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Yep, Florida all over again.
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What very much doesn't help is that the exit polls pointed at the slight victory of the opposition (the dark horse is in the coallition, sorta). Also, that said opposition is a conservative and almost ultra-Catholic party, with high support in the less educated areas of the country (which probably will mean more invalid votes). Also that the currently ruling party is pretty much perceived as the North Korean regime (sometimes fairly, sometimes not).
In short - tinfoil crisis ahead, as soon as they finish counting up the votes. Which is taking them almost a week now.
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Also that the currently ruling party is pretty much perceived as the North Korean regime (sometimes fairly, sometimes not).
If they've not started using flamethrowers on their mentors, you can be pretty sure that they're not quite that heinous.
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The people were told to mark each card with a single X - except one of the "cards" was actually a 12-or-so page booklet, with a page for each party. And I don't find it too unlikely that instead of reading the fucking cards, they just went ahead and crossed each one.
The booklet-card was a factor for sure. But apart from that, as with everything, Laws Of Stupidity apply. In this case, first and fourth seem to describe the situation best:
We always underestimate the number of stupid people.
and
Non-stupid people always underestimate the damaging power of stupid people.In previous elections, in some areas, number of invalid votes was also very high. Cards were simple, giant 'how to vote' posters were hanging just outside of election points, there were about 50 ways to get information about voting - and large groups of people still did it wrong.
Local election committees, which I work with, have such high number of unbelievably stupid and clueless people, that I see nothing strange in 30% of invalid votes.
68% don't understand daily news in tv, so what do you expect?
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Also, forgeries. It's not hard to put additional cross on a card to invalidate a vote on opponent. Also explains how PSL jumped from 27% on exit polls to 50% on semi-official results (based on reports from 80% of commissions).
More on the invalid votes - it's not just about the sheer amount of them. It's also their distribution. Take a look at this map:
Notice how the red splats are surrounded by blue splats. Also notice that the greatest red blob perfectly aligns with the border of Mazowsze region. And look at the major cities (where there are most people, most politicians, and most "men of confidence" - random people who sit next to commision and look at their hands) - they are all in 0-2% range.
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Also, forgeries. It's not hard to put additional cross on a card to invalidate a vote on opponent.
Only possible in small villages, where all committee members know each other and together decided to forge the votes. According to rules (which are passed to committees during election training and are to be forced by committee chairman) there are no pens in reach of committee during counting. Also, counting is performed in a large empty room, there's no place to hide and tinker with votes - you are always watched by other committee members.
I know of occasions when suspiciously acting member was excluded from the committee by others.Not saying it doesn't happen, but the impact is very limited, it's not possible to commit forgeries on global scale (without massive scandal that would invalidate elections in whole region).
Also explains how PSL jumped from 27% on exit polls to 50% on semi-official results (base on reports from 80% of commissions).
PSL gained only 1% from previous elections. They are heavily underestimated in exit polls, because people are ashamed of voting for them.
I have no idea why there are so many invalid votes in Mazowsze. It happened before. No idea.
But looking at the map more closely... dark regions are mostly 7-10%, that's not surprising at all, if anything, low rates in south-east regions is more surprising.
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Only possible in small villages, where all committee members know each other and together decided to forge the votes.
Which is majority of Poland, actually. By area, I mean, not by population.According to rules
According to the rules my ass. See: tape scandal, Ambergold, Wipler's case, more...PSL gained only 1% from previous elections.
Apparently, 32.9 - 49.9 = 1.But looking at the map more closely... dark regions are mostly 7-10%
Which is still 2-5x more than in big cities.if anything, low rates in south-east regions is more surprising.
Racist.
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Which is majority of Poland, actually. By area, I mean, not by population.
No, conditions for successful forging are rare, even in small communities.
Members of election committee don't know each other until about 2 days before elections. They are chosen semi-randomly. It takes only one person in the committee to circumvent the forging. Observers are not known to the committee until last minute, and can show up at any time up to elections end. Successful forging needs thought and skill, as strange results won't get through computer system or will flag whole vote batch for recount.
Plus, if the community is small and homogeneous enough to result in like-minded committee, elections results will be for their favorite party anyway, so forging doesn't make sense (not to mention that such small communities have low impact on overall results).
According to the rules my ass. See: tape scandal, Ambergold, Wipler's case, more...
Sorry, I can't breathe in conspiracy theory fumes. Those cases have nothing in common with vote counting.
Apparently, 32.9 - 49.9 = 1.
We'll see what's the difference after full official results. Last partial results I've seen gave them +1% from previous elections.
Which is still 2-5x more than in big cities.
Yeah, I have no explanation for the difference between Mazowsze and all the rest, but 7-10% is not high.
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If they've not started using flamethrowers on their mentors, you can be pretty sure that they're not quite that heinous.
Supposedly not. Though "all media lie", so...
Also, forgeries. It's not hard to put additional cross on a card to invalidate a vote on opponent.
Quite difficult, given the abundance of men of confidence and representants of various parties. Not saying nobody tried to pull this off, but a) it's probably not a statistically significant amount, and b) it's not like there's one single party who cheats and all other are saints, so it should balance off.
Also notice that the greatest red blob perfectly aligns with the border of Mazowsze region.
Well, smart and educated people are in Warsaw by now... Also notice how there are a lot of invalid votes in the west, much more than on the eastern wall - and the west generally votes for the party most accused of cheating.
And look at the major cities (where there are most people, most politicians, and most "men of confidence" - random people who sit next to commision and look at their hands)
Also, most educated people.
See: tape scandal, Ambergold, Wipler's case, more...
Want a roll of tinfoil?
Yeah, I have no explanation for the difference between Mazowsze and all the rest, but 7-10% is not high.
Mazowsze has a huge class difference between Warsaw and the rest of the place. Basically, everyone who's educated, or thinks they are, or even knows a guy who has been educated, goes for Warsaw.
Besides, never attribute to malice what can be equally explained by stupidity.
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Sorry, I can't breathe in conspiracy theory fumes. Those cases have nothing in common with vote counting
Okay, so have a vote counting-related one: in 2011, KNP was forbidden to register lists in half of country (including our capital Warsaw) because they were late with the signatures (you need 1000 signatures of random people to register a list). Except they weren't late, but the process of verifying the signatures took over a week (when it usually is one day) and by law, it's not the submit date that counts but verification date. They made a court case on that, but the court dismissed it because "it wouldn't affect the elections significantly" (nearly literal quote). Despite KNP getting 3% - if they got two percentage points more, which they probably had a chance to with the other half of Poland, they would enter the parliament.
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Besides, never attribute to malice what can be equally explained by stupidity.
I've always hated that phrase. It discounts human ability so much it is depressing (note: that doesn't mean it may not be true).
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I've always hated that phrase. It discounts human ability so much it is depressing
Not really. It's just the old "think of the averagely intelligent people, and then realize half of them are even dumber" thing.
Humans are very capable of amazing stuff. Just not most of them.
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Humans are very capable of amazing stuff. Just not most of them.
That is the sentiment that makes me not like the phrase. Random person off the street is incredibly capable, just probably not at the thing you are currently measuring.
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Random person off the street is incredibly capable
Actually using that capability is another matter - for various reasons, from piss poor luck of being born in the wrong place, through general laziness, to finally being dumb as a bag of rocks.
The point is, there's a lot of dumb people (or just not very smart at the thing they're doing), and not nearly as much malicious ones.
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That is the sentiment that makes me not like the phrase. Random person off the street is incredibly capable, just probably not at the thing you are currently measuring.
Something about a fish's ability to climb a tree...
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Aaaand apparently the right-wing activists are now occupying the electorial commision...
Man, we're one fucked up country.
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Aaaand apparently the right-wing activists are now occupying the electorial commision...
According to the police, about 700 people were there. According to media, over a thousand. 12 were arrested for trespassing - because the rest exited the building when police asked them. Why there must always be 1% of idiots in any protest?
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Why there must always be 1% of idiots in any protest?
There's always the 1% out there, making trouble…
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I was also asking a rhetorical question.
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Okay, so have a vote counting-related one: in 2011, KNP was forbidden to register lists in half of country (including our capital Warsaw) because they were late with the signatures (you need 1000 signatures of random people to register a list). Except they weren't late, but the process of verifying the signatures took over a week (when it usually is one day) and by law, it's not the submit date that counts but verification date. They made a court case on that, but the court dismissed it because "it wouldn't affect the elections significantly" (nearly literal quote). Despite KNP getting 3% - if they got two percentage points more, which they probably had a chance to with the other half of Poland, they would enter the parliament.
They were not 'forbidden' to register their lists, they simply didn't meet the required criteria to do so. Namely, they were late. They fucked up as usual, in embarrassing style, and after that, they did what they always do - blame others and rave about conspiracy against them.
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...because the commision took so long to count the signatures.
Not to count, but to verify them. Signature lists from KNP were badly made, hard to read, and were given to commission very late.
Why? Because KNP is a bunch of irresponsible incompetent teenagers and lazy bums that never worked in their lives. I know some of them personally, even have one of their candidates in my family. I watch their efforts during every elections, just to make fun of them.
Collection of signatures in 2011 was a lolfest.
- who's collecting signatures today?
- dunno, I can't, I have exams, maybe A will do it?
- A is away for the weekend with his girlfriend, maybe B?
- B is too drunk. Maybe C, he was collecting yesterday, how many signatures did he get?
- dunno, he never reported back, let me call him...... he says he lost the signatures on the way home.
- so... what do we do?
- let's decide tomorrow.
Similar conversations... Every. Fucking. Day.
You mentioned Warsaw? They had their signatures verified. Person responsible for delivering proof to register the lists didn't arrive on time, because... he forgot... entered wrong bus... didn't think to get a taxi...
But, you know, 'Conspiracy! We were cheated! Regime is afraid of us!' Yeah, world is trembling with fear.But, to comment about the electorial calculator, which is the original topic, I guess.
Calculator flogging escalated to hysteria. Every moron that ever wrote 5 lines of php and saw calculator source is commenting on it, bringing up outlandish claims. Self proclaimed IT experts claim that 'every teenager with a laptop could alter election results'.
'My close friend, who is a hacker, showed me yesterday how to add votes to central election system' - saw that in some newspaper today.
I don't think we have tinfoil reserves big enough in Poland.
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Not to count, but to verify them.
No matter what that was, it wasn't KNP's fault it took so long. Every illegible signature should be thrown out right there - this way, they would be able to verify list of ~1200 names within few hours, giving time to retake some signatures. But the commission preferred to stall as much as possible.Why? Because KNP is a bunch of irresponsible incompetent teenagers and lazy bums that never worked in their lives.
As if other parties didn't have those.Self proclaimed IT experts claim that 'every teenager with a laptop could alter election results'.
It's technically true. Except that it's probably verified also on the server side. And I think it's plausible it's not an official channel of communication between central and local commissions anymore.
Random question that's half-related - what are your thoughts on Wipler's case?
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No matter what that was, it wasn't KNP's fault it took so long. Every illegible signature should be thrown out right there - this way, they would be able to verify list of ~1200 names within few hours, giving time to retake some signatures. But the commission preferred to stall as much as possible.
It is their fault, because their signature lists were poorly made, making verification longer. Person gathering signatures should bar people not living in the region from signing and make sure that names are given in capital letters and id numbers written clearly, easy to read. They didn't do it properly, because there were no trainings for signature gatherers (yes, a 'training' that consists of two sentences, but there were no trainings). Their gatherers were incompetent teenagers with a general attitude of 'whatever'.
Plus, they delivered their signatures so late, because they were lazy and even in regions with many supporters, where gathering 1000 signatures should take 3-4 days, it took weeks.No other party had such problems, because other parties are capable of organizing 3-4 teams of competent people for signature gathering day after day. KNP had as much as 1 or 0 gatherers per day even in easy regions like Warsaw. For last elections the candidate from my family gathered signatures alone whenever he had time - he had no one to help, because all of his KNP buddies were partying/drunk/too lazy.
It's technically true. Except that it's probably verified also on the server side. And I think it's plausible it's not an official channel of communication between central and local commissions anymore.
That depends on what one means by 'technically true', in essence it's not true. Calculator can be operated only by a person with cryptographic signature that is generated days before election and distributed to operators by various ways, with a copy preserved on central server. Results from local committee are signed with committee crypto signature before sending to central server and printing. Committee signature is generated on central server with a one-time login-password, during elections, preserved on central server. Printed results have signature fingerprint on the bottom (barcode).
Operators and committee signatures together with results, are delivered to central authority on physical media (cd or usb stick) by committee chairman - if any of them (operator signature, committee signature, results signature, results on central server, signatures on central server) don't match, results of that committee are invalid.Random question that's half-related - what are your thoughts on Wipler's case?
He wanted to intervene in a situation that was not about him, while being drunk. He enraged police officers on the scene, got himself cuffed and somewhat battered. Policemen lied that he was aggressive.
I have no problem with cuffing and 'battering', but they should be punished for lying.
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It is their fault, because their signature lists were poorly made, making verification longer.
Bro do you even read? Illegible entries should be rejected on the spot - and if whole list is illegible, it should be rejected on the spot as a whole too.No other party had such problems, because other parties are capable of organizing 3-4 teams of competent people for signature gathering day after day.
Other parties have millions of zlotys of donations from national budget for their campaigns...KNP had as much as 1 or 0 gatherers per day even in easy regions like Warsaw. For last elections the candidate from my family gathered signatures alone whenever he had time - he had no one to help, because all of his KNP buddies were partying/drunk/too lazy.
...but this is godawful nonetheless.
Calculator can be operated only by a person with cryptographic signature that is generated days before election and distributed to operators by various ways, with a copy preserved on central server.
On the client side, signature verification is done very very poorly, verging on not at all. Don't know about the server side.He wanted to intervene in a situation that was not about him, while being drunk. He enraged police officers on the scene, got himself cuffed and somewhat battered. Policemen lied that he was aggressive.I have no problem with cuffing and 'battering', but they should be punished for lying.
If by cuffed you mean gassed, that's pretty reasonable stance - assuming being gassed isn't that bad.
Let others join the conversation
This topic is clearly important to you – you've posted more than 21% of the replies here.
Are you sure you're providing adequate time for other people to share their points of view, too?
Because me not posting is so much help for others to write their own posts...
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Because me not posting is so much help for others to write their own posts...
It's Discourse politely telling you to calm yo tits.
Personally, I think Korwin is a bit like Jesus - sometimes says something enlightening, sometimes something stupid, but boy is his fanclub obnoxious.
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Personally, I think Korwin is a bit like Jesus - sometimes says something enlightening, sometimes something stupid, but boy is his fanclub obnoxious.
Hmm, interesting analogy. It's also easy to distinguish between enlightening and stupid - with Jesus, the good parts are when he speaks about morality (abstract), and bad parts are when he gives practical tips (real world). With Korwin, the good parts are about economy (real world), and bad parts about culture (abstract). So you might say Korwin is kind of Antichrist.Why are we posting on TDWTF on Friday night at 2AM exactly?
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Bro do you even read? Illegible entries should be rejected on the spot - and if whole list is illegible, it should be rejected on the spot as a whole too.
Lists are checked the same way for every party. Unreadable entries are rejected, hard-to-read entries are examined, valid signatures are counted. No one has a problem with it. Except for KNP, the special snowflakes.
Other parties have millions of zlotys of donations from national budget for their campaigns...
Other parties have structures and competent people.
You need about 12 people for 4 days to gather signatures - a real challenge for political party that wants to rule a country....but this is godawful nonetheless.
I don't understand what you wrote here.
KNP is utterly incompetent, they fuck up on every level time after time, but it's always someone else's fault. In their minds that is. Plus, conspiracy.On the client side, signature verification is done very very poorly, verging on not at all. Don't know about the server side.
Because sent signatures must match with server side signatures and physically delivered signatures. There's no need to protect local calculator instance like fort Knox.
Mismatch detected in later steps invalidates commission results and is a signal of third party trying to tinker with elections.If by cuffed you mean gassed, that's pretty reasonable stance - assuming being gassed isn't that bad.
It's not bad, no lasting injuries occur. Warsaw police seems to like using gas on apprehended individuals. Local fashion, if you like.
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So you might say Korwin is kind of Antichrist.
Wait while I post it on the KNP forums...
Why are we posting on TDWTF on Friday night at 2AM exactly?
All three of us, apparently... Well, I crashed after work, you guys have no excuse.
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Lists are checked the same way for every party. Unreadable entries are rejected, hard-to-read entries are examined, valid signatures are counted. No one has a problem with it. Except for KNP, the special snowflakes.
There are great many sentenced you can build that end with "except for KNP". For example, all major parties are in parliament right now, except for KNP. Except for Wipler, but he was PiS until last year.I don't understand what you wrote here. KNP is utterly incompetent, they fuck up on every level time after time
I think you perfectly understand what I wrote there - since you just repeated it.they fuck up on every level time after time
Not this year. In either elections.but it's always someone else's fault. In their minds that is. Plus, conspiracy.
Sometimes, when watching interviews of mainstream media journalists with KNP politicians, you have to try really, really hard to NOT believe in conspiracy.Well, I crashed after work, you guys have no excuse.
I need to pick up my sister from cinema at 5:30, and if I go to sleep, I'll wake up at 2PM. @MrL, your turn.
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So a Polish guy walks into an optometrist office...
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So a Polish guy walks into an optometrist office...
Reminds me of one Polish commercial:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2TapCSvvHjQ
Notice the letters layout.
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So a Polish guy walks into an optometrist office...
What's the joke? That Polish people have poor eyesight? That Polish people have exceptional eyesight? That he literally walks into the office, because he's half-blind? EXPLAIN! EXPLAAAAIN!
Reminds me of one Polish commercial:
Also, a lovely case of false advertising (I suppose, since they're still in business) - you get as much discount as your age is, so a 60-years-old gets 60% discount. Take your 105-year-old grandma there, buy off the store, and get paid for it!
Filed under: everybody forgets about boundary checks
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Also, a lovely case of false advertising (I suppose, since they're still in business) - you get as much discount as your age is, so a 60-years-old gets 60% discount. Take your 105-year-old grandma there, buy off the store, and get paid for it!
Well, they had one commercial with 100 years old grandpa getting glasses for free. Also - how many people over 100 years old do you know? Personally I know none (I've seen a few in newspapers, but that's all).
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Finally, there are official results. Because those were local elections, and there were actually three-four different elections at once, and it's all complicated, I'll skip over the uninteresting details like who won and just post one number - there were 18% invalid votes country-wide. Not that much, all things considered. But I'd need more specific data to tell if something's really wrong or everything's all right.
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What's the joke? That Polish people have poor eyesight? That Polish people have exceptional eyesight? That he literally walks into the office, because he's half-blind? EXPLAIN! EXPLAAAAIN!
The exam starts, the doc asks him to read the last line. The Polish fellow says, "yeah, I know that guy!"
