Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall
As much as this will probably be seen as drifting into territory... I'm leaning toward agreement with the "this isn't that much worse than the flu" camp.I think that individually that's true, but the lack of any apparent immunity anywhere (previous exposure, vaccination, etc) like we generally have with influenza makes it a bit different and much more dangerous socially.
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@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
the first limited antibody testing such as the German town of Gangelt showing that the number of people with antibodies are significantly higher than the number of "confirmed cases"...
Again, we still don't have really reliable blood tests and also, that was a preliminary report where no one got anything but the headlines. No details, nothing. It's not a case of "not peer-reviewed", it's a case of "yeah, maybe we have something but we're not telling you why or how".
Those morons really should have held off on reporting anything but of course a marketing agency had to butt its head in and be "helpful".
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If people don't follow oders, this is what you get.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall
As much as this will probably be seen as drifting into territory... I'm leaning toward agreement with the "this isn't that much worse than the flu" camp.I think that individually that's true, but the lack of any apparent immunity anywhere (previous exposure, vaccination, etc) like we generally have with influenza makes it a bit different and much more dangerous socially.
If it wasn't much worse than the flu then we wouldn't have the hospitals in NYC stacking the dead.
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there is positive news. more than 94% of people getting infected are getting cured.
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@GuyWhoKilledBear said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
In fact, parks are one of the recommended place to go out for some fresh air - but it should be a local park. Travelling 20-30 minutes by car to go to a park or beach elsewhere is a different thing entirely.
Why?
Aren't you social distancing in your car just as much as you are in your home?
If you're travelling for 20-30 minutes, you are probably driving to a place that draws significantly more people per area than the local park.
Of course, distance to and size of the local park will vary a lot per area.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall
As much as this will probably be seen as drifting into territory... I'm leaning toward agreement with the "this isn't that much worse than the flu" camp.I think that individually that's true, but the lack of any apparent immunity anywhere (previous exposure, vaccination, etc) like we generally have with influenza makes it a bit different and much more dangerous socially.
If it wasn't much worse than the flu then we wouldn't have the hospitals in NYC stacking the dead.
Which is why I didn't say that it wasn't much worse than the flu.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall
As much as this will probably be seen as drifting into territory... I'm leaning toward agreement with the "this isn't that much worse than the flu" camp.I think that individually that's true, but the lack of any apparent immunity anywhere (previous exposure, vaccination, etc) like we generally have with influenza makes it a bit different and much more dangerous socially.
If it wasn't much worse than the flu then we wouldn't have the hospitals in NYC stacking the dead.
Which is why I didn't say that it wasn't much worse than the flu.
Yeah, my statement was meant more as a reinforcement.
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@izzion said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
And a fatality rate of 0.4%-1% of all cases, while not a good number, doesn't seem to be that much more significant than other seasonal respiratory illnesses (e.g. the flu) that we deal with without locking everyone down.
You're ignoring that other seasonal illnesses have the same issue that overstates the fatality rate. And, of course, the obvious that seasonal illnesses are not pandemic. (It's not really the 2% CFR that's the problem, it's the "everybody" is going to get it without interventions that is, i.e. the absolute numbers)
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@Nagesh said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If people don't follow oders, this is what you get.
Protip: don't google "oders".
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@Nagesh Welcome back, Nagesh.
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@Nagesh said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
there is positive news. more than 94% of people getting infected are getting cured.
Well, we still have zero data on long-term effects. Some of those who are released from intensive care might permanently stay in worse shape than before the disease.
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@dfdub said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Nagesh said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
there is positive news. more than 94% of people getting infected are getting cured.
Well, we still have zero data on long-term effects. Some of those who are released from intensive care might permanently stay in worse shape than before the disease.
At least for the lung problems, we can be moderately optimistic - the lung is spectacularly capable of self-healing.
I should know, I went from half a liter due to a double pneumonia to four liters of volume (FEV1, not capacity or other measurements). Granted, it took several years but it happened.
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This could also go in WTFBites:
Chilean Health Minister Jaime Mañalich has surprised everyone with his particular way of accounting for covid-19 deaths. "We have 898 patients who have ceased to be contagious, who are not a source of contagion for others and we include them as recovered. These are people who have turned 14 days old or have unfortunately died," Mañalich explains at a press conference.
Autotranslate but you get the gist. But the translation is rather apt: Yeah, you definitely cease to be ... erm, contagious if you're dead from Covid-19.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I think a good move here is that for many things there hasn't been full lockdown in the first place - it has been very reactionary. Like how beaches were closed two weeks ago after a lot of people went there on the first warm weekend
I live in a tourist area, and there are pretty much none here now, despite it being the middle of Easter holiday at the moment, which normally brings in flocks of Dutch, German and assorted other tourists. Of course, the provincial government decision that camp sites etc. are not allowed to open probably has a lot to do with that.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Beaches tend to draw packed crowds.
Define "packed." I've rarely been on a beach where I wasn't at least six feet apart from people aside from my family.
It depends on a lot of things. Certain popular seaside towns in the Netherlands can have crowds on the beach so closely packed that you have to zig-zag between the people.
And that doesn’t seem to be high tide yet. Granted, it's also in the middle of summer, not mid-April, but still.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@GuyWhoKilledBear said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
In fact, parks are one of the recommended place to go out for some fresh air - but it should be a local park. Travelling 20-30 minutes by car to go to a park or beach elsewhere is a different thing entirely.
Why?
Aren't you social distancing in your car just as much as you are in your home?
If you're travelling for 20-30 minutes, you are probably driving to a place that draws significantly more people per area than the local park.
Of course, distance to and size of the local park will vary a lot per area.
Plus the further you drive, the more likely you are to breakdown (and need a breakdown service to attend) or be involved in an accident.
It's not a big chance but it's higher than staying at home.
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@loopback0 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
It's not a big chance but it's higher than staying at home.
I don't think that is entirely accurate:
vs.
Think driving is safer.
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@Dragoon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
most fatal
@Dragoon said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Deaths
If you're dead, catching Coronavirus is largely
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@loopback0 said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If you're dead, catching Coronavirus is largely
Just you wait, this could merely be the start of the zombie apocalypse.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
However, I get the impression many people thing this means restrictions will be reduced now (current measures are till 28 april; extensions will be announced on the 21st). I suspect those people are due a cold shower, and everything will be extended for another month at least once.
Unfortunately, I think you're correct. The Governor of Virginia (where I live) has been signalling that he's going to extend the stuff that's currently set to end in a week or so.
I think that we definitely are at a place where we need to start loosening some of the lock down aspects. I definitely think we're not ready for large gatherings (parties, concerts, in person spectator sports, etc) but should allow businesses to open if they can take reasonable precautions (limited people inside, distancing, wearing masks, etc).
Stuff isn't going to roar back immediately but the longer we hold off the worse it's going to be.
I basically agree. But I'm worried about the (limited) ability of people to understand nuance. I'm afraid they'll see "loosening" as "removing" and will disregard precautions. Or at least a significant subset of them. Which will inevitably cause the Powers that Be to lock things down as an (over)reaction. And we'll bounce back and forth between full lock-down and full opening, like a motor that doesn't have variable speeds. And that will suck.
No doubt. But I don't think it's too dissimilar from Prohibition. People should use alcohol in moderation. Some don't. But trying to prevent anyone from using it backfires big time and that's where we're headed with the lock downs.
I think that most people are being fairly responsible now that they have a better understanding of what's going on. As in literally every other case, I think we'll be better off depending on individuals than implementing a police state.
Oh absolutely. I'm just a
realistpessimist about the intelligence of human beings.Human beings aren't too bad. Large groups of them though.
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@Rhywden
But this would be so much less funny with a proper translation!
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@frillunflop said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden
But this would be so much less funny with a proper translation!But where's the fun in that
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@Carnage said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
However, I get the impression many people thing this means restrictions will be reduced now (current measures are till 28 april; extensions will be announced on the 21st). I suspect those people are due a cold shower, and everything will be extended for another month at least once.
Unfortunately, I think you're correct. The Governor of Virginia (where I live) has been signalling that he's going to extend the stuff that's currently set to end in a week or so.
I think that we definitely are at a place where we need to start loosening some of the lock down aspects. I definitely think we're not ready for large gatherings (parties, concerts, in person spectator sports, etc) but should allow businesses to open if they can take reasonable precautions (limited people inside, distancing, wearing masks, etc).
Stuff isn't going to roar back immediately but the longer we hold off the worse it's going to be.
I basically agree. But I'm worried about the (limited) ability of people to understand nuance. I'm afraid they'll see "loosening" as "removing" and will disregard precautions. Or at least a significant subset of them. Which will inevitably cause the Powers that Be to lock things down as an (over)reaction. And we'll bounce back and forth between full lock-down and full opening, like a motor that doesn't have variable speeds. And that will suck.
No doubt. But I don't think it's too dissimilar from Prohibition. People should use alcohol in moderation. Some don't. But trying to prevent anyone from using it backfires big time and that's where we're headed with the lock downs.
I think that most people are being fairly responsible now that they have a better understanding of what's going on. As in literally every other case, I think we'll be better off depending on individuals than implementing a police state.
Oh absolutely. I'm just a
realistpessimist about the intelligence of human beings.Human beings aren't too bad. Large groups of them though.
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@acrow "Police reported that while the crime was serious, they are familiar with Moore and don’t believe he intended to harm anyone. Moore is now being evaluated to determine if his mental health played a factor in the theft."
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The professor predicted that forthcoming research would give scientstists and health officials a "much more accurate understanding of how widespread this is."
So, in short, we only have his opinion. Why is this guy a professor again?
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
The professor predicted that forthcoming research would give scientstists and health officials a "much more accurate understanding of how widespread this is."
So, in short, we only have his opinion. Why is this guy a professor again?
So he can profess.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
The professor predicted that forthcoming research would give scientstists and health officials a "much more accurate understanding of how widespread this is."
So, in short, we only have his opinion. Why is this guy a professor again?
Did you get that question peer reviewed? Why should we answer it?
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@boomzilla The point is that he delivered nothing what he haven't heard before: "Oh, it's not that bad!" while not coming up with any substantial evidence to underly his bold claim.
Of course Fox News will lap that up. I'm not seeing why I'm the bad guy here suddenly for calling out the dearth of information behind that load of hot air from some unknow guy.
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Looks like my county's going flat, we're only seeing 1 - 2 new cases per day and we're by the far the most populous area in the state. Also, the antibody tests would be very interesting to me because despite 100% isolation, I've been sick twice during all of this. Cold/flu-like symptoms that only lasted for a day.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla The point is that he delivered nothing what he haven't heard before: "Oh, it's not that bad!" while not coming up with any substantial evidence to underly his bold claim.
Ah, the old "Without evidence!" claim, when in fact everything points to his conclusion. And he did explain his reasoning.
Of course Fox News will lap that up. I'm not seeing why I'm the bad guy here suddenly for calling out the dearth of information behind that load of hot air from some unknow guy.
I know, it's always a mystery to you. That you consider him "some unknow(sic) guy" says a lot, too. There's nothing really novel about his take, but thanks for shoving your prejudice into the thread.
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@boomzilla Ah? So, please, point me at his research papers which he surely did write up to support his claims?
But here, someone else already ripped him a new one. Since your source is Fox News and Tucker Carlson, I think I'm allowed to use this:
https://www.reddit.com/r/skeptic/comments/g1g7dg/dr_eran_bendavid_and_dr_jay_bhattacharyas_wsj/
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla Ah? So, please, point me at his research papers which he surely did write up to support his claims?
Why? This is retarded.
But here, someone else already ripped him a new one. Since your source is Fox News and Tucker Carlson, I think I'm allowed to use this:
It doesn't relate to TFA that was posted here, but sure, knock yourself out.
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Note for our foreign friends: Tyler Cowen is a well-known economist and certainly not a Trump fan.
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@Benjamin-Hall Just one thing I just noticed, not disputing the point what with how the US doesn't have the safety nets we have, he references Lyman Stone.
One thing caught my attention:
Because he later on says this:
I can only guess that he doesn't read his own words?
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@Rhywden I was focused more on the other parts of the directly-linked post, not the source. Dunno about that. And I'm not endorsing (or rejecting) anything. Just noting that other people other than myself have concerns about how long we can really sustain this. And all the safety net in the world doesn't help if the businesses that actually, you know, make things are out of business. Because the government, while it can supply money, can't actually create food or steel or any of that very well. Nor will people just sit by and let it happen, not unless the danger is truly catastrophic and overwhelmingly obvious. Which it isn't across much of the (non-NYC-area) US. And even NYC? Not overwhelmed. They're sending nurses home due to lack of demand. Washington and other states have given back the "temporary hospital" structures they had opened with federal aid, because they were basically empty.
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@Benjamin-Hall Do you have a source for NYC sending nurses home due to lack of demand?
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall Do you have a source for NYC sending nurses home due to lack of demand?
I do.
@boomzilla said in Novel Bioweapon Conspiracy Thread:
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@Rhywden I don't take any article too seriously that uses words like "stupid".
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@jinpa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden I don't take any article too seriously that uses words like "stupid".
Not sure why you're using FoxNews then as a source of "news".
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@boomzilla Well, let's see how it turns out then.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall Do you have a source for NYC sending nurses home due to lack of demand?
I remember reading it (possibly here), but no. Not directly. So I'll withdraw that one at least partially.
But I do know that there are no significant reports of the kind of overwhelming crush that Lombardy had, for instance. And the US media would be all over that in a heartbeat (not just for partisan reasons, but because death sells in the media business). Yet there haven't been such stories. And according to Governor Cuomo, ICU beds are freeing up and have been. That is, the number of acute hospitalizations is on a downward trend. So if they weren't overwhelmed before, and the trend is downward, it's going to be a very hard sell to Joe Schmo in Idaho, where things are barely even ticking outside Sun Valley (the local "rich celebrity" area where Hollywood types have mansions) that it's essential to keep the whole country on lock-down. Which was my point.
Of course, @Karla would know more details.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@jinpa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden I don't take any article too seriously that uses words like "stupid".
Not sure why you're using FoxNews then as a source of "news".
Yes, you've made your stance clear on that front. No one gives a shit.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@jinpa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden I don't take any article too seriously that uses words like "stupid".
Not sure why you're using FoxNews then as a source of "news".
Yes, you've made your stance clear on that front. No one gives a shit.
Okay boomer.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall Do you have a source for NYC sending nurses home due to lack of demand?
I remember reading it (possibly here), but no. Not directly. So I'll withdraw that one at least partially.
But I do know that there are no significant reports of the kind of overwhelming crush that Lombardy had, for instance. And the US media would be all over that in a heartbeat (not just for partisan reasons, but because death sells in the media business). Yet there haven't been such stories. And according to Governor Cuomo, ICU beds are freeing up and have been. That is, the number of acute hospitalizations is on a downward trend. So if they weren't overwhelmed before, and the trend is downward, it's going to be a very hard sell to Joe Schmo in Idaho, where things are barely even ticking outside Sun Valley (the local "rich celebrity" area where Hollywood types have mansions) that it's essential to keep the whole country on lock-down. Which was my point.
Of course, @Karla would know more details.
Additionally, while some hospitals were getting overwhelmed in COVID other departments were practically deserted. Health care workers and companies are suffering from this, too. Not as badly as companies that are shut down, of course.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@jinpa said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Rhywden I don't take any article too seriously that uses words like "stupid".
Not sure why you're using FoxNews then as a source of "news".
If you can find an actual article I've supplied that uses that word or a word like it, then you might have a point.
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A large PCR (ie active infection) testing at a Boston homeless shelter--roughly 5x as many tested positive as had symptoms. Either the tests are crap or the virus is largely asymptomatic and way wider spread. Or both. Which is my guess. And homeless people aren't exactly the healthiest out there, so it's weird. Some people get hit hecka hard, most just don't even feel it. Or the tests are bunk. Or both.
Pull quote from the abstract:
Boston Health Care for the Homeless Program conducted symptom assessments and polymerase chain reaction (PCR) testing for SARS-CoV-2 among all guests residing at the shelter over a 2-day period. Of 408 participants, 147 (36.0%) were PCR-positive for SARS-CoV-2. COVID-positive individuals were more likely to be male (p<0.001) but did not differ significantly from COVID-negative individuals with respect to other demographic and clinical characteristics. Cough (7.5%), shortness of breath (1.4%), and fever (0.7%) were all uncommon among COVID-positive individuals.