Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
As teenagers we would so something similar.
Um, yeah...as teenagers.
Possibly up to the mid 20's.
Maybe in to the 30's.
Okay, I might have used that joke a couple of months ago.
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Just heard on the radio - apparently there is a queue of Dutch people wanting to fill up their car in Belgium.
The gas price there is less than 1 euro per liter.
The fine for crossing the border and moving yourself in Belgium unnecessarily is 4000 euro.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Just heard on the radio - apparently there is a queue of Dutch people wanting to fill up their car in Belgium.
The gas price there is less than 1 euro per liter.
The fine for crossing the border and moving yourself in Belgium unnecessarily is 4000 euro.I bought gas yesterday at Sam's Club for $1.98 per gallon. The other regularly cheap stations near me were 21¢ higher. Usually there's a spread of less than 10¢. Not sure why it's so big right now.
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@PleegWat
There are patrols on several spaces along the border. I just saw some pist of people on the news because they had to turn around.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Just heard on the radio - apparently there is a queue of Dutch people wanting to fill up their car in Belgium.
The gas price there is less than 1 euro per liter.
The fine for crossing the border and moving yourself in Belgium unnecessarily is 4000 euro.I bought gas yesterday at Sam's Club for $1.98 per gallon. The other regularly cheap stations near me were 21¢ higher. Usually there's a spread of less than 10¢. Not sure why it's so big right now.
I'm not sure of your local and state laws but we have regulations here as to when gas stations can change their prices. On 9/11 there were some gas stations that jacked up prices in the wake of the panic. Now gas stations can only change prices when they purchase a new load of fuel.
I don't know if that's the case where you are, but if Sam's turns over fuel more regularly it could explain why there's such a spread at the moment.
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@Polygeekery the only thing I could find from a quick bit of googling was that NJ limits stations to once every 24 hours. I can't find anything from Virginia. I doubt that they're limited to taking on a refill. Seems like the prices change more frequently than that, though I don't pay that close attention. The quarantine is, after all, only a minor lifestyle change for me.
Also the Sheets and Wawa (aforementioned cheap stations) are easily as busy as Sam's, which is typically a lot less busy than Costco gas stations seem to be. But also, those stations may be more profit oriented on gas than Sam's is and so less eager to reduce the prices if they don't have to.
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@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I saw he made some vague, empty promise about how Tesla would make respirators if needed. I imagine the fan boys were fawning in adoration over that one.
The thing they don't realize is that we need them basically now. This isn't the early 1900's anymore where any place with mills and lathes can reset their Bridgeports and make some fixtures and start cranking out rifles. Retooling from Mass producing cars to medical equipment would take longer than the pandemic.
I don't have anything to say about Musk (and I know you just love him ), nor do I know whether it has an actual chance of helping, but he's not alone with this train of thought:
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@Gurth said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
the minister for health care and sports
Was he the minister of two departments, health care and sports, or the minister of sports-related health care?
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@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
I saw he made some vague, empty promise about how Tesla would make respirators if needed. I imagine the fan boys were fawning in adoration over that one.
Now we just need someone to come up with a helpful solution so he can call them a pedo
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@boomzilla
join the club!
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@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
As teenagers we would so something similar.
Um, yeah...as teenagers.
Possibly up to the mid 20's.
Maybe in to the 30's.
Okay, I might have used that joke a couple of months ago.
Be honest, you'll be pulling that gag on your future grandkids. And then one of them will do it to somebody and get in trouble. Bad grandpa!
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@Luhmann said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla
join the club!#NotMyState
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@blek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
7-9 PM is when most people go to work
Night owls, indeed.
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Carlson also pointed out strippers are part of the American fabric of life.
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If he brought Boomzilla's religion to the surface, he's earned some leniency in the after-life.
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Some people should just move to the middle of Greenland.
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@Gurth said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
if you can’t handle the stress of a crisis situation, why were you a cabinet minister in the first place?
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@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Wait, what?
Fake edit: Oh, after RTFA, yeah.
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@hungrier said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Gurth said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
the minister for health care and sports
Was he the minister of two departments, health care and sports, or the minister of sports-related health care?
Neither … he was minister of the department of “health care and sports”. Don’t ask me why that was his job description, but he was a minister without portfolio whose post was, for some reason, created as part of the Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (Dutch: Ministerie van Volksgezondheid, Welzijn en Sport). I’ve never really understood why sports needs to be included in the name, but it has been for ages.
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Whooops! There goes Illinois:
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@El_Heffe said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Tesla told to shut down its factory. Elon Musk says "Fuck You".
Pretty sure I heard on the radio yesterday afternoon (as I drove to work to grab on 27" 4K monitor - that was weird, lights off, no one there) that they were shutting down. Didn't hear about the county pressure... The way the report was presented was Tesla was a great company and doing it's employees a favor.
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@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@boomzilla said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
My company hooks us up with a service where you can call a doctor and get a consult over the phone. It normally comes with a $40 copay but the company is covering that between now and June 4th.
That may not be accurate. Our health insurance has a similar program and now through June 4th the telemedicine company is foregoing all co-pays. My wife's employer doesn't have to cover any of it.
Not that they shouldn't be commended for the action, but they are also doing it in part to get people to try their service.
Our company's doing the same thing.
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@dcon Guess the report bought Tesla's press release then. Considering Elon's recent public statements I'd take any statement from Tesla with a huge grain of salt.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Some people should just move to the middle of Greenland.
They should let them gather. In one place. At the Hotel California.
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You guys know that I'm not the biggest fan of guns. But these idiots make it very hard to stay anti-gun.
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What, you want to give them guns?!
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@Rhywden they're idiots but young, so possibly not completely hopeless, and when shit hits the fan, humanity will need young and strong people - so I suggest whipping instead of shooting.
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@Rhywden said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
You guys know that I'm not the biggest fan of guns. But these idiots make it very hard to stay anti-gun.
Ehr, you took the wrong turn to the garage. But do remember, if you can have a gun then most likely so do those folks you're ridiculing.
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@blek said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
young
I'd say that makes them especially hopeless (31)
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Doing some mathematical noodling to test some intuition about the effects of testing on the perceived numbers.
Assumptions:
- The total infections caused by a disease with no immunity (simplest case) follows an erf-like curve. This means that the rate of new cases is a Gaussian, which seems rational. I'll also do it with a logistic function, since that's probably even more natural. Using a normalized erf with a midpoint set to T = 25 days for pure convenience. The logistic curve will use
L = 1
,x0 = 25
, andk
will be variable. - I'm going to presume that it reaches some fixed segment of the population and do everything in terms of that fixed amount. All reported y-values will be the in terms of the fraction of the final population y in {0.0, 1.0}. X values are days since start of spread.
- Testing is perfect, but not instant. It starts some
T0
days after spread begins and increases linearly at ratem
until everyone's tested or the end of the reporting period.
Here's a simple (erf) case with
T0 = 5
andm = 0.1
(5 day delay and 10 days to full testing):
Note that the white line (the perceived/known cases) has a sharp inflection point at 15 days. It seems to be growing exponentially, but then kicks over. Despite nothing having changed about the disease's spread. Just because we're seeing more cases.
Here's a logistic case (
k = 0.25
,T0 = 15
[1],m = 0.05
) showing that the same sort of thing can happen with that model, although early testing reduces the effect on the logistic model much more strongly than on the erf model.[1] Numbers chosen so that the overall shape is similar to the first one in that it reaches y ~ 1 near the end of the period. 15 days for this one is about the same relative time (relative to T | y = 0.5) as for the erf case due to the much slower initial spread.
What does this mean? You can get distinct effects "peaking"/"inflection point" outputs from ramping up delayed testing even if nothing else changes. The perception of total cases (and thus the Case Fatality Rate, the number always quoted) depends more on testing than on the actual facts on the ground. Thoughts?
Note: these numbers were chosen arbitrarily, not trying to model this particular virus at all.
- The total infections caused by a disease with no immunity (simplest case) follows an erf-like curve. This means that the rate of new cases is a Gaussian, which seems rational. I'll also do it with a logistic function, since that's probably even more natural. Using a normalized erf with a midpoint set to T = 25 days for pure convenience. The logistic curve will use
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Very interesting, thanks!
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Day one of quarantine. A guy who was treated in a hospital in Montevideo escaped from the hospital and went on a ferry to Buenos Aires. He ended up having coronavirus symptoms and all of the passengers were quarantined.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Here's a simple (erf) case with
T0 = 5
andm = 0.1
(5 day delay and 10 days to full testing)While erf has sigmoidal shape, which is what the usual models produce, you cut this one in half. Unless I'm misunderstanding what you're trying to represent, this doesn't look qualitatively correct.
Here's a logistic case (
k = 0.25
,T0 = 15
[1],m = 0.05
) showing that the same sort of thing can happen with that model, although early testing reduces the effect on the logistic model much more strongly than on the erf model.The second graph does look more or less like what I expect.
What does this mean? You can get distinct effects "peaking"/"inflection point" outputs from ramping up delayed testing even if nothing else changes. The perception of total cases (and thus the Case Fatality Rate, the number always quoted) depends more on testing than on the actual facts on the ground. Thoughts?
I think this is well known among the experts. Just today I read something vaguely similar (I don't actually remember the details) that we're going to see some things that are statistical effects only. Obviously, the fatality rates depend strongly on it an will thus drop with more testing.
I think the US is currently experiencing this situation in that it is rising more sharply than expected the last few days due to more people getting tested. However, even if this generates two sharp kinks in the curves, once this is adjusted you still have exponential growth.Side note: what did you use for plotting? The glowing halo adds no value (and is probably bad for printing), but I like the look.
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@topspin Technically yes on the erf. I should have gone from - INF instead of 0. So the logistic one is probably better.
I'm less concerned about experts than about everyone else. I expect that the experts mostly understand this--it isn't a difficult idea. But politicians, policy makers, and regular people don't. Three things I see mangled in the reporting:
- Case Fatality Rate has this lagged, partial number in it. Because it's
deaths / total known cases
, and the denominator is known to be bad. Infection Fatality Rate (deaths/total real cases
) would be a better number, but the denominator is unknown. - The "exponential growth* case is more about the steepness of the curve. Measuring doubling rates based on tested cases dramatically over-estimates the growth/seriousness, at least while testing is ramping up. And we'll never actually get 100% testing. I'll put a graph of the logistic case with the testing artificially capped at 50% (in reality it's much much lower than that).
- Testing only people who come in to the hospital with severe symptoms leads to really really skewed numbers. And for the worse. If you're only testing the 10% (WAG) that have bad symptoms, your CFR is going to be really really bad. While the true number (IFR) hasn't changed a bit.
Basically unless your test has lots of false positives, CFR ≥ IFR. If you know about all the cases, the two are the same. And deaths are pretty well known, but the denominators are WAGs.
As for the software, that's one of the options in Excel 2017, one of the stock "Chart Styles". Yeah, it'd suck for printing and doesn't actually mean much, but it makes the lines pop!
- Case Fatality Rate has this lagged, partial number in it. Because it's
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@magnusmaster said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Day one of quarantine. A guy who was treated in a hospital in Montevideo escaped from the hospital and went on a ferry to Buenos Aires. He ended up having coronavirus symptoms and all of the passengers were quarantined.
Idiots. Idiots everywhere.
This also makes it (more) clear to me that full quarantine/"lock-down" isn't going to go well in lots of places. Because there really are idiots everywhere. And not just idiots, but people with real needs, etc.
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@Benjamin-Hall According to the Imperial College the only way to stop millions of deaths is to basically stop what we're doing and stay at home until the vaccine is ready, which would take at least 18 months. Expecting people to abandon all social life for that long is even more insane than doing absolutely nothing. The best we can possibly do is maybe cut deaths by half by locking down a couple of months, which would mean millions of people saved, but millions of people still dead.
Here in Argentina the coronavirus is going to be devastating. The economy was about to have the biggest implosion in history even in the best case scenario due to people voting the most incompetent government in history and printing records amount of money, now with the coronavirus not only our exports are fucked but our health system which was already overworked is going to collapse, even more money is going to be printed with less real goods and services being produced, and most people here are dirt poor so they can't afford to lockdown and they have the IQ of a chimpanzee so they can't even understand what quarantine means (I'm only slightly exaggerating). The economic meltdown here will be of biblical proportions. We'll be lucky if we don't end up in civil war.
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@magnusmaster said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Benjamin-Hall According to the Imperial College the only way to stop millions of deaths is to basically stop what we're doing and stay at home until the vaccine is ready, which would take at least 18 months. Expecting people to abandon all social life for that long is even more insane than doing absolutely nothing. The best we can possibly do is maybe cut deaths by half by locking down a couple of months, which would mean millions of people saved, but millions of people still dead.
Here in Argentina the coronavirus is going to be devastating. The economy was about to have the biggest implosion in history even in the best case scenario due to people voting the most incompetent government in history and printing records amount of money, now with the coronavirus not only our exports are fucked but our health system which was already overworked is going to collapse, even more money is going to be printed with less real goods and services being produced, and most people here are dirt poor so they can't afford to lockdown and they have the IQ of a chimpanzee so they can't even understand what quarantine means (I'm only slightly exaggerating). The economic meltdown here will be of biblical proportions. We'll be lucky if we don't end up in civil war.Yeah. "Lock everything down for 18 months" is, in my opinion, worse than millions of deaths. Because it would mean the collapse of civilization as we know it. And that's the best case. More importantly, it's panic-mongering, because it's totally impractical and everyone knows it.
I estimate that, in 1st-world countries, if the lockdown isn't officially over by May-ish, people will start flagrantly disregarding it anyway and things will return to "normal". And will probably violently resist any attempt to reimpose the lock-down by martial law. Here in the US, they're talking about sending ~$2k to each [family|person]. That's about 1 month of a conservative burn rate for many people between rent, car payments, debt payments, etc. And if you say that they don't have to pay rent...landlords go under (because they still have expenses to pay. Not to mention huge swaths of the country that just can't function in isolation. Supply chains don't work that way. Even the ones that are strictly domestic (which most aren't).
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@cvi said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
@Polygeekery said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Insta-Pot version of barbacoa
I would ask for a recipe, but finding a decent piece of roast in this country is bloody impossible even under normal circumstances. (Would probably have to go to a real-life butcher; dunno if those are even open at the moment.)
Because 1) you've hit on something I can supply, and 2) I love torturing people with things they can't get, and 3) this too shall pass, and there will be chuck roasts in grocery stores again:
Recipe for barbacoa/pot roast:
Put chuck roast in slow cooker.
Shake half a packet of dried onion soup/dip mix over roast. (I usually aim for more onion and less dust. The dust is pretty salty.)
Add 50/50 mix of red wine and water until you almost cover the top of the meat.
Run slow cooker on high for ~5 hours, or on low for ~10 hours.
Optional: if you remember, add new potatoes (and/or carrots cut lengthwise in ~quarters) half-or-one hour before completed (depending on temp).Have a nice roast for dinner. (I'll admit I often skip this step these days, because I like roast, but I love tacos.)
Pull leftovers apart with forks or your favorite meat-shredding tools. It's much easier to shred the meat when it's hot.
Save about a cup of the roast juices.This recipe was adapted from my mother's recipe for pot roast, which involved a roasting pan and an oven at ~250 degrees for 3 hours rather than a slow cooker. (In the roasting pan, only fill up the wine/water mix until it's about halfway up the roast. Probably about half a cup each of wine and water.)
Recipe for taco meat:
Dice half an onion per pound of meat you prepared above, and heat (at medium) in a large pan (with some oil) for a bit. (5-10 min? However you like your onions.)
Mince/press a couple of garlic cloves per pound of meat, and add to onions. Heat for another minute.
Add ~8oz of your favorite salsa per pound of meat (I use Newman's Own Tequila-Lime Salsa), and the meat, and ~half-a-cup of roast juices you saved earlier per pound of meat.
Simmer, stirring occasionally, until you start running out of juices, 15-30 minutes.Serve with your favorite taco fixings. Probably includes some taco shells. (My family uses a recipe they got from a Minnesota taco stand: soft and hard tacos, with a tortilla wrapped around the outside of a taco shell. Space between shell and tortilla is filled with refried beans or guacamole.)
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@PotatoEngineer This sounds way too easy and convenient.
Usually when I have to buy
redwine, I end up staring at the wall of different wines, and have no clue what to pick. Any recommendations regarding type?
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@cvi for long cooking, it doesn't really matter. As long as it's drinkable. The fine differences will go away quickly when heated.
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@magnusmaster said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
Expecting people to abandon all social life for that long is even more insane than doing absolutely nothing.
Yes. Especially when, as Ben noted above, the true lethality of the virus is severely inflated by the "unknown denominator", which there's good reason to believe is huge, making it at least an order of magnitude less scary than the incomplete data we currently have appears to suggest.
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@PleegWat said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
they don't keep all that long
Huh? Why not? A month or too not long enough for you?
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@JBert said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
which has been made undrinkable.
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@admiral_p said in Tales from Coronavee-rooss Italy, mamma mia!:
If the only software there is to do some task is at the alpha or beta stage, do you still take it seriously as a solution? Generally: no (it depends on how desperate you are).
Yeah. For example, I use one called "Windows".
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