PARADE!! (continued again) (in a new thread because the Monty Hall problem is boring once you've figured it out unless Monty is on to you)
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Monty figured out a way he could make his problem less easily solved:
Monty Hall on the Monty Hall Problem
From the New York Times Science section in 1991: HEADLINE: Behind Monty Hall\'s Doors: Puzzle, Debate and Answer? BYLINE: By JOHN TIERNEY, Special to The New York Times DATELINE: BEVERLY HILLS, Calif., July 20 Mr. [Monty] Hall [host of Let\'s Make a Deal] said he was not surprised at the experts\'...
Mr. Hall continued: “Now do you see what happened there? The higher I got, the more you thought the car was behind Door 2. I wanted to con you into switching there, because I knew the car was behind 1. That’s the kind of thing I can do when I’m in control of the game. You may think you have probability going for you when you follow the answer in her column, but there’s the psychological factor to consider.”
He proceeded to prove his case by winning the next eight rounds. Whenever the contestant began with the wrong door, Mr. Hall promptly opened it and awarded the goat; whenever the contestant started out with the right door, Mr. Hall allowed him to switch doors and get another goat. The only way to win a car would have been to disregard Ms. vos Savant’s advice and stick with the original door.
Was Mr. Hall cheating? Not according to the rules of the show, because he did have the option of not offering the switch, and he usually did not offer it. …
Which means, of course, that the only person who can answer this version of the Monty Hall Problem is Monty Hall himself. Here is what should be the last word on the subject: “If the host is required to open a door all the time and offer you a switch, then you should take the switch,” he said. “But if he has the choice whether to allow a switch or not, beware. Caveat emptor. It all depends on his mood.
“My only advice is, if you can get me to offer you $5,000 not to open the door, take the money and go home.”
