The Official Weather Status
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@dkf said in The Official Weather Status:
More energy in the atmosphere means more power for storms.
Except that storms are driven by temperature gradients, something that are actually diminished by "global warming", since the planet isn't warming uniformly.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in The Official Weather Status:
@dkf said in The Official Weather Status:
More energy in the atmosphere means more power for storms.
Except that storms are driven by temperature gradients, something that are actually diminished by "global warming", since the planet isn't warming uniformly.
For a storm, what matters are local energy sources (relative to the size of the storm) and there's all sorts of those. Some storms are definitely coupled to the jet stream as their main input energy, for example. Others are powered by water vapour condensation, a big factor in hurricanes. I'm sure there's more options. There's a lot of processes involved that are incredibly difficult to account for, whether in weather forecasts or climate models, and those tend to be highly relevant for larger storms.
The increased number of major storms has been observed. Whatever model you are using to predict a lesser number overall, it doesn't seem to be holding up against the data.
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@dkf said in The Official Weather Status:
The increased number of major storms has been observed.
No. Not when accounting for observation/reporting bias. And anything further needs to happen in the .
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@dkf said in The Official Weather Status:
The increased number of major storms has been observed.
In the sense that now we see everything everywhere, sure. And yes, there are plenty of that sort of "observation" in the media, but there are no observations that point to some kind of long term trend (i.e., outside the normal noise of year to year variation) of things getting worse in this sense.
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@boomzilla I was thinking more in terms of, say, the number of named hurricanes in the Atlantic season. That's reasonably measurable...
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The graph shows distinctly busy and quiet periods: higher hurricane numbers in the late 19th century, mid-20th century, and from the mid-1990s onward, but lower numbers in the early 20th century, and in the 1970s to early-1990s. It’s also worth pointing out that there is no significant trend upward in the estimated total number of hurricanes. Chris also demonstrated (in 2015’s Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society) that the number of hurricanes affecting the U.S. (with no adjustments required) shows no significant trend since 1900, in agreement with the Vecchi et al. basin-wide estimated reconstructions and with updated U.S. landfalling hurricane and major hurricane time series.
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@dcon Not exactly. Warning is when the cake is in the oven. Emergency is when it's fully complete.
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@HardwareGeek said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon Not exactly. Warning is when the cake is in the oven. Emergency is when it's fully complete.
I forget if there's a term for before-watch, but that would be the shopping list.
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@dcon said in The Official Weather Status:
@HardwareGeek said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon Not exactly. Warning is when the cake is in the oven. Emergency is when it's fully complete.
I forget if there's a term for before-watch, but that would be the shopping list.
Nah, because a shopping list actually exists, whereas the weather forecast being accurate is a fairy tale.
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@izzion said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon said in The Official Weather Status:
@HardwareGeek said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon Not exactly. Warning is when the cake is in the oven. Emergency is when it's fully complete.
I forget if there's a term for before-watch, but that would be the shopping list.
Nah, because a shopping list actually exists, whereas the weather forecast being accurate is a fairy tale.
You have weird weather forecasts over there.
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@topspin said in The Official Weather Status:
@izzion said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon said in The Official Weather Status:
@HardwareGeek said in The Official Weather Status:
@dcon Not exactly. Warning is when the cake is in the oven. Emergency is when it's fully complete.
I forget if there's a term for before-watch, but that would be the shopping list.
Nah, because a shopping list actually exists, whereas the weather forecast being accurate is a fairy tale.
You have weird weather forecasts over there.
Well, ok, teeeeechnically every weather forecast is accurate because a day will have sun, clouds, rain, storms, and potentially snow all in the same 24 hour period. But usually the weatherman is way off on the sequencing and timing
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The severe thunderstorm we didn't get this morning, we did get this evening. Not really; it didn't achieve severe status. I didn't see or hear any hail, much less any big enough to meet the criteria, and although it was very windy, I don't think the wind speed met the criteria, either. However, it did produce a lot of thunder and lightning. I didn't pull out my camera until it was mostly over. My house is surrounded by large oak trees, so there isn't much clear view of the sky, and hardly any from a dry place. Nevertheless, I did manage to capture a few decent pictures.