how can this virus be declining on SK?
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If it spreads like a cold as they les me to believe, how after just a peak of 8k infected its already declining there? There is 50M people there, and I don't buy it's because of containment.
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This virus has median incubation period of 5 - 7 days.
So if your government implemented a new policy to deal with the virus and you see the drop happened within 5 days, there is high chance that it is fake.
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
If it spreads like a cold as they les me to believe
No, it's worse. Because it has an incubation period of a week. So people are spreading it for a week without even knowing they're sick.
@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
I don't buy it's because of containment.
Not containment, but "social distancing". Which is basically what the entire US is doing at this point too.
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Well, they've had experience with such outbreaks in recent years, so they had measures in place. Started rolling them out when they had their first case, and were testing thousands of people daily within a couple of weeks. That was something like two months ago.
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@cheong Not my government, just looking statistics in other countries for reference on how bad it can get, and I expected it to reach millions. I think nowhere it has more than 1/1000 of it's population yet
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@sockpuppet7 For reference, the flu (using USA numbers but I assume they're within the same order of magnitude everywhere) usually infects about 10% of the population every year (excluding asymptomatic cases), with 2% of those (so 0.2% of the population) needing hospitalization and 10% of those (so 0.02% of the population) dying.
South Korea having only 139 deaths over 50M total people means it's been 100x less deadly than normal flu so far. Seems pretty crazy.
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@anonymous234 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@sockpuppet7 For reference, the flu (using USA numbers but I assume they're within the same order of magnitude everywhere) usually infects about 10% of the population every year (excluding asymptomatic cases), with 2% of those (so 0.2% of the population) needing hospitalization and 10% of those (so 0.02% of the population) dying.
South Korea having only 139 deaths over 50M total people means it's been 100x less deadly than normal flu so far. Seems pretty crazy.
The fatality rate of this disease is hugely influenced by whether you can be admitted to hospital when you need it. With proper breathing machine you can get it to as low as 1%, without that the fatality rate of those with severe symptom can be as high as 50%.
And AFAIK, most countries don't have enough machine to meet the estimated demand.
So it's important to not overrun the capacity of medical system.
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@anonymous234 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
South Korea having only 139 deaths over 50M total people means it's been 100x less deadly than normal flu so far. Seems pretty crazy.
That's a very dumb comparison, since the regular flu never caused any quarantine measures. You're comparing apples and salmiak.
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@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
If I understand anything I read this thing should infect everyone and be unstoppable, overload the health system and kill a 2 digit percent number of all humans
But then it started declining on SK, so I got something wrong, and I kind of would like to be able to predict if we're all gonna die or not
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@Polygeekery you rich guys should be buying your own ventilators by now. How much is one of these?
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
If I understand anything I read this thing should infect everyone and be unstoppable, overload the health system and kill a 2 digit percent number of all humans
But then it started declining on SK, so I got something wrong, and I kind of would like to be able to predict if we're all gonna die or not
A lot of early thoughts about it appear to be incorrect, which shouldn't surprise anyone. We're still learning. There are also different ways of slowing transmission and very different environments in which it's all happening.
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
If I understand anything I read this thing should infect everyone and be unstoppable, overload the health system and kill a 2 digit percent number of all humans
That's the "no effective countermeasures implemented and healthcare system collapses" scenario. Since SARS-CoV-2 spreads better than the flu, experts say that it has that potential.
But then it started declining on SK
Because they very thoroughly traced the contacts of infected people and implemented strict measures to keep the virus from spreading.
Also, do you have a source for "declining"? Last I heard, the number of infections was still rising there, as was the rate - they "only" managed to get the exponent of the exponential growth reasonably close to 1.
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
if we're all gonna die or not
of course not.
But if uncontained, will it spread like wildfire through your community, overwhelm your medical system, and kill those most vulnerable? Absolutely yes it will.
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@dfdub said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Also, do you have a source for "declining"?
Yes
South Korea COVID - Coronavirus Statistics - Worldometer
South Korea Coronavirus update with statistics and graphs: total and new cases, deaths per day, mortality and recovery rates, current active cases, recoveries, trends and timeline.
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@sockpuppet7 Nice to see that.
If the "effective" infection rate is reduced to below one, the active case will reduce as patients recovered + dead will be more than the new infected cases. Therefore even if there is no effective medication to directly kill the virus, the spread of virus will stop itself after all infected people are put into isolation.
When the infection is dropped to single digit, the challenge would be to continue finding all infected but asymptotic people out for at least 2 weeks. If they don't do so, and a new case is not discovered and allowed to freely walk around, the highly infective disease will spread again.
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
If I understand anything I read this thing should infect everyone and be unstoppable, overload the health system and kill a 2 digit percent number of all humans
I'm not sure that the fatality rate without hospitalization is as high as 10%. For one thing, nowhere is there testing of a random sampling of the population. Right now, people who are getting diagnosed are showing symptoms. There's reason to believe that the majority of the people who became infected do not become sick at all. With treatment of the vulnerable, the fatality rate could be as low as .1%. Even without treatment, it would still likely be substantially lower than 10%.
On another note, nowhere is the most essential question addressed seriously and sanely with the calculations presented: Is it more sensible to isolate the whole world, as we have been doing, or to put extra effort into isolating the vulnerable? We are expected to take the word of the unseen experts on it, and no calculations are presented. No one even asks the question.
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@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests? Etc.
We don't know anything about the virus, not really. Not the info we need. So everyone's jumping at shadows and over/under-reacting based mostly on computer models. And with all computer models, GIGO.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
We are expected to take the word of the unseen experts on it
I saw one.
'Anticipate international travel restrictions for quite some time', Covid-19 modelling expert warns
Even if New Zealand's lockdown proves successful Professor Shaun Hendy cautions the virus is "out of control overseas".
, and no calculations are presented.
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@Watson Looking at that front page, I see seven points, but nowhere is the one I asked. Do you have a page number where the question I asked is addressed clearly, specifically and with insight?
The title of the video does not seem to address the question, are you sure it's in there somewhere? Do you have a time in the video where he addresses the specific question with insight and clarity?
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@Benjamin-Hall said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests?
I'm going to repeat my question in the vain hope that someone somewhere has the neurons to grasp it. The above are important questions too, but without this question it's incomplete: Is it better to isolate the vulnerable (those likely to die from an infection), or to isolate the whole world?
Glossing over that question is just sad.
I'm reminded of when Rodney Dangerfield spoke about Two-Bag dates. These are when your date was so ugly, not only would she wear a bag over her head, but you'd wear a bag over your head in case hers breaks. We're currently following the two-bag strategy.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Benjamin-Hall said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests?
I'm going to repeat my question in the vain hope that someone somewhere has the neurons to grasp it. The above are important questions too, but without this question it's incomplete: Is it better to isolate the vulnerable (those likely to die from an infection), or to isolate the whole world?
Glossing over that question is just sad.
I totally agree (but wasn't clear). That was part of the
etcthing. Data is one thing (nice to have), but it doesn't tell you the rest of the story.
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@jinpa how do you intend to isolate them better? If the chances that the less vulnerable have it goes up, the chances that the person who feeds the vulnerable has it goes up.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
If I understand anything I read this thing should infect everyone and be unstoppable, overload the health system and kill a 2 digit percent number of all humans
I'm not sure that the fatality rate without hospitalization is as high as 10%. For one thing, nowhere is there testing of a random sampling of the population. Right now, people who are getting diagnosed are showing symptoms. There's reason to believe that the majority of the people who became infected do not become sick at all. With treatment of the vulnerable, the fatality rate could be as low as .1%. Even without treatment, it would still likely be substantially lower than 10%.
On another note, nowhere is the most essential question addressed seriously and sanely with the calculations presented: Is it more sensible to isolate the whole world, as we have been doing, or to put extra effort into isolating the vulnerable? We are expected to take the word of the unseen experts on it, and no calculations are presented. No one even asks the question.
It depends on what level of risk you want to take.
According to a medical direct of PMH here, they found a drop of 20% to 30% in lung capacity in some people who recovered from the disease, and lung scans suggested organ damage.
Since the government refuse to seal the border, and allow Chinese people to enter with self-quarantine only and no tracking device last week, the number of infection in Hong Kong has increased and today some of the hospital have their isolation ward reached 100% capacity.
F- the government.
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@Benjamin-Hall said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests? Etc.
We don't know anything about the virus, not really. Not the info we need. So everyone's jumping at shadows and over/under-reacting based mostly on computer models. And with all computer models, GIGO.
Seems Iceland will provide some very necessary numbers on that:
Everyone In Iceland Can Get Tested For The Coronavirus. Here's How The Results Could Help All Of Us.
The small island nation’s large-scale testing strategy includes people who don’t have any symptoms.
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Another probably stupid question: why is there such a wild disparity in severity between patients? Even in so-called low-risk demographics, some people are hit hard while others aren't sure they have it. Is there some genetic predisposition to it? Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
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@error I've heard there are two strains of the virus, one mild and one severe. But :who_nose: if that's true or not
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@hungrier said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@error I've heard there are two strains of the virus, one mild and one severe. But
if that's true or notCustom emoji thread is
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@error My (completely speculative) thought is that either
- There are multiple strains. But the sequencing evidence I've seen says otherwise--that this particular one doesn't actually mutate much
- lots of people already got it once (ie it's been circulating a lot longer than thought). This one has challenges as well.
- there's strong synergistic effects with other respiratory viruses (influenza, the cold, etc). If you just have one, it's not so bad. If you have 2 (both COVID-19 and influenza), or have recently recovered from having influenza, the combined whammy is enough to blow you up. This one I haven't heard anything about from anyone else. It's probably very flawed.
That last case would have some real strong good news--even if (unknown) COVID-19 has no seasonal variability, influenza and the cold do. So we'd see a drop in lethality as their seasons end and most people switch back to the "only getting one" bucket.
Of course, that same effect (the seasonality of other respiratory infections) should also modulate the overall strain on the health-care system even if there is no synergy. Because the number of people who go to the hospital for the flu isn't zero. After all, the flu kills lots of people each year, most of whom don't just keel over without having been hospitalized first (although some do, certainly). As those seasons end, that frees up resources to handle COVID-19 cases. Dunno how big of an effect this has, though. Could be in the noise. But it's certainly a negative modulation, unless somehow getting the flu protects you from getting COVID-19.
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@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Another probably stupid question: why is there such a wild disparity in severity between patients? Even in so-called low-risk demographics, some people are hit hard while others aren't sure they have it. Is there some genetic predisposition to it? Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
There was someone medically inclined that spoke about that a high extended exposure to the virus seems to worsen the infection when you catch it. No idea if it's correct.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Right now, people who are getting diagnosed are showing symptoms. There's reason to believe that the majority of the people who became infected do not become sick at all. With treatment of the vulnerable, the fatality rate could be as low as .1%. Even without treatment, it would still likely be substantially lower than 10%.
Before we get too far into "wishful thinking" territory: The overwhelming majority of tests still come back negative, so while we don't know the true number of active cases, at least the order of magnitude is most likely correct.
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@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Another probably stupid question: why is there such a wild disparity in severity between patients? Even in so-called low-risk demographics, some people are hit hard while others aren't sure they have it. Is there some genetic predisposition to it? Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
This afternoon I heard some doctor talk about how "younger" (40 or less) patients might actually get an over-reaction of the immune system which then triggers damage to all kinds of organs. He also said that while they can somewhat recognize it when it happens, they can't really predict it and yet he claimed it must have something to do with genetics.
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@hungrier said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@error Someone (I think @Zecc?) had a good one a while ago, but I dunno if he submitted it or not
It was I, but I've not submitted and I can't seem to find it now.
I thought had had bookmarked it, but apparently not.
I'm not sure if it would have worked at emoji size, to be honest.I'll go look for it.
Update: found it
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@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
Yeah, that's not right. For one thing, there are four basic classifications of influenza: A, B, C, and D. Each of those has further sub-classes and lineages. Immunity to one specific strain does not necessarily give you immunity to other strains, especially if they are from two different classes. Plus, influence mutates relatively rapidly in ways that alter the surface antigens that your immune system uses to determine how to fight a virus. These issues (and probably others) combine to make reinfection with influenza highly likely from year to year.
The main difference in the spread of influenza and COVID-19 is the infectious period. According to the CDC, most healthy adults spread influenza starting about a day before symptoms develop and up to a week after recovery. COVID-19, however, is contagious a week or more before symptoms start and at typically 8 days after recovery.
And it also helps that there is a flu vaccine each year. There's no vaccine for COVID-19.
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@JBert said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
This afternoon I heard some doctor talk about how "younger" (40 or less) patients might actually get an over-reaction of the immune system which then triggers damage to all kinds of organs. He also said that while they can somewhat recognize it when it happens, they can't really predict it and yet he claimed it must have something to do with genetics.
From what I read, that's the same reason why the Spanish Flu had a higher lethality for younger (i.e. below 40 years) people.
@abarker said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
And it also helps that there is a flu vaccine each year. There's no vaccine for COVID-19.
With said vaccine being an educated guess. Sometimes we're guessing wrong.
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@Rhywden said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
With said vaccine being an educated guess. Sometimes we're guessing wrong.
True, but some years they guess right, which helps to keep the average infection rate down.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it better to isolate the vulnerable (those likely to die from an infection), or to isolate the whole world?
First, isolating the whole world would include isolating the vulnerable as a consequence. Secondd, when you don't know who "the vulnerable" are, and/or when "the vulnerable" could be anyone as far as anyone can tell, the two scenarios become equivalent.
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@Watson said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it better to isolate just the vulnerable (those likely to die from an infection), or to isolate the whole world?
First, isolating the whole world would include isolating the vulnerable as a consequence.
Added a word for clarity that I assumed was implied.
Secondd, when you don't know who "the vulnerable" are, and/or when "the vulnerable" could be anyone as far as anyone can tell, the two scenarios become equivalent.
Yes. That is not the case here, however.
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@abarker said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@sockpuppet7 said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@anonymous234 I guess a new mutation of the flu wouldn't get past most people immunity (wild uninformed speculation here)
Yeah, that's not right. For one thing, there are four basic classifications of influenza: A, B, C, and D. Each of those has further sub-classes and lineages. Immunity to one specific strain does not necessarily give you immunity to other strains, especially if they are from two different classes. Plus, influence mutates relatively rapidly in ways that alter the surface antigens that your immune system uses to determine how to fight a virus. These issues (and probably others) combine to make reinfection with influenza highly likely from year to year.
The main difference in the spread of influenza and COVID-19 is the infectious period. According to the CDC, most healthy adults spread influenza starting about a day before symptoms develop and up to a week after recovery. COVID-19, however, is contagious a week or more before symptoms start and at typically 8 days after recovery.
And it also helps that there is a flu vaccine each year. There's no vaccine for COVID-19.
Studies have shown the SARS-COV-2 will delay Type I IFN interferon production, which is essential for innate immunity, hence lead to loss of viral control in early phase of infection. This is the reason why COVID-19 the extended period of asymptotic incubation.
Flu don't sabotage your immune system directly.
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@jinpa said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Yes. That is not the case here, however.
Well, if you're aware of a segment of the population who are not at risk (the only one I can think of are: people who have already contracted and subsequently recovered, and that's assuming that the resulting antibodies are effective against future mutations) ... I mean, President Bolsonaro has identified "Brazilians" as not vulnerable, but I don't think that's based on any medical advice.
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@abarker said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Rhywden said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
With said vaccine being an educated guess. Sometimes we're guessing wrong.
True, but some years they guess right, which helps to keep the average infection rate down.
Most years even. My comment wasn't intended to cast doubt on the usefulness of the flu vaccine, should've made that clearer!
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@Carnage said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Benjamin-Hall said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests? Etc.
We don't know anything about the virus, not really. Not the info we need. So everyone's jumping at shadows and over/under-reacting based mostly on computer models. And with all computer models, GIGO.
Seems Iceland will provide some very necessary numbers on that:
The small island nation’s large-scale testing strategy includes people who don’t have any symptoms.
Don't forget Diamond Princess, whose on-board population was also fully tested.
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@acrow said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Carnage said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Benjamin-Hall said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@jinpa These are the key questions. Real infections > confirmed infections...but by how much? What about the false positive/false negative rates of the tests? Etc.
We don't know anything about the virus, not really. Not the info we need. So everyone's jumping at shadows and over/under-reacting based mostly on computer models. And with all computer models, GIGO.
Seems Iceland will provide some very necessary numbers on that:
The small island nation’s large-scale testing strategy includes people who don’t have any symptoms.
Don't forget Diamond Princess, whose on-board population was also fully tested.
And also Vò in italy
Virus Testing Experiment in Italian Town Appears to Have Halted COVID-19
According to researchers, authorities were able to prevent new infections with tough quarantine measures and strict testing on residents, whether they displayed symptoms or not.
Since the start of the outbreak, authorities have been testing and retesting each of the town's inhabitants. The tests were performed on people whether or not they were displaying symptoms of the disease. By some reports, between a half and three-quarters of carriers in Vò, were asymptomatic.
is an interresting bit they noted.
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@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Another probably stupid question: why is there such a wild disparity in severity between patients? Even in so-called low-risk demographics, some people are hit hard while others aren't sure they have it. Is there some genetic predisposition to it? Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
How about it all boils down to how fast the immune system jumps on it? We've been warned to not take ibuprofen (most common NSAID here) because it might make COVID-19 worse by delaying the immune response. Also, ingesting just 1 virus will give more time to react to it, since they replicate exponentially. Getting 2+ units will reduce your response window by one replication cycle time.
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@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
It's not just possible; pretty much all the actual data we have on the subject points to this being the case.
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@Mason_Wheeler said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
It's not just possible; pretty much all the actual data we have on the subject points to this being the case.
But the newspapers haven't figured out how to paint that as a catastrophe yet, so...
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@acrow said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Mason_Wheeler said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
It's not just possible; pretty much all the actual data we have on the subject points to this being the case.
But the newspapers haven't figured out how to paint that as a catastrophe yet, so...
"You may already be carrying the
shinglesCOVID-19 virus!"
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@acrow said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@Mason_Wheeler said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
@error said in how can this virus be declining on SK?:
Is it possible it's already much, much more widespread than we suspect, but with most people asymptomatic?
It's not just possible; pretty much all the actual data we have on the subject points to this being the case.
But the newspapers haven't figured out how to paint that as a catastrophe yet, so...
I'm getting mighty tired of all this bullcrap being flung at the news.
Seriously, you guys are just as bad.
But sure, let's shoot the messenger.
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@Rhywden I don't know about Germany, but around here the news reports only cite the Ministry of Whatever, WHO and AFP. No digging down to primary or even secondary sources. It's all third-hand. And all rather dumb. Even when, say, WHO gets it right, the main papers manage to water down the message.
At the same time, blogs held by more competent people give an analysis of the situation thorough enough to consistently predict the near-future.
Punchline:
We're not shooting the messenger. We're shooting the town fool pretending to be a messenger.
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@acrow Then maybe restrict your "critique" to Sweden.
And maybe it's your choice of newspapers which is the problem. Bubble and all that.
