Hello, I registered just to be able to give you an answer. I usually consider these web forums only as silly entertainment, but I thought this one deserves a real answer. I have been researching the issue for real, and can offer you the following:
Take a look at Synching or Sinking: Global Software Outsourcing Relationships. R Heeks, S Krishna, B Nicholson, S Sahay - IEEE SOFTWARE, 2001. It will answer your question quite well, because it gives you insight on why outsourcing may fail. You will also get some well thought of how to assess the chances. You can get the article from ACM's or IEEE's sites for free.