Scandals in Communist Frenchystan



  • Whoa.

    Melenchon has shaken up the polls over the past week by tapping into the frustration felt by many voters over lukewarm economic growth and high levels of unemployment.

    And do they see a 100% tax as helping that sort of thing?

    The possibility of Melenchon advancing to the second round, scheduled for May 7, has spooked investors.
    The difference in yields on French and German government bonds is now the largest it's been since February, suggesting that investors see French debt as a substantially riskier proposition than German bonds.
    Their worries will increase markedly if Le Pen, who has called for France to abandon the euro, were also to advance to the second round of voting.

    Yikes.



  • @boomzilla Yep. :sadface: :-( :cry:

    That guy looked at Venezuela 10 years ago, ignored all the bad side of it and thought they were onto something. Then he quickly forgot that France doesn't have huge oil deposits. And he also forgot to look at Venezuela since then.

    In any sane election (as much as any election is ever sane...), he would be dismissed as about as crazy as the other one who want to colonize Mars and the moon (which makes him the perfect... :sunglasses: lunatic).

    Oh, and the best thing about his proposed tax: the current president did propose a much weaker version of that tax (75% tax on income above 1M EUR), which was ruled unconstitutional and thus never went through. But Melenchon's solution to that is that he wants to rewrite the constitution anyway. So not only he has stupid ideas, but he also wants to break the safeguards in the system that actually prevent those ideas from becoming reality.

    As for the second round, I don't think Le Pen has any chance to win it. This has been hugely overplayed by foreign media, probably because it fits well the world narrative. But she has always built her party (and her father before her) as being "alone against the other" which means she never courted any alliance, never looked at compromises to attract other voters, and therefore always had trouble attracting more than her core base. That has always been profitable to her as a minority party (she could play the card of being ostracized by the other, even though it's mostly her own doing) but prevents her from becoming a majority party (which requires being able to weaken some of your ideas to gather a larger following).

    Still, a second round between her and Melenchon is unfortunately not out of the possible...


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    @boomzilla said in Scandals in Communist Frenchystan:

    And do they see a 100% tax as helping that sort of thing?

    I'm all for progressive taxation, but I think anyone with an ounce of sense would agree that's the wrong side of the Laffer curve...


  • Grade A Premium Asshole

    :laughing: :popcorn: #raveparty



  • @bugmenot So the results were exactly what everyone expected. Oh well.

    Hopefully the second round will go the same way.



  • @anonymous234 For once the polls were right... Maybe after a few failures they updated their polling strategies well enough? (in the 80's/90's, French pollsters regularly under-polled the National Front and it was a recurrent post-election debate... they manage to get more accurate numbers since about 10 years or so...)

    In any case, the second round is done and dusted. For one thing, the polls show (and have always shown) such a margin that even if they were wrong (which, given they were right for the first round, seems unlikely), they would have to be absolutely, totally wrong (it's about 65/35, so a 30 points lead!). Also, despite all the efforts from her leader, the National Front still is seen (rightly, in my opinion) as a racist and anti-semitic party with fascist tendencies (see her latest quip about a WW2 round-up of jews by French police not being the fault of France...). That makes her totally unpalatable for many voters, no matter how much they dislike her opponent. And finally, as I said in an earlier post, the whole FN's strategy since 30 years has been to show themselves as a party-not-like-the-others and that doesn't compromise with mainstream parties. As a result, she has herself cut (or prevented building) all bridges that could bring her more voters.

    So, yes she will attract some of the right's (Fillon) voters (about 1/3 apparently), and Macron will struggle to attract all of the left's voters (no more than 2/3 apparently), but that will still leave him very comfortably ahead of her.

    She probably doesn't mind that much. Whenever they got to power (in various local elections), the FN proved that they are no better than the others, that they don't have a consistent political line and that essentially they are just good to complain but not to do. So staying in the role of the poor outsider against whom everyone is leagued is a role that she knows very well, and will happily keep playing for the next 5 years... Whether people will keep following her is another question, but at this point I don't see any major change in that regard.


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