Every eighty years


  • Impossible Mission - B

    I'm aware that plenty of exceptions exist, but most people on here are from the USA. Here's a bit of history to ponder.

    The American Revolution began in the mid 1770s and extended into the early 1780s. Early on, Samuel Adams (John Adams's brother) said that it was imperative that the Continental Congress abolish slavery, or it would cause great trouble for the new nation a century later.

    Turns out Adams was an optimist, because we all know how that worked out. It blew up in everyone's face 80 years later, in the 1860s: the US Civil War.

    We made it through that in one piece (a decidedly better outcome than making it through in two pieces!) and life went on for the typical span of a human lifetime (about 80 years) before an attack on American soil by a foreign power, the first in decades, dragged us into World War II in the 1940s.

    You know what happened 80 years from that? Nope, because it hasn't happened yet. But the last of the WWII veterans are dying off, the 2020s are right around the corner, and just look at the state of our country, and the world around us in general...

    (Discuss. Please don't cause this to be moved over to the garage.)



  • I don't doubt for a minute that something destructive is going to come. Whether that's in the form of world war or civil war first I'm not sure. There's a lot of discourse within the US, and certainly throughout the world. What's most troubling, however, is the prior 80-year mark introduced a weapon capable of destroying civilizations, and with certain world leaders, it very well could be used.

    Here's a video to ponder:

    Is War Over? — A Paradox Explained – 05:46
    — Kurzgesagt – In a Nutshell

    It purports to suggest the trend of global-level conflicts is going to continue to decrease, but what we might be seeing instead is the calm before the storm. The US was in relative peace before the Civil War, and before Hitler marched into Poland, the western world was similarly peaceful. Had YouTube been around in those days, this video very well could have still been uploaded in 1850 (ignoring the Crimean War) and 1930.


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    I don't doubt for a minute that something destructive is going to come.

    The rising popularity of extreme nationalist movements worldwide is certainly troubling. I also don't like the fact that traditional media is slowly being replaced by social media filter bubbles. It almost seems like people with different political ideas are living in parallel universes nowadays; there is less and less common knowledge that can be used as a basis for discussion. Common ideals seem to be vanishing rapidly.



  • @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    I don't doubt for a minute that something destructive is going to come.

    It is already here:

    @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    There's a lot of discourse

    Filed under: :cd::horse_racing:


  • area_can

    @masonwheeler said in Every eighty years:

    But the last of the WWII veterans are dying off

    I don't think they'll be able to fight very well though



  • @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    and before Hitler marched into Poland, the western world was similarly peaceful.

    Except for the multiple civil wars, Polish-Soviet war, etc., you mean?



  • @coldandtired said in Every eighty years:

    @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    and before Hitler marched into Poland, the western world was similarly peaceful.

    Except for the multiple civil wars, Polish-Soviet war, etc., you mean?

    Or, you know, the other World War.

    These days we've just learned not to wage conflicts on our own soil.



  • @Maciejasjmj You know a war doesn't count unless the Americans win it!



  • "Every eighty years" has about as much validity as "every second version of Windows".

    Yeah, you can wedge history into a loose 80-year cycle if you ignore enough of it, but why would you do that?


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    I'm thinking that by the 2020s, Britain will have left the EU which subsequently collapses and the region turns into a war zone in general (the very thing a united Europe superstate project was about preventing) and historical alliances kick in to start WWIII.


  • area_can

    @Arantor said in Every eighty years:

    I'm thinking that by the 2020s, Britain will have left the EU which subsequently collapses and the region turns into a war zone in general (the very thing a united Europe superstate project was about preventing) and historical alliances kick in to start WWIII.

    except this time, the battleground will be...cyberspace


  • :belt_onion:

    @Arantor said in Every eighty years:

    WWIII

    Fortunately, either it wont start, or it will end very soon in a :mushroom: :cloud:
    Most likely there will be a cyber war with big powers first hitting each other's critical institutions and infrastructures :thinking:


  • area_deu

    @Arantor I heavily doubt it. Even if the EU collapses, which I don't think it will or at least won't without being replaced by the core members by a new one with blackjack and hookers immediately. I am infinitely more worried about Russia. If there is one thing that threatens Europe, its russia, and its not even because of their capability to wage war. Independant experts did a study and determined that neither could current russia ever sustain a war of agression even in total war mode, nor could the EU countries decidedly beat Russia without entering total war mode themselves, which could either be an economic miracle or lead to China overtaking the West so hard by fueling the war that they will dominate the world, which is neither a good thing for the surpressed chinese population nor for the rest of the world.

    But all that is without taking nuclear weapons into account. And Putin would use them to get what he wants. The problem with nukes is that we would never ethically want to use them, and if we did, all civilication would end forever, but Putin knows that and HE WOULD use them to demonstrate power. So he can just go on waging his little informal wars and turn the entire russian border in Europe into a warzone like eastern ukraine.

    Why would the european countries wage war against each other? Litally why? That's like saying the US will invade Canada if NAFTA goes bust under Trump. I see literally no way in hell Portugal, Spain, France, Belgium, Netherlands, Luxemburg, Germany, Austria, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Italy, Switzerland, Czechia, Slovenia, Estonia, Livonia, Lithuania, Greece or Slovakia would ever wage war against one of the other again. The only possible conflicts would be Hungary or other instable balkan countires "reclaiming" century old "lost" "rightful" territory, Erdogan "reclaiming" eastern Greece by doubting current borders based on treaties over 90 years old like his party is doing right now while they dismantle the democracy, or, and this is allready pushing it REALLY hard, Poland starting shit if they continue their slow but not very subtle descent into autocracy, and I personally don't think the polish government is competent enaugh to continue its course without getting the people angry because they too changed nothing for the better.



  • @masonwheeler Most people don't bother with history over 20 years old. That's why.

    If anyone would have paid attention in history class, they'd realize how oddly familiar the world is to right before WWI.


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    @dse Every time I see your current Avatar I think of an anus. Not sure why....

    (For when said avatar changes:)

    0_1478404079120_upload-d80c165d-04ef-422c-9264-d980badbdf73



  • @dse said in Every eighty years:

    Fortunately, either it wont start, or it will end very soon in a :mushroom: :cloud:

    That's a win.

    These guys are the problem
    :hammer:
    :hammer: :turtle:


  • :belt_onion:

    @Tsaukpaetra said in Every eighty years:

    @dse Every time I see your current Avatar I think of an anus. Not sure why....

    (For when said avatar changes:)

    0_1478404079120_upload-d80c165d-04ef-422c-9264-d980badbdf73

    This is a better resolution just for goggling the ass!

    0_1478406615034_goat.png

    Well technically speaking an ass and a goat are from the the same branch of the phylogenetic tree, so you are not far off.

    http://ijas.pagepress.org/index.php/ijas/article/viewFile/2500/html/15678


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    @dse said in Every eighty years:

    goggling the ass!

    I was referring to goatse.cx .

    (Edit: Or whatever it was)


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    @Tsaukpaetra said in Every eighty years:

    Every time I see your current Avatar I think of an anus

    Possibly coincidence; do you often think of anuses?


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    @error said in Every eighty years:

    @Tsaukpaetra said in Every eighty years:

    Every time I see your current Avatar I think of an anus

    Possibly coincidence; do you often think of anuses?

    Not mostly. In the extreme recent history however, yes. Especially since eating.

    Wait...



  • @Quwertzuiopp said in Every eighty years:

    or, and this is allready pushing it REALLY hard, Poland starting shit if they continue their slow but not very subtle descent into autocracy

    Oh, no. We might get into the Middle Eastern mess, maybe go against Russia if our diplomacy really screws up.

    With Europe, we'll just do what we always do - pout our lips, act offended and mutter under our breath how "one day we'll show them all".



  • @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    The US was in relative peace before the Civil War, and before Hitler marched into Poland, the western world was similarly peaceful.

    Between 1865 and 1939? Sure, if you discount, say, the various wars of the 1860s–70s, the Frist World War, various minor civil and international wars following that in central Europe, the Spanish Civil War, and probably some more I missed by doing this off the top of my head. In that period, “the western world” (that is, not counting eastern and southern Europe) was pretty much peaceful only between 1871 and 1914, and did most of their fighting at the time in Africa and Asia.

    @asdf said in Every eighty years:

    It almost seems like people with different political ideas are living in parallel universes nowadays; there is less and less common knowledge that can be used as a basis for discussion. Common ideals seem to be vanishing rapidly.

    The funny thing is that it used to be that way in the past too, certainly around where I live. Until the 1960s, protestants, catholics, and socialists pretty much lived in separate worlds: newspapers, trade unions, radio and TV broadcasters, sports and leisure clubs — you name it, they all came in those flavours and people just didn’t read/join/view/use one that didn’t fit their own world view.

    @Arantor said in Every eighty years:

    by the 2020s, Britain will have left the EU

    Not at the rate it’s currently going.



  • @Gurth said in Every eighty years:

    In that period, “the western world” (that is, not counting eastern and southern Europe) was pretty much peaceful only between 1871 and 1914, and did most of their fighting at the time in Africa and Asia.

    Indeed. They did their fighting elsewhere, but, crucially, still against one another. Pretty good breakdown here:



  • @coldandtired @Gurth in talking more about the years immediately before WWII and the civil war. Certainly WWI and other major conflicts shouldn't be forgotten (and clearly the same holds true for this last 80 year period, as the video i linked touches on).

    My point is you can't take a trend as complex as global peace and assume it will continue that way forever. I think humanity has always considered war to be a last resort, but that only means we are all collectively saying "serenity now" ala Frank Costanza until we reach "insanity later." It's certainly what happened in the years leading up to many wars. The US civil war came after many years of underlying tension, as did WWI, WWII, and Korea. All it takes is a catalyst bring the house of cards down.

    And I see that happening now. The world powers are in relative peace in that they aren't firing missiles each other but contrary to what the "is war over?" contends, there is a growing tension between them, and it's only a matter of time before it bubbles over.



  • @The_Quiet_One I was referring to the interwar period. The Spanish Civil War ended in 1939, for example.



  • @coldandtired okay, but that's still a decline from prior years where we had WWI, and other "bigger" wars between world powers and multiple wars happening at once.

    Today we have conflicts, too, but they are still less than wars in prior decades, such as Vietnam, where world powers were head-to-head (Vietnam was effectively US vs USSR and China by proxy).

    However with what Russia is doing right now, the EU in somewhat of a more vulnerable place than before, China having the lion's share of economic power, and the US being bipolar over being interventionist vs isolationist, things are coming together for something to ignite.



  • @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    Certainly WWI and other major conflicts shouldn't be forgotten (and clearly the same holds true for this last 80 year period, as the video i linked touches on).

    The thing is, this “80 years period” is a fantasy by looking selectively — at the USA, to be precise — and noticing patterns where probably none exist. The rest of the world doesn’t follow that cycle, and I’m not sure that after three approximate occurrences you can already say that there’s some kind of 80-year cycle that’s destined to repeat itself.

    My point is you can't take a trend as complex as global peace and assume it will continue that way forever.

    Definitely true. But my point is that you can’t really simplify that kind of subject either and then draw useful conclusions about the future from it.

    The US civil war came after many years of underlying tension, as did WWI, WWII, and Korea. All it takes is a catalyst bring the house of cards down.

    Well, yes. Few wars begin because somebody in power wakes up one morning and says, “You know, let’s start a war today with a country I’ll pick by throwing a dart at a map.” Nor because it’s been circa n years since the last one.

    And I see that happening now. The world powers are in relative peace in that they aren't firing missiles each other but contrary to what the "is war over?" contends, there is a growing tension between them, and it's only a matter of time before it bubbles over.

    Probably. Or perhaps I should say: almost certainly. Hopefully it’ll take long enough for me to be dead and buried before it begins.



  • @Gurth said in Every eighty years:

    @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    Certainly WWI and other major conflicts shouldn't be forgotten (and clearly the same holds true for this last 80 year period, as the video i linked touches on).

    The thing is, this “80 years period” is a fantasy by looking selectively — at the USA, to be precise — and noticing patterns where probably none exist. The rest of the world doesn’t follow that cycle, and I’m not sure that after three approximate occurrences you can already say that there’s some kind of 80-year cycle that’s destined to repeat itself.

    Don't argue with me on that. Argue with the OP. I agree the 80-years thing is false, although I do think conflicts often come in ebbs and flows, at least when you look at world powers and individual countries' civil wars.

    And I see that happening now. The world powers are in relative peace in that they aren't firing missiles each other but contrary to what the "is war over?" contends, there is a growing tension between them, and it's only a matter of time before it bubbles over.

    Probably. Or perhaps I should say: almost certainly. Hopefully it’ll take long enough for me to be dead and buried before it begins.

    Then I suggest you start smoking now if you haven't already. It's going to happen sooner than a lot of people might think.


  • mod

    @Gurth said in Every eighty years:

    Nor because it’s been circa n years since the last one.

    No, but I think there is some truth to the cycle. Not so much that 80 years is some magic number, but if you have not experienced a war, and your parents haven't, and your grandparents haven't, but your great-grandparents who you never met were war heroes, it's harder to keep in mind the idea that war is a last resort. Over time, the lessons fade, and people get greedy. You know?


  • Impossible Mission - B

    @Yamikuronue I guess I didn't make the point very clearly in my post, but that's exactly why it's a "magic number:" 80 years is a good first-order approximation for a standard human lifespan.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    Fourth Turning.


  • Dupa

    @asdf said in Every eighty years:

    @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    I don't doubt for a minute that something destructive is going to come.

    The rising popularity of extreme nationalist movements worldwide is certainly troubling. I also don't like the fact that traditional media is slowly being replaced by social media filter bubbles. It almost seems like people with different political ideas are living in parallel universes nowadays; there is less and less common knowledge that can be used as a basis for discussion. Common ideals seem to be vanishing rapidly.

    But it's all because of the American civil war 160 years ago!

    I call bullshit on this one, @masonwheeler, cherry picking facts to fit such a dumb idea is well… dumb.


  • Dupa

    @masonwheeler said in Every eighty years:

    @Yamikuronue I guess I didn't make the point very clearly in my post, but that's exactly why it's a "magic number:" 80 years is a good first-order approximation for a standard human lifespan.

    Sure, so the US was doing good cause it's citizens remembered the civil war, but then they forgot about it and so Japan attacked them?

    I don't really see your point. WWII was raging and USA got dragged in because it was attacked, not because someone forgot that war's a horrible thing.

    While there is something to what @Yamikuronue's said, there's much more to terrible things happening than remembering the last war and don't forget that there are at least two sides to a war and each of them might have raged the last war in a different time.

    So it is an utter bullshit.


  • mod

    @kt_ said in Every eighty years:

    the US was doing good cause it's citizens remembered the civil war, but then they forgot about it and so Japan attacked them?

    Nah, more like, we didn't want to enter WWII because we still remembered WWI, until we got dragged in and were forced to join. During WWI, the South was mostly against entering the war, and they were hit hardest by the civil war if I remember my history class right.



  • @Yamikuronue So Japan never attacked.

    And you never put American Citizens if Japanese descent into camps. Denying them of the rights.


  • mod

    @lucas1 Did you... read my post at all?

    I'd like to note that only the first line was there when I replied.





  • @Yamikuronue said in Every eighty years:

    I'd like to note that only the first line was there when I replied.

    Does that really change anything?


  • mod

    @lucas1 yeah: it looked like you were replying to literally none of my words whatsoever. Now it just looks like you're being reductive. Of course we did horrible things. Everyone knows that. Does that change anything I said about people's attitudes and reluctance to join the war itself?


  • :belt_onion:

    Instead of every eighty years, it used to be every twenty years.

    William Henry Harrison was elected president in 1840 and died of pneumonia one month after taking office. From that point on, every twenty years, the president who was elected that year would die in office.

    Abraham Lincoln - elected 1860, assassinated
    James Garfield - elected 1880, assassinated
    William McKinley - elected 1900, assassinated
    Warren Harding - elected 1920, died of cerebral hemorrhage
    Franklin Roosevelt - elected 1940, died from a stroke
    John Kennedy - elected 1960, assassinated
    Ronald Reagan - elected 1980, broke the cycle by being shot but not dying.

    Hopefully we will get back on track in 2020.



  • @Yamikuronue Of course it does.


  • mod

    @lucas1 Ok then. I suppose you're the most trustworthy source in existence, so I'll believe your bald-faced assertion. My eyes are opened! I now understand everything!



  • @Yamikuronue Did the USA fire bomb Tokyo that was in 1945 know as a "paper" city?

    YES IT DID. Are you going to apologize to the Japs?

    If not I am going to say racist to reasons.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @lucas1 ....Are you sure you're in the right thread? What does that have to do with the topic?


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    @Erufael said in Every eighty years:

    What does that have to do with the topic?

    I think he expects that apologizing is an important aspect of circular events. Maybe. Hard to tell.


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    @lucas1 said in Every eighty years:

    @Arantor You called me racist quite a few times.

    Once, in the Brexit thread, for which I subsequently apologised.



  • @lucas1 said in Every eighty years:

    @Yamikuronue Did the USA fire bomb Tokyo that was in 1945 know as a "paper" city?

    YES IT DID. Are you going to apologize to the Japs?

    If not I am going to say racist to reasons.

    Why would we apologize for our public services in WWII?



  • @Erufael said in Every eighty years:

    What does that have to do with the topic?

    Not much. @lucas1 thinks he's a troll.



  • @The_Quiet_One said in Every eighty years:

    Don't argue with me on that. Argue with the OP.

    I’m arguing it in general, not specifically with you — it’s just that I replied to your post, which probably gives that impression, though.

    Then I suggest you start smoking now if you haven't already. It's going to happen sooner than a lot of people might think.

    But I prefer all my fingers to be the same colour!

    @Yamikuronue said in Every eighty years:

    @Gurth said in Every eighty years:
    No, but I think there is some truth to the cycle. Not so much that 80 years is some magic number, but if you have not experienced a war, and your parents haven't, and your grandparents haven't, but your great-grandparents who you never met were war heroes, it's harder to keep in mind the idea that war is a last resort.

    In that case I should be safe, given that I distinctly remember my grandfather telling about carrying a man who had his arm half shot off and later being held as a prisoner of war in Germany in 1940. I may not need to take up smoking yet.

    But yes, I agree that forgetting history is a bad idea, and that people do tend to do just that.



  • @flabdablet said in Every eighty years:

    @lucas1 thinks he's a troll.

    Slow and not very bright? Sounds about right.


Log in to reply
 

Looks like your connection to What the Daily WTF? was lost, please wait while we try to reconnect.