Thread now trash, don't waste your time - Invest in Canada jokes, a growing commodity!



  • Anybody got any?

    Looking at my investment accounts for 2016, I think I need to diversify out of tech somewhat.

    Looking for companies with:

    • Relatively reliable growth
    • Easily understood business or at least easily understood "where do these guys get their money" (no Enrons, basically)
    • Decent sway with a $5000 or so investment

    Those oilfields in the midwest are doing great, but the price of crude is down so far I'm worried about that aspect of their business-- I wonder if anybody has any estimations of when the price of crude will bottom-out? (And no I'm not investing in commodities, but possibly companies that run oil refineries.)

    Open to all other possibilities. What do you guys invest in (other than tech?) How do you do, generally?



  • @blakeyrat said:

    I wonder if anybody has any estimations of when the price of crude will bottom-out?

    Depends on how long the Saudis will (or can) sustain the price level they're setting.


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    I have a relative that works in an industry that supplies oil refineries (tool maker), and their business has been very bad for the past 6 months, with no sign of improvement on the horizon. I would personally be very leery of investing in oil companies that are involved in the shale / fracking oil fields, as those wells are only going to be marginally operationally profitable at best on the current pricing, and certainly not enough to cover the original investment plus financing costs. Seems far more likely to me that those firms will become zeroes, especially if interest rates rise.

    FWIW, IANAIA, YMMV, HTH, etc.



  • @blakeyrat said:

    Those oilfields in the midwest are doing great, but the price of crude is down so far I'm worried about that aspect of their business--

    Petrobras was ruined by corruption for example, be careful when investing in shitty countries's companies.



  • The Saudis are doing it in an attempt to choke the North American producers out of business. Since the NA market isn't profitable unless the crude price is above some specific level I don't know off the top of my head.

    EDIT:

    @izzion said:

    I would personally be very leery of investing in oil companies that are involved in the shale / fracking oil fields, as those wells are only going to be marginally operationally profitable at best on the current pricing, and certainly not enough to cover the original investment plus financing costs. Seems far more likely to me that those firms will become zeroes, especially if interest rates rise.

    Yah what izzion said.


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    What I've seen here and there on business sites (sorry, no sourcing available off the top of my head) suggests that "operationally", existing wells are profitable (barely) at the current $40/bbl range. Which implies NA producers are just as well off to keep producing in the current climate, which is preventing a large supply drop that would increase prices. OTOH, when you account for exploration & financing costs, wells that don't pan out, regulatory costs involved in doing new exploration, etc... exploring new wells isn't profitable unless the price is more in the $100/bbl range.

    Plus, there are differences in grade of oil, with impacts in refining cost and tooling / setup required to process it, so even though the price of NA shale oil will be impacted by the production (and price) of Saudi oil, the two types aren't a perfect substitute for each other in the short term (until refineries can switch over to the other oil type, or blend multiple types together).

    All in all, a really complicated market. Makes me glad I work in something simple like IT :P



  • @blakeyrat said:

    What do you guys invest in (other than tech?) How do you do, generally?

    S&P 500 index fund, and great. Why on earth would you pick stocks/etc unless it's your job?



  • I already have the bulk of my money in indexes.

    That's not what I asked.

    If you're not interested in answering the question, and you came in here just to call me an idiot, please fuck off.



  • @blakeyrat said:

    and you came in here just to call me an idiot

    Clearly, because I totally said or implied that ever. :wtf:


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    Honestly, WtfCorp isn't a bad long term bet historically. Very diversified business. If any one part crashes and burns the enterprise as a whole will live on. I'd wait until late in the year in case the spinoff goes as poorly as I anticipate, but in the process we'll be dumping a lot of legacy assets in dying lines of business.

    Since you're not in the lounge, I can PM you the identity info if you're interested.



  • Dude. You want me to give money to the shitty idiots who employ you?


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    Despite all the :doing_it_wrong: that those guys do, it's a pretty solid investment. Particularly if this reorganization/spinoff thing goes off roughly as I expect: Catastrophe, major stock price hit by panicked investors, followed by a return to business-as-usual-or-better over the next 12-24 months. It's a "buy low" you can put on your calendar!


  • I survived the hour long Uno hand

    Aaand now he can't buy the stock, because that paragraph is textbook insider trading.



  • I wasn't gonna ask for the company name anyway. ;)


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    All my opinions are based on the public shareholder calls and comparison to other similarly structured companies that have done the same boneheaded thing.

    IOW, they don't tell me shit.

    Of course, I suppose there's no way for you to know that.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @blakeyrat said:

    The Saudis are doing it in an attempt to choke the North American producers out of business

    This will not work long-term. All that will happen is they'll close excess wells. When prices go back up, those wells will restart.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @rc4 said:

    Clearly, because I totally said or implied that ever.

    Blakey thinks, or at least acts like, anyone disagreeing with him is stupid, because that's what he feels disagreement with him is.



  • Au contraire. buying Petrobras is a good move, because it's really low right now, and eventually it will return to its median. but this isn't relevant because i doubt blakeyrat would invest in a non-usian company



  • I wouldn't risk that. I know people that bought NET Cable stock with this same line of thinking, in the middle of it's 100 to 0,80 fall. It never recovered.



  • is not the same thing. one is a cable company. the other is a national company. Petrobras is not going bankrupt. it's like YPF, it was down for a while, but then returned to its median value.



  • Hm. They're on NYSE. It's an interesting idea.

    52-week high: $10.44, current price: $4.30



  • Fuck you. Give me the money.

    I can 100% guarantee what your returns will be.



  • It's worth looking at the legal actions that are running against them too.



  • @Jarry said:

    but this isn't relevant because i doubt blakeyrat would invest in a non-usian company

    I agree generally with @rc4, but I can tell you that all the retirement diversification stuff recommends a mixture of domestic and international funds. And I know that blakey is still at a point in life where he should be taking on a fair amount of risk.

    But then this thread doesn't seem like a call for retirement plan ideas.



  • i should say that i'm no expert on this, as @fbmac said, take a look at the current status of the company before. but, that's what i would do if i were to invest...


  • Winner of the 2016 Presidential Election

    Depends on the timeframe. Oil prices aren't gonna bounce back up this year with the way the US and OPEC are acting and in light of the general economy. A lot of the smaller oil companies have started to struggle with liquidity. Petrobras is big enough to not be in any danger here - but unless you have some money you really don't care about there are safer things to do than wait for the boom that will follow this bust at some point.



  • Buy some LEGO™

    Average Lego set has increased in value 12 per cent each year since the turn of the Millennium, providing a better return than mainstream investments



  • I said no commodities.



  • Ok, then give me 100.000€ and I'll buy some LEGO™ and in 10 years I'll return a 6-8% profit.

    Give me some time to "print" my LEGO™ participation.



  • VFIFX

    Body is invalid; try to be a little more descriptive.

    But really, no idea. I don't do stock picking. SpaceX is looking interesting with the successful landing. The only single stocks I own are for my company, and that's only because I get free shares if I do. (With stupid high sales fees and stupid German taxes.)



  • Professional Bull Riding? Pabst Blue Ribbon?

    Nope. A company whose initials are PB not PBR.



  • You're a moron.



  • This will not work long-term. All that will happen is they'll close excess wells. When prices go back up, those wells will restart.

    Um, yes, they'll close "excess wells" until they aren't making enough revenue to pay for their fixed operating costs and will shutter their companies. This has already happened to many publicly traded oil and gas companies in the last year, and another dozen are on the brink.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @Captain said:

    Um, yes, they'll close "excess wells" until they aren't making enough revenue to pay for their fixed operating costs and will shutter their companies. This has already happened to many publicly traded oil and gas companies in the last year, and another dozen are on the brink.

    And what do you suppose will happen if oil prices go back up to $80 a barrel or even more?

    That's right, many of those wells will reopen, possibly with new owners or whatever.



  • @JazzyJosh said:

    Professional Bull Riding? Pabst Blue Ribbon?

    Nope. A company whose initials are PB not PBR.

    You realize the stock symbols are just made-up? They're not acronyms or abbreviations.

    Most companies will pick an acronym or abbreviation to make their symbols more memorable, but some companies will pick whatever. It's just first-come, first-serve. Which is why older companies like Ford are just F.



  • @blakeyrat said:

    You realize the stock symbols are just made-up? They're not acronyms or abbreviations.

    :rolleyes: yes.


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    Right, but that doesn't help our theoretical hero who had invested in Super Awesome North Dakota Mining, Inc. When the banks come calling in late 2016 for that financing payment, and all the wells are still closed, the banks will get paid from selling the wells to MegaCorp International, and the shareholders of SANDMI will get nothing.



  • Yeah, "possibly with new owners" who know that they will be bankrupted the moment Saudi Arabia decides they should be.



  • That's cool. Presumably they knew the risk involved. So long as the end result is that we keep civilization going with inexpensive energy, I'm cool with it.



  • Sure, I'm not saying it's impossible that the wells will open again. It's just very unlikely that prices will rise to the point where they are worth opening until Saudi Arabia achieves its political objective, because Saudi Arabia's massive inventory is essentially a long-term American style real put option on oil.

    By that token, the American wells are a American style real call options on oil.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @izzion said:

    Right, but that doesn't help our theoretical hero who had invested in Super Awesome North Dakota Mining, Inc. When the banks come calling in late 2016 for that financing payment, and all the wells are still closed, the banks will get paid from selling the wells to MegaCorp International, and the shareholders of SANDMI will get nothing.

    I'm not disagreeing. But that's orthogonal to what I was saying.

    Yes, some companies will go out of business, and that sucks for them. But if the Saudis think they'll kill off the modern US oil industry they will find they are sadly mistaken.


  • Discourse touched me in a no-no place

    @Captain said:

    Yeah, "possibly with new owners" who know that they will be bankrupted the moment Saudi Arabia decides they should be.

    The Saudis cannot keep prices low enough forever. You do understand this, right?

    Not a one of you has yet actually contested my position, just said things that, while true, don't invalidate it.



  • Buy some Blackberry stock. It's ass-raped cheap now. And it's one of those companies that will refuse to die, and will eventually have a stock-spike again-- even if they never actually create anything new for the rest of their existence. At the very least, at some point, someone will buy them for the name and you'll make a nice profit.

    I mean look at that trend. It's gotta spike at some point:



  • OR since the :maple_leaf::fa_dollar: is at an all-time low vs. the :us::fa_dollar:, buy a shitload of that. Your next president will probably fuck up the economy somehow and tank your dollar in the short term. The dollars will be on or near par, and you can cash in for a nice 20%-30% profit.

    As an added bonus, if you buy all your currency in loonies, you'll have a literal pile of goldgold-looking coins that you can keep in a treasure chest like a fucking pirate or ren-faire "person" or something.



  • My sister did something similar when Ireland changed from punt to euro. The punt was tanking against the pound so she transfered her English savings to her Irish account. The euro rallied for a while a couple years later and she transfered back making a cool 15% roi for about £40 in banking fees.

    Maybe not cool but a nice chunk of change.



  • I didn't know the Irish currency used to be called the punt :laughing:


  • Impossible Mission Players - A

    I assumed he @accalia'd the pint.



  • No its actually real. Irish for pound. Because we're Irish and not retarded.



  • @DogsB said:

    No its actually real

    Whoosh?

    @DogsB said:

    Irish and not retarded.

    DOES NOT COMPUTE



  • Two whooshes in two posts. This is a great day!

    Can we whoosh an entire nation?


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