# The problem with randomness is you can never be sure

• I'm too terrible with probabilities to say what the odds of getting such a combination are, but I'm pretty sure they are low.

Is it 1 in 63 = 1 in 216? I thought it would be lower than that.

• Is it 1 in 63 = 1 in 216? I thought it would be lower than that.

It's 6^4, I think. 1 in ~1300.

• yes.
it's 6 posibilities per circle. 4 circles, so we can get 666*6 combinations

there's only 1 result we are interested. then P(all red) = 1/64

• `all yellow` would be exactly as interesting as `all red`, so we only care about 3 of the 4 colors.

• ah, yes. in that case

P(all the same color) = 6/64 = 1/63

• So 1/216.

If you play the game n times the probability of it happening is 1-(215/216)^n.

For 10 games, it's about 4.5%

For 100 games (or 10 people playing 10 games each), it's 37%

• So this isn't that rare. I feel like I've been cheated.

• @Zecc said:
Is it 1 in 63

I never said it's one in sixty-three! Disquotes! :shakesfist:

• Though, playing against an actual human, it would be much more rare than 1/216, because humans suck at randomness and naturally shy away from such "non-random" combinations when choosing the combination to play.

• It depends. If you mean getting four-of-the-same on a given try, then it's 1/216 or about ~0.5% (i guess?)

But if it's the odds of getting four-of-the-same at least once within 4 tries it's 1 - (215/216)^4 or almost 2% so less rare.

It didn't pop up on the first try.The longer you tried, the more likely it was to happen.

Now consider how long you've been playing this game. Let's say you've played a hundred rows. Using the above arithmetic, the odds of getting four in a row of the same color within 100 ties is about 37%. 150 times would increase the odds to about 50%.

So if you've played much more than 150 rows, you're actually unlucky because the odds became just as good as not of seeing this as not a while ago.

(i just assumed other's math was correct because i don't actually know what i'm talking about)

So 1/216.

If you play the game n times the probability of it happening is 1-(215/216)^n.

For 10 games, it's about 4.5%

For 100 games (or 10 people playing 10 games each), it's 37%

ninja'd by 14 hours

• We were mucking about with guids at a place I worked for uniqueness and as primary keys, well I was assigned it and for some reason I was limited to UUID. I don't know much about generating guids but I know that converting it to decimal and using only using the first 12 digits wasn't a good long term plan, i.e. there was a sixty thousand requests a day for the guid and I had just gutted most of its usefulness. I load tested it and fairly consistently between the 1.2 and 1.5 million mark I would get a collision. I pointed this out and was told to keep stum. Didn't happen in the brief time I was there but I sometimes wonder what they would do when the database shits the bed over trying to insert records with non-unique primary keys. I bet they just restarted and continued on. Probably fails every now and then for no apparent reason but works after a reboot.

Cunts! I'm probably a bigger cunt for letting something so obviously stuipid to stand.

• Cunts

@tufty, is that you?

• As far as I know no.

• and for some reason I was limited to UUID

Ewww....

• No.

• the odds of getting four in a row of the same color within 100 ties is about 37%

I noticed you @accalia'd there...

ninja'd by 14 hours

But much more comprehensive. Probability isn't my strong suit, so thank you.

• I noticed you @accalia'd there...

• It's the exact same probability as any other combination.

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