In other news today...
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@pjh said in In other news today...:
her
Wow, her face is quite different in six months. Prison changes you...
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@hungrier said in In other news today...:
It turns out even the OPP sometimes have to deal with wayward drones.
You down with OPP?
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@boomzilla
This can't be... it isn't in Florida. Oh dear god...They have gotten out.
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@tsaukpaetra said in In other news today...:
@pjh said in In other news today...:
her
Wow, her face is quite different in six months. Prison changes you...
Prison didn't do that to her. That's her photo from booking.
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@boomzilla said in In other news today...:
http://buffalonews.com/2017/07/25/car-ax-roof-no-doors-windshield-leads-driving-drugs-arrest
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@anotherusername In the other photo, she's visibly wearing makeup, but not in the booking photo.
Some women really don't need makeup. And then there's her.
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@masonwheeler said in In other news today...:
Some women really don't need makeup. And then there's
herdrug addicts.FTFY.
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@tsaukpaetra That was the joke.
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@tsaukpaetra said in In other news today...:
Wow, her face is quite different in six months. Prison changes you...
@pjh said in In other news today...:
Seems she's put on the years in the 6 months since her arrest..
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@boner said in In other news today...:
which smells like raw sewage and rotting bodies,
So it smells like their backyard. Shocker that they could tolerate it.
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@boner Sewage and rotting corpses? That's weak; there's flowers that smell like those!
Now, they might have something if they had combined all the cheap perfumes in the cosmetics aisle.
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@djls45 I one got in an elevator with a woman who smelled as if she had done just that. As I remarked later, it's a form of chemical warfare. Stuns the prey long enough for the cougar to pounce.
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@dragoon said in In other news today...:
@masonwheeler
Now if we can just get them to kill off PDFs.You would prefer XPSs?
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@boomzilla said in In other news today...:
@dragoon said in In other news today...:
I am in favor of it.
Every use of the p-value, except in the limited sense just mentioned, involves a fallacy. I prove—as in prove—this in this award-eligible book Uncertainty: The Soul of Modeling, Probability & Statistics . How embarrassing not to own a copy!
Also see this blog’s Book Page which has links to many articles on relevant topic.
The replacement
I have an upcoming JASA paper in discussion to Blakeley McShane and David Gal’s also upcoming “Statistical Significance and the Dichotomization of Evidence”, in which I outline the replacement for p-values. Academic publishing is lethargic, so look for this in August or even December.
Meanwhile, here are elements of a sketch of a condensation of an abbreviation of the outline. The full thing is in Uncertainty. I will answer below any new criticism that I have not already answered in Uncertainty—meaning, if I don’t answer you here, it means I already have in the book.
Smells more like "buy my book!" than "Hey, there's this better thing we could be doing". And the rest of it sounds unconvincing, and perhaps not entirely thought through. Which I'm sure was intentional, because they want you to buy their book.
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@dreikin yeah. His solution was "use a model. What model? I dunno, that depends. How? Figure it out." I agree that p-hacking is bad. He just didn't seem to present a solution.
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@benjamin-hall If I understood him correctly, he basically said that p-values are bad because they indicate that a phenomenon would occur with the calculated percentage rate anyways. The test criteria has that likelihood of being useless. His solution is to use a different calculation (that incorporates a bunch of different factors, including the specifics of the model used) to come up with a percentage rate that indicates how often the test criteria would produce the observed results.
IOW:
p-value = frequency event would occur without test criteria
new-value = frequency event would occur because of test criteria
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@boner said in In other news today...:
stink bomb known as the Skunk, which smells like raw sewage and rotting bodies, destined for employment in the restive region of Kashmir, was rejected after it was found that Indians easily ignored its smell
Any country whose standard spice-rack incorporates asafoetida as a seasoning should be removed from the list of those worth trying stench as a weapon.
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@dreikin said in In other news today...:
Smells more like "buy my book!" than "Hey, there's this better thing we could be doing". And the rest of it sounds unconvincing, and perhaps not entirely thought through. Which I'm sure was intentional, because they want you to buy their book.
He definitely wants you to buy his book (what author doesn't?). I don't follow the rest, but I guess he didn't go into a lot of detail there, which he's been writing about for years.
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@djls45 said in In other news today...:
@benjamin-hall If I understood him correctly, he basically said that p-values are bad because they indicate that a phenomenon would occur with the calculated percentage rate anyways. The test criteria has that likelihood of being useless. His solution is to use a different calculation (that incorporates a bunch of different factors, including the specifics of the model used) to come up with a percentage rate that indicates how often the test criteria would produce the observed results.
IOW:
p-value = frequency event would occur without test criteria
new-value = frequency event would occur because of test criteriaNo, see, you're doing exactly what he's talking about, which is misinterpreting what a p-value is.
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Not sure whether to put this in here or the Cute Things thread. It's kind of sad, in an adorable way:
https://www.yahoo.com/style/mom-just-got-most-guilt-124800126.html
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@raceprouk Oh, we have a third now?
(Boring isn't terribly far from here)
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@boomzilla said in In other news today...:
@djls45 said in In other news today...:
@benjamin-hall If I understood him correctly, he basically said that p-values are bad because they indicate that a phenomenon would occur with the calculated percentage rate anyways. The test criteria has that likelihood of being useless. His solution is to use a different calculation (that incorporates a bunch of different factors, including the specifics of the model used) to come up with a percentage rate that indicates how often the test criteria would produce the observed results.
IOW:
p-value = frequency event would occur without test criteria
new-value = frequency event would occur because of test criteriaNo, see, you're doing exactly what he's talking about, which is misinterpreting what a p-value is.
If I am misinterpreting it, it's because he didn't describe it well, because that's the understanding I got from his description.
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From last fortnight's PE... (Yet to start this fortnight's)
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Holy shit that's some serious rain.
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Well done Detroit.
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@dragoon Nice. That stunt would land his ass in jail over here immediately.
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@rhywden Eh?
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@dragoon said in In other news today...:
@rhywden Eh?
To me it seems to be a case of what in German law is called "Insolvenzverschleppung" (roughly translated as: declaring insolvency too late), which is either one of two things:
a) Not being able to pay your invoices and trying to hide it or
b) your debts exceeding your assets.Not declaring insolvency in time is a crime and will be punished by up to three years of jail. Also, the responsible persons (i.e. the C-level executives) are personally liable regardless of the company's legal structure.
Also, at least in Germany, in case of insolvency all the valuable assets are thrown into a big pot and then everyone who's owed money gets paid from that, based on a priority list. Wages are on top of that list, bankers and investors come after that.
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Probably to the surprise of exactly nobody:
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@rhywden I think this sums it all up nicely:
Sitting down to write this review, Lizzie says, “I don’t think I can say anything funny about this, because it makes me want to die.”
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@rhywden This film is currently at 3% on Rotten Tomatoes. It has improved to reach this position because the initial score it had was 0%, something unprecedented.
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@raceprouk said in In other news today...:
@rhywden I think this sums it all up nicely:
Sitting down to write this review, Lizzie says, “I don’t think I can say anything funny about this, because it makes me want to die.”
From the comments:
Last one is one of the authors.
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@rhywden Sounds like someone with friends with names like Ashley Jenny and Robert Doug.
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@rhywden said in In other news today...:
The Emoji Movie is so bad, it made us yell at strangers on the street
I want to see an entire review for this movie done with no letters, numbers or punctuation.
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@arantor said in In other news today...:
0%, something unprecedented.
Not quite, there have been and still are a bunch of 0% rated movies. The one with the most reviews (according to the handy list on Wikipedia) is Ballistic: Ecks vs Sever
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@hungrier Which has always been weird to me, as there are many far worse movies.
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@dragoon We're at war against plants
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@dragoon said in In other news today...:
Well done Detroit.
Teachers at the Michigan Technical Academy had contracts that required the school to pay them through the summer for work they did during the school year. But the school’s management company, Matchbook Learning, alerted teachers in an email Wednesday that the money would instead go to pay off the school’s debts.
The money owed to the teachers is debt.
IMO, which I don't think matches law in the US, non-executive employees should always have top priority. They're the only ones (probably) not doing it as investment/gambling and not in a position to know what's coming, and they're the least likely to be able to survive the sudden loss. I might be persuaded that debts owed to small businesses are on the same level for similar reasons, but that's about it.
@rhywden said in In other news today...:
@dragoon said in In other news today...:
@rhywden Eh?
To me it seems to be a case of what in German law is called "Insolvenzverschleppung" (roughly translated as: declaring insolvency too late), which is either one of two things:
a) Not being able to pay your invoices and trying to hide it or
b) your debts exceeding your assets.Not declaring insolvency in time is a crime and will be punished by up to three years of jail. Also, the responsible persons (i.e. the C-level executives) are personally liable regardless of the company's legal structure.
Also, at least in Germany, in case of insolvency all the valuable assets are thrown into a big pot and then everyone who's owed money gets paid from that, based on a priority list. Wages are on top of that list, bankers and investors come after that.
I like this. US law should be like that.
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@da-doctah said in In other news today...:
@rhywden said in In other news today...:
The Emoji Movie is so bad, it made us yell at strangers on the street
I want to see an entire review for this movie done with no letters, numbers or punctuation.
Paging @RaceProUK
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@rhywden said in In other news today...:
Also, at least in Germany, in case of insolvency all the valuable assets are thrown into a big pot and then everyone who's owed money gets paid from that, based on a priority list. Wages are on top of that list, bankers and investors come after that.
Where does the taxman come? In the UK, they're #1 on the list (and are often the people who seek the insolvency).
Where this really matters is with professional sports “clubs”, where there's been deep shenanigans in the past over paying some of their players. When there's a conspiracy between a company and some of their employees over very high pay (and the relevant level of tax owed on it), that makes a bit of a mockery of the principle of employees coming first.
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@anotherusername said in In other news today...:
@da-doctah said in In other news today...:
@rhywden said in In other news today...:
The Emoji Movie is so bad, it made us yell at strangers on the street
I want to see an entire review for this movie done with no letters, numbers or punctuation.
Paging @RaceProUK
That would mean watching it.
I don't wanna. You can't make me. So ner! 😛
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@dragoon said in In other news today...:
From the article:
And the field test used on the tea leaves turned out to have a 70 percent false positive rate.
Rolling a dice would probably be more accurate than this test.
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@rhywden said in In other news today...:
Rolling a dice would probably be more accurate than this test.
Depends on whether it is a D6 or a D20…
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@dkf said in In other news today...:
@rhywden said in In other news today...:
Rolling a dice would probably be more accurate than this test.
Depends on whether it is a D6 or a D20…
No, it depends on where you set the dividing line on the dice being used.