Not sure if WTF
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So, Greece's situation is... interesting.
And then this happens: http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/greeces-new-finance-minister-yanis-varoufakis-valves-former-steam-market-economist-1485336
I'm just.. what the...?
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Can he do a worse job than the previous one?
The Eurozone didn't need to bail out any DOTA 2 players.
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I'm not sure I could do a worse job than the previous one - and I'm hardly an economist (I did an A Level in the subject 13 years ago and got a C grade, and I still think I'd do a better job at it)
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I'm not sure I could do a worse job than the previous one
A tub of lard would have probably done a better job than the last guy
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Hey, Valve makes several metric buttloads of money every day from every product they own. If their economist is handling a country, it can only be good for them.
Coming soon: taxes are entirely optional, but you can get an EXCLUSIVE HAT if you pay them. Profit skyrockets.
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Coming soon: taxes are entirely optional, but you can get an EXCLUSIVE HAT if you pay them. Profit skyrockets.
But if you pay taxes you get trading cards and badges!
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Which you can trade in for gems!
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Yo dawg, I heard you like games
So we gamified the process of buying and playing games so you can game while you game
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Yeah, well, Valve has Steam and HL and DOTA. What does Greece have?
Hell, I can buy white brand Greek yogurt.
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Yeah, well, Valve has Steam and HL and DOTA. What does Greece have?
Hell, I can buy white brand Greek yogurt.
Not enough hats?
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A tub of lard would have probably done a better job than the last guy
But Roy Hattersley isn't available.
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Greece is too fucked for it to matter, I think. His group's idea (as I understand it) is basically to fuck over the people who were lending them money...and then go borrow a bunch more money. I guess the plan is to hope Germany blinks first.
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His group's idea (as I understand it) is basically to fuck over the people who were lending them money...and then go borrow a bunch more money.
Based on past actions it doesn't seem an unsafe bet.
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Based on past actions it doesn't seem an unsafe bet.
Yeah, since they've decided to stick with the Euro, I'm guessing the rest of the Euros will probably play along.
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..... has germany ever blinked?
They agreed to let Greece shine them on a few years ago.
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.... hmm.... they did that. yes.
forgot about that.
what are the odds they'll do it again?
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ah..... that bad then?
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ah..... that bad then?
As I understand it, the German people are pissed off about subsidizing poor decisions by the Greeks (and others). The Greeks are indignant that stuck up northerners are trying to tell them how to live.
The best news is that we've been subsidizing defense for all of them, so they probably couldn't cause much damage no matter what happens. Still, could make a lot of economic waves if someone doesn't blink and take it up the ass.
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.... I'll start the popcorn. this promises to be a hell of a show.
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.... I'll start the popcorn. this promises to be a hell of a show.
Yes, although it's been brewing for years. Though Syriza may be the final straw...
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hmm.... point. i'll make enough to share!
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The fun part is that even if we did agree to waving away their debt (from the money we lent them, that is) that it wouldn't change anything about their current position.
Because those debts begin to be due in 2020.
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But presumably they still make interest payments now, right?
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But presumably they still make interest payments now, right?
They've got a debt payment due in March I think. That's when the fun really starts…
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But presumably they still make interest payments now, right?
At a greatly reduced rate. The money they saved from such a move would amount to peanuts, really.
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Fair enough. The big problem post-default is that they'll expect to borrow more. I mean...they're planning on re-hiring tons of laid off govt employees, so I don't know what else their plan would be.
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The fun part is that even if we did agree to waving away their debt
What do you mean If? We already have once - well some of it - back in 2012:
Greek haircut underway
Greece officially launched a bond swap Friday, aiming to wipe 107 billion euros ($142 billion) off its 350-billion-euro debt bill. The debt writedown, also known as haircut, hits private investors hard.
Greek Debt Deal Will Force Bondholders To Take 'Voluntary' 70% Haircut
Greece is once again the center of discussion as the IIF negotiaties with the government of Lucas Papademos in order to avert a disorderly default, private bondholders could take up to 70% haricut and CDS should be sparked.
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Well, that was private debts. I was talking about the debts to other countries.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-2XVNFzNlZ8
Let's trim our hair in accordance with the socialist lifestyle!
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Juche a little off the top, today.
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The big problem post-default is that they'll expect to borrow more.
I really want to be a fly on the wall in the room where they ask the first banker.
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The only question is really the volume of the inevitable laughter.
"I'm sorry, you want to do what?"
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The only question is really the volume of the inevitable laughter
Well, there's also the expression on the various faces, including both the would-be lendee and the not-going-to-be lenders.
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How would either of these be a surprise?
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Hasn't the new Greek set been close with Russia? I could see Russia trying to buy some influence (possible veto power in the EU) with loans, though with the problems caused by low oil prices I dunno if they would be able to make the purchase.
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I've not followed it that closely but this wouldn't entirely surprise me.
Certainly the existing plan of borrowing isn't going to get them anywhere.
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Russia...low oil prices
Yeah, they are looking particularly fucked, too. I wonder how long this has to go on before they try something with Saudi Arabia (covertly, most likely).
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try something with Saudi Arabia
Don't know if that would even deal with it much. I mean they are the second biggest producer[1] but they don't have the strangle hold on total production they used to. You totally could get a jump in prices from mucking them up, but IIRC Russia had been talking about a worst case being $60/barrel and it is currently a bit over $40 (though that may be for a different kind than what they mostly export). Basically they need a big hike in price and I don't know how much of a change in supply would be needed to get it.
1 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_oil_production#Countries
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I dunno...I'm just basing that off the assumption (based on skimming news) that the current drop is due to the Saudis blowing through normal OPEC procedures and trying to ruin unconventional oil in the US.
EDIT: even if they can't disrupt production enough to really fuck up Saudi output, perceived instability could raise the price as people start hoarding in anticipation of more turmoil. Like, maybe Russia makes it look like ISIS has gone to work there or something.
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There's a saying that goes: if I borrow 100€ I have a problem. If I borrow 1M€ you have the problem.
The reality is that Greece is never going to pay its debt so they do whatever a person in this situation does, stop paying the mortgage and wait for the police to kick you out. Except in this case they'll be kicked out from the Euro and assimilated by Turkey.
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current drop is due to the Saudis blowing through normal OPEC procedures
My understanding is that it is only a part of that. Everyone was developing more production capacity, but with the time it takes to actually get to production those investments didn't start to payout for a while. So more production was developed than was needed and now it is people need to cut back for prices to rise, but the Saudis are looking at how much their share of the market has shrunk and said "fuck it" to shrinking production to boost price (as they've been loosing power to do that).
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The IS is already close to the Saudi border and their targets are Meca, Madinah and all the oil fields. Will they get past the border? Probably, since the Saudis aren't exactly beloved by other Muslim minorities that IS represents.
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I don't think they could. Saudis may not rule very liberally, but they have the country under control and most importantly they are the only NATO ally in the region. They'd most likely get military support if IS tried to attack.
Don't forget in NATO everybody is happy with what Saudis did. Europe has little own oil, so cheap oil is a nice boost to the stagnating economy and while in USA it means the projects for mining oil from slates have failed for now, cheap oil still outweighs couple of failed investments. And it reduces ability of Russia to cause trouble.
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The IS is already close to the Saudi border
I'm not sure how meaningful that is. There's a lot of empty up there, deserts with very little water that it's pretty easy for a military to lock down.
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ISIS ‘Attack Saudi Border Post and Infiltrate Town’
Dozens of Islamic State (ISIS) fighters have infiltrated a Saudi Arabian border town via Iraq before melting away into the general population, according to claims by the terror group’s supporters on social media.
ISIS 'Attack Saudi Border Post and Infiltrate Town'
Islamic State supporters claimed the group had attacked a border post before vanishing into a nearby town.
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Hm, infiltrate and attack are rather very different things.
